Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

[amugs]

State of the stratosphere by Iso therm:

Going forward, I think the pattern evolution is generally in alignment with prior posts, though, time will tell regarding the extent to which the reversal amplifies.

[1] The NAM transition into a predominately negative state has occurred over the past couple weeks, via tropospheric forcing mechanisms [i.e., Kara Sea ridge development, potentially instigated by a couple of background factors], stratospheric polar vortex elongation in response to initial strong wave-1 attack which has warmed the lower/mid stratosphere over the Pacific side of the Pole.

[2] Thus far, the severe -AO has not yielded any snowfall or extreme cold. The upcoming week will feature colder than normal temperatures. The rapid upward trend in both the AO and NAO modalities for the 18th-22nd period is a noted Archambault indicator for enhanced storminess / cyclogenesis along the East Coast. So the detection of a possible storm later in the week would coincide with statistics on prior sharp AO/NAO rises, and severe -AO dailies. However, if the western ridge amplitude is not sufficiently meridional and/or oriented more NE-SW rather than N-S, it will tend to force cyclogenesis too far S/E and push the storm offshore. This remains a possibility due to the off the charts +AAM state which has infused the Pacific Jet with incredible westerly momentum. The AAM tendency has been negative recently, but it is still very high. If the ridge remains amplified, there is enough downstream Atlantic residual blocking to prevent a warm/rainy scenario. Confluence appears strong. Largest risk is a S/E miss, in my view.

[3] The targeted period for robust wave activity [Jan 20-30] will be occurring with the strongest wave-1 pulse to date. Forecasted wave-1 heights, historically speaking, would be sufficient to induce a vortex displacement. Typically, the initial wave-1 hit is separated by a couple weeks of depressed flux prior to the second, stronger pulse. A potent +MT event in East Asia could develop as wave-1 increases concurrently, and this would enhance pressure on the vortex. The one wildcard remains the anomalously strong condition of the vortex this winter, which may require stronger wave activity than is typically needed to force SSWs. With that being said, I think the probability is mod-high for at least a minor SSW, whereby zonal winds slow significantly and 10hpa temperatures rise sharply. I am not certain that we will achieve a major SSW displacement, but the time frame continues to be near the end of January for that potential.

[4] Regardless of stratospheric progression, other tropospheric indicators are suggestive of the overall maintenance of high latitude blocking in February. I expect that the Western ridge reload will be extremely transient. A classic Nino NPAC looks probable for the end of the month with the Aleutian low and +PNA. GWO orbit and heightened AAM state support the aforementioned regime of S/E US troughiness and Rockies ridging as the month closes. The expectation for February continues to be the gradual retrogression of the GOA with a -AO and -NAO in the means. Depending upon the evolution of the stratosphere, this AO/NAO blocking could be either moderately robust or severe / similar in magnitude to the January episode. An official displacement would heighten the probability of protracted blocking.

Overall, it does not appear to me that we are paralleling the Nino winters which were torchy / snowless from front to back. The second half transition still looks on track. January is falling in accordance with the analogs; generally a near normal temperature departures with improved high latitude indicators.

[deadrabbit79]

Dont jinx it!! No Thread until the storm is at least a day away or confirmed!!!

[amugs]

18Z GFS

Looks real good at hour 106 a total phase at hour 100 - my god could this be stronger than 12 Z???

[Abba701]

No way is it confirmed.Not until there is agreement 1-2 days before

[amugs]

HOLY CRAP STRONGER AT 114!!

HERE SHE COMES!!

[sroc4]

I merely want to point out that the energy that will be our storm isn't going to be onshore in the west until Wed. So keep things reigned in for another couple of days. Everything looks great but we have all seen these things trend poorly with less time. There is no doubt that things look amazing. Heck EPS made my eyes well up for a moment, but when I realized it was Sunday and not Wed I wiped the tears and said.... Not yet. 12z Tuesday we will start to see what really is going to happen for better or worse.

[Guest]

>>PLEASE STOP. OR I'm going to drive out to Jersey and bring the croatian Moostafa hex or whatever you call it to you. don't jinx this. be quiet and talk to me in 48 hors. Being in the perfect spot 5 FULL days out is not a good thing!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[amugs]

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[Guest]

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STOP!!!!!  These maps look great for Deleware coast.  see my last post.

This reeks of supresssion

[amugs]

[amugs]

SYO - THEN DONT LOOK!!!

[amugs]

[amugs]

The CCB literally sits from PHL to NYC to CT at 138-150.

An excellent run - chill out SYO!!

[amugs]

A frickin low - mid 980 storm is going to produce greatly even if it ticks a tad east as this run did - no worries at this juncture peeps we still have a good phasing bomb with an almost identical track as the last few runs.

Temper expectations for a 30" bomb here let's be happy with a classic EC snowstorm.

[snow247]

As someone just said on the other board, even the most pessimistic solution (GFS) is now a classic snowstorm.

[NjWeatherGuy]

Shifted a bit south this run. The solutions will continue to change with days to go I dont like being in the bullseye....

[amugs]

12 Z




18 Z

[NjWeatherGuy]

Ok maybe it didn't, the SLP looked further SE but wetter on this run. Last run looked further N but drier and weird precip shield. Maybe Im not seeing it right.

[NjWeatherGuy]

I had a feeling.... from another forum. Offset by a stronger storm but still a difference...

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=275830

[jmanley32]

And the wind is insane.

So we can throw around the B word?

0-60. but those maps rarely verify.Well the euro run verbatim had gusts along coast like 60-70mph, slightly inland 5-

[NjWeatherGuy]

For the most accurate maps look at sustained wind not gusts. Also we have a classic banana HP from the central US over SE Canada if this works out which will provide the wind gradient much more intense than the previous storm where the LP was strong but there was no HP. You can tell by how much tighter the isobars are.

[frank 638]

with crazy winds like that 60mph  or higher this would be I will first blizzard. I'm so excited I hope this is true

[RJB8525]

And the wind is insane.

So we can throw around the B word?

0-60.  but those maps rarely verify.Well the euro run verbatim had gusts along coast like 60-70mph, slightly inland 5-

Holy moley

[Guest]

I had a feeling.... from another forum. Offset by a stronger storm but still a difference...

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=275830

South No?????????????????????????

[lglickman1]

The south east trend?

[jmanley32]

And the wind is insane.

So we can throw around the B word?

0-60.  but those maps rarely verify.Well the euro run verbatim had gusts along coast like 60-70mph, slightly inland 5-

Holy moley

yeah he is right, they do not verify but it gives u am idea the "B" word is a def possibility.

[Mathgod55]

Don't begin to get excited until Wednesday at the earliest. A LONG WAY TO GO with numerous variables.

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