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Long Range Thread 9.0

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 27, 2016 12:14 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
@devsman wrote:Please understand that when I say Sandy was the best storm, I mean it based purely from a meteorological stand point, not the death and destruction it brought. When Frank said Jonas is his number 1, I know he's not saying it because 48 people died from shovelling and carbon monoxide poisoning in their cars.

I'm with you guys and gals.  BEST STORM EVER!!  I had bad damage and flooding to my house.  I had friends and relatives who live on the south shore of LI lose almost everything.  I get it.  DON'T KILL ME HERE...... However there is also a part of me that believes that if you live on the water it's bound to happen sooner or later.  Russian roulette.  What did people expect.  As far as the loss of life goes it's sad.  But just like Katrina people had 2 to 3 days notice to get out. I could have walked to a safe location with that much lead time.  Property and valuables can be replaced, but not lives.  I don't get it.
A lot of those that were harmed or perished refused to leave and were informed by authorities that THEY WERE NOT COMING BACK TO GET THEM! I have a hard time having sympathy for that kind of resilience. I wrothe a whole paper for my final in social work school on Sandy and the mental illness it placed on people and the treatment that could help them. I think people in NY are TOO resilient but since Sandy I do not think people will be so much anymore.

I would heed warning to any kind of evacuation even if not mandatory, I am out...as much as I would want to see the storm its not worth risking my life.
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Post by frank 638 Wed Jan 27, 2016 4:56 pm

Great Lee Goldberg has us in the 50s for the highs from sun till Tues back to boaring weather

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Post by jimv45 Wed Jan 27, 2016 5:02 pm

Back to boring weather its been boring for me this whole winter now its going to be in the 50s no surprise.

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Post by docstox12 Wed Jan 27, 2016 7:24 pm

@jimv45 wrote:Back to boring weather its been boring for me this whole winter now its going to be in the 50s no surprise.

Could be the title of an early 1950's Dragnet episode....."The Big Melt",LOL!
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Post by frank 638 Wed Jan 27, 2016 7:57 pm

nick gregory said winter will be back next thur or fri hopefully we can all get a good snowstorms

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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Jan 27, 2016 8:00 pm

I hope we can get a few that are a few days apart and some sustained cold
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Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 37 Empty last week felt great day time highs were in the 20s and at night it was in the low teens with snow squalls then with a blizzard i hope we see that soon even we get a decent snowstorm i will be happy

Post by frank 638 Wed Jan 27, 2016 8:13 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:I hope we can get a few that are a few days apart and some sustained cold

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 27, 2016 9:15 pm

Too bad there is no blocking because this is setting up to be a phenomenal pattern after the cutter next Wednesday. -EPO, +PNA, -AO. If we can buckle the jet stream over the Atlantic we'll be tracking another Godzilla sooner than later.

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 37 Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_37

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Post by amugs Wed Jan 27, 2016 9:19 pm

AS SROC said Chill out and relax dudes and dudettes cause by the end of next week we will be ready to rock and roll through Feb into mid March is my call. I wrote in banter a quick piece and let me say this since I have been fricking harping on this since October now -

TROP FORCING FTW!!!!!!!!!


another board I belong to posted a map of how strong this wil become and will cancel out the MJO t o a degree during this next timeframe and it will all start after this cutter passes through and then we go back to winter. You all need to remember that when a pattern reloads it is usually stronger - 19078, 1996, 2003, 2009-10, 2013-14, 2014-15 - all examples whether it was a few days or a week it will relax and reload and BOOOOMMMMMMMMMMM!!

In my opinion I see this winter as a repeat of 1978 to a degree - big surprise storm at the end of Jan a relaxation afterwards and then MOMMA MIA - but this nino is stronger so more juice for the storms. Snow goes away but what can we do just take it and move on, it is not your health - wells oem mentals on this board it is for them!!

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Post by Snow88 Wed Jan 27, 2016 9:25 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Too bad there is no blocking because this is setting up to be a phenomenal pattern after the cutter next Wednesday. -EPO, +PNA, -AO. If we can buckle the jet stream over the Atlantic we'll be tracking another Godzilla sooner than later.

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 37 Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_37

DT mentioned about a possible huge storm again right after the cutter . He also compared the pattern right after the cutter to the blizzard we just had.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 27, 2016 9:31 pm

@amugs wrote:AS SROC said Chill out and relax dudes and dudettes cause by the end of next week we will be ready to rock and roll through Feb into mid March is my call. I wrote in banter a quick piece and let me say this since I have been fricking harping on this since October now -

TROP FORCING FTW!!!!!!!!!




another board I belong to posted a map of how strong this wil become and will cancel out the MJO t o a degree during this next timeframe and it will all start after this cutter passes through and then we go back to winter. You all need to remember that when a pattern reloads it is usually stronger - 19078, 1996, 2003, 2009-10, 2013-14, 2014-15 - all examples  whether it was a few days or a week it will relax and reload and BOOOOMMMMMMMMMMM!!

In my opinion I see this winter as a repeat of 1978 to a degree - big surprise storm at the end of Jan a relaxation afterwards and then MOMMA MIA - but this nino is stronger so more juice for the storms. Snow goes away but what can we do just take it and move on, it is not your health - wells oem mentals on this board it is for them!!

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 37 R5231160
The Dateline is going to see a return of negative OLR anomalies and strong westerlies. Definitely a nice looks which further proves sustained cold will return after next week's cutter.

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 27, 2016 9:31 pm

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 37 Olr.cfs.eqtr

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 27, 2016 9:33 pm

@Snow88 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Too bad there is no blocking because this is setting up to be a phenomenal pattern after the cutter next Wednesday. -EPO, +PNA, -AO. If we can buckle the jet stream over the Atlantic we'll be tracking another Godzilla sooner than later.

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 37 Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_37

DT mentioned about a possible huge storm again right after the cutter . He also compared the pattern right after the cutter to the blizzard we just had.

I'm not seeing that. Our last storm featured a huge ULL in the NATL that acted as a block to slow down the progressive flow. We were also in a split flow pattern. I'm not seeing that on guidance as currently modeled. But I'm still optimistic we'll see another big storm before winter ends.

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 27, 2016 9:40 pm

Shouldn't have spoken too soon. Some models do show the -NAO returning. We'll see!

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 37 Test8

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Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Jan 27, 2016 10:06 pm

usually get snow right around my birthday..coming soon...I always loved snow as a kid..but it was hard to have a party..because it always snowed and they would have to be postponed.... Sad
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Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 27, 2016 10:27 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Shouldn't have spoken too soon. Some models do show the -NAO returning. We'll see!

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 37 Test8

Another roidzilla looms

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 27, 2016 10:27 pm

Looms I say

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by dkodgis Wed Jan 27, 2016 10:27 pm

I usually burn three cords of wood during a very cold winter such as the last two. I always burned two cords. This winter, I may not reach one cord. So I too hope we get some white gold just to make it worthwhile to pay the property and school taxes we do for living in a region where there is supposed to be a change of seasons. Nothing like taking the dog for a walk in the woods and hearing dead silence except her skippy feet across the snow or my boots crunching it. The smell of the pine trees in the air...and coming home to flapjacks for breakfast...and that seasonal maple syrup for $50 a half gallon. This year...none of that. Just the high taxes.
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Post by Guest Wed Jan 27, 2016 11:17 pm

I burn every day for heat in my wood burner. It has a naoto magic blower that heats both floors of my house. This year I just am about to finish my first cord. I haven't had to light many fires because of the warm temps

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Post by WOLVES1 Thu Jan 28, 2016 7:22 am

I'm not the only nut burning 24/7 on Long Island.
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Post by Guest Thu Jan 28, 2016 8:53 am

@WOLVES1 wrote:I'm not the only nut burning 24/7 on Long Island.

Shocked Very Happy Shocked Very Happy Shocked Very Happy

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Post by amugs Thu Jan 28, 2016 9:55 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@amugs wrote:AS SROC said Chill out and relax dudes and dudettes cause by the end of next week we will be ready to rock and roll through Feb into mid March is my call. I wrote in banter a quick piece and let me say this since I have been fricking harping on this since October now -

TROP FORCING FTW!!!!!!!!!






another board I belong to posted a map of how strong this wil become and will cancel out the MJO t o a degree during this next timeframe and it will all start after this cutter passes through and then we go back to winter. You all need to remember that when a pattern reloads it is usually stronger - 19078, 1996, 2003, 2009-10, 2013-14, 2014-15 - all examples  whether it was a few days or a week it will relax and reload and BOOOOMMMMMMMMMMM!!

In my opinion I see this winter as a repeat of 1978 to a degree - big surprise storm at the end of Jan a relaxation afterwards and then MOMMA MIA - but this nino is stronger so more juice for the storms. Snow goes away but what can we do just take it and move on, it is not your health - wells oem mentals on this board it is for them!!

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 37 R5231160
The Dateline is going to see a return of negative OLR anomalies and strong westerlies. Definitely a nice looks which further proves sustained cold will return after next week's cutter.

Thanks Frank and those who do not understand this map the OLR is the Outgoing Longwave Radiation here is a link to the site that explain this and where we get our maps from

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/olr.shtml

The outgoing longwave radiation (or the OLR) is the amount of energy emitted to space by Earth. Low values usually indicate cold temperatures while high values are warm areas of the globe.

The minimum in OLR, or the longwave emitted flux near the equator is due to the high cloud tops associated with the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ), a region of persistent thunderstorms. This minimum migrates about the equator as seen in the monthly mean maps, and is also seen as a maximum in albedo. Notice how it is difficult to observe the oceanic stratus regions we observed in the albedo maps. This is because the temperature of the clouds is similar to the surrounding oceans, making it difficult to observe.

This is where I have been harping on and some so not get why we have a break - heck everything in our universe needs a break but remember after teh break is what is going to matter - slow start strong finish - we have been saying this all  along - once and we saw this the last 2 weeks - the Trop forcing takes over then we have an enormous amount of heat that will be rising into our atmosphere at the dateline region in the form of T-storms which will cause MANY things to occur. that said the MANY things are called feed back that you see us talk about here. That feed back means the conditions in the atmosphere react to this heat. Just like fluid dynamics that cold goes to hot - basic principle right so what is happening is teh GOA LP which is cold is fighting itself and saying I want to stay on the west coast but it is now traveling to the light at the end of the tunnel which is this massive amount of heat out by 155W and the dateline. This cold LP is going to what we call retrograde to this region and sit above it hanging out and slowly lose its strength as the warm air advects towards it and start to eat away at it. This will allow the PDO that is in a positive state - warm waters off teh WC of teh USA to rise this raising the Heights in the Alaskan region filing the void of the GOA LP that moved out - it is like my dog - when I get up off the couch she jumps and lays in my spot on the couch. this in turn builds a NEG EPO over Alaska and it draws the cold air from north and west of it thus Siberia or a cross polar flow. The PNA heights rise in the West Coast allowing for storms to come NE or N depending on it orientation for our storms. Thus a trough will build in teh SE and East due to this rise of air and we have a set up that is conducive for storms and cold weather. What else occurs is this massive heat release in teh region can have an effect on the Poles as all of this warm air builds into the Alasakan region I have read that it can help with the dislodging of teh Polar Vortx or splitting. Also, the heat release from the massive and deep snow extent over Siberia - remember rocky my chia pet- also will aid in this process as well. How ? well a massive High Pressure sits over this region thus reflecting teh suns heat (white reflects light and light is heat) into the atmosphere which will add heat to this region which in turn will help again dislodge the PV and also help build a NEG NAO to a degree through feedback. Does it happen all the time like this..............NO! BUT the pieces are their and like with our last Riodzilla this is what we can ask for with this set up. If I missed anything or misinterpreted explained something be my guess and comment or correct me. This is just one mans knowledge plus some trying to keep it simple here peeps.  

So what am I saying..................TROP FORCING FTW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! cheers cheers cheers cheers

Once we can get the pattern to set it is usually stubborn to move from what I have researched - 1958, 1978 (top analogs to a degree) are examples where once they locked in there were weeks of cold and snow storms.


Last edited by amugs on Thu Jan 28, 2016 9:56 am; edited 1 time in total

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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 28, 2016 9:56 am

It looks like my faith of seeing another good pattern is being restored. After some brief analysis, it looks like the LR ensembles do have support from the tropics, with respect to Nino and the MJO, as well as some from the Stratosphere. Convection looks to re-establish itself near the dateline while the MJO, which was originally progged to enter the warm phases with some magnitude, is now being held near Phase 3 and in a relatively muted state. Phase 3 is a cold phase for much of the U.S., including the East, and if it remains muted, allows other factors to easily override its influence. Whether this remains the case in future forecasts remains to be seen, but I like where it's all headed. Where I am getting a little concerned is the Stratosphere, as the EURO has an entirely different idea than what the GFS does, in that it doesn't split it at all through Day 10, and configures it so that we are actually sitting almost under a weak extension of the Stratospheric ridging. While that argues for no true -NAO blocking, we might get lucky with 50/50's or transients, like we recently saw. That said, we DO see the retrogression and consolidation of the Stratospheric ridge over British Columbia through Day 10, which if this is extrapolated supports a stout -EPO/+PNA couplet after Day 10 that should have some staying power. All in all, based on my brief analysis, I expect to see the return of the same type of pattern that we have had the past several years, with a great-looking west, and not-so-great and transient East, which still definitely delivered.

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Post by amugs Thu Jan 28, 2016 11:16 am

This is what I mean from the post I made above look at all the feedback with our trop forcing as depicted in these two maps, the GOA low or vortex of death is going to the light 140 to 155w allowing the heights to bulls on the WC and a trough to build on the EC and SE with some heights rising in pole area fir a neg ao too. Me like

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 37 Eps_z500a_5d_nh_61(22)

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 37 Eps_z500a_nh_61(76)

CAN U SAY RELOAD??

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Post by essexcountypete Thu Jan 28, 2016 1:16 pm

@amugs wrote: Thanks Frank and those who do not understand this map....

Oh yeah, that would be me. Thanks mugs for the details. I think I speak for a lot of newbies, lurkers and enthusiasts here when I say how much I appreciate the time you and others take here to break things down to the basics, not quite laymen's terms maybe, but just right in my eyes. I've learned a lot in the last couple months. Good stuff!
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