Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

[Guest]

................by the way, Boston was forecast to get under 1" last night, but many areas in Ct. and Mass. including the Boston area received 2-3"..

[Quietace]

I thought each step on the model run was 12 hours?  It looks to affect us for 3 slides.  3 X 12 = 36.  Unless I'm looking at the wrong run or have the wrong times.

Models can be ran in any increments they want(Ex HRRR 15 minutes- 30 minutes, or GFS 3 Hours to 12 Hours.)Yet what you are referring to is actually site dependent. Most sites either run the GFS in 6 or 12 hours increments, but it will state so on the stamps.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

................by the way, Boston was forecast to get under 1" last night, but many areas in Ct. and Mass. including the Boston area received 2-3"..

The city of Boston received 0.3 inches from the storm yesterday, it sounds ridiculous to call that a storm, to bring their total to 1.2 inches for the season. We're still all in this together, no reason to envy them this winter. At least not yet.

[Guest]

I thought each step on the model run was 12 hours?  It looks to affect us for 3 slides.  3 X 12 = 36.  Unless I'm looking at the wrong run or have the wrong times.

Models can be ran in any increments they want(Ex HRRR 15 minutes- 30 minutes, or GFS 3 Hours to 12 Hours.)Yet what you are referring to is actually site dependent. Most sites either run the GFS in 6 or 12 hours increments, but it will state so on the stamps.

I looked and JMan was correct. 3 hour increments. quick-hitter

[Guest]

................by the way, Boston was forecast to get under 1" last night, but many areas in Ct. and Mass. including the Boston area received 2-3"..

The city of Boston received 0.3 inches from the storm yesterday, it sounds ridiculous to call that a storm, to bring their total to 1.2 inches for the season. We're still all in this together, no reason to envy them this winter. At least not yet.

Look at all the official reports from around Boston. Mostly south and west. Many 2-3" totals. MAYBE BOSTON HAS THEIR OWN ZOOKEEPER ISSUE!

[sroc4]

Please no one on here take this as a personal shot...I find it amusing that back in November as El Nino slowly peaked people on here were saying that it was going to cool.  Then it did and people were excited.  Now it's warming again and all of a sudden it's not really warming it's just some other scientific mumbo-jumbo causing it.  El Nino is warming waters in the Pacific and that's happening now.  To deny it or make up reasons why it's not really a "true" warming event for some other reason makes us out to sound like the Global Warmers, who only believe the warming events and blame the cooling on a freak event.  We can't deny the facts.  Hell Nino (thanks Doc) has been and will continue to screw winter for all us snow lovers.

Let's not wish-cast.  We're all pissed off and becoming desperate.  Just look at the strength, position and slow movement of this weekends storm and for it to be rain in mid-January with all this cold before and after is a kick in the teeth. It's perfect for an epic all time blizzard.  It's that damn jet plowing into the west coast originating over the warm waters of the Pacific.  That defines el-nino.

BY THE WAY.  GOD I HOPE I'M WRONG AND WIND UP WITH EGG ON MY FACE.  I KNOW IT'S ONLY WEATHER BUT I CAN'T SHAKE THESE BLUES AND NOW IT'S MORPHED INTO ANGER....  Plus a broken heater.  AND the only bar I choose to go to and hang out at since 1997 is closing for good Friday.  Full of blue collar cops, fireman, plumbers, golf course maintenance men etc;  I'm going to miss the 2 dollar pints and priceless conversations of one of the last greatest places of old time AMERICANA on Long Island.

James, classifying El Nino is not merely as simple as sea surface temperatures alone.  The acronym ENSO refers to El Nino Southern Oscillation.  There is no doubt we are still under the influence of a strong El Nino; however, IT IS NOT strengthening.  

But if we want to look at SST anomalies alone lets do that.  As Frank pointed out the SST are clearly fading In all NINO regions including the suburface temps.  


I would also like to reiterate what Frank mentioned yest in that the 1.2 region is MUCH shallower than the other regions, so rapid changes in SST is common.  It already looks like we have plateued and may be coming back down again.  


The only region that is currently warming is Nino region 1.2. and ever so slight in 3.  This was due to as Frank, and myself have pointed out in our most recent write ups by a westerly wind burst in response to a crash in the SOI value.  
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The SOI in case it is unclear is a calculation based on the surface pressure diferences between Tahiti and Darwin Australia.  Just like a Nor Easter off the coast and an HP to the north the greater the pressure gradient between HP and LP influnces the magnitude of wind movement.  When the SOI goes strongly neg a net westery flow takes over in the Trop Pac.  If you picture a fan blowing the surface of the water in the bath tub one could visualize the water piling up on the opposite side of the tub from the fan.  As the fan speed decreases and or stops one could also visualize the water reflexively sloshes back towards where the fan is.  The western shores of S America is the opposite side of the tub. (Refer back to image above) As soon as we see the SOI come back up we will likely see the SST in Nino1.2 region reflexively drop once again.  

If you refer back to the image from my write up one can see there has been a slow steady decline in the 90avg SOI from about -14 in Mid Dec to about -11 currently. This is seen in the column I do not have outlined. I cant remember if the avg SOI index remains below -8 or -10 that that typically characterizes El Nino conditions.  This is another indicator that the Nino is weaking, NOT strengthening.  
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So you are correct when you say we cannot deny the facts, only the facts point more towards a Nino that is weakening.  Remember although an El Nino has been present all fall, we have only really just begun to see atmospheric influnces relative to true ENSO conditions.  If you recall up through the first of the year the atmosphere was behaving more like a Nina event because of the strong MJO pulses in the IO and the exceptionally cold/tight Strat vortex.  You didnt think we were going to get away with out any influnces from one of the strongest Ninos on record did you?

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

................by the way, Boston was forecast to get under 1" last night, but many areas in Ct. and Mass. including the Boston area received 2-3"..

The city of Boston received 0.3 inches from the storm yesterday, it sounds ridiculous to call that a storm, to bring their total to 1.2 inches for the season. We're still all in this together, no reason to envy them this winter. At least not yet.

Look at all the official reports from around Boston.  Mostly south and west.  Many 2-3" totals.  MAYBE BOSTON HAS THEIR OWN ZOOKEEPER ISSUE!

I hear ya but I'm not gonna envy a few isolated towns getting 2 and one town 3 inches of snow. No one east of the Mississippi is doing well snow wise this year, including of course our historically bad winter so far.

Now if Atlanta and Charlotte do get snow this Sunday as Al alluded to, then I truly give up.

[Frank_Wx]

The 12z GFS shows a Godzilla next Friday.

[algae888]

as this pattern relaxes With the nao and ao trending from very low numbers towards positive there's always a chance for big storms.

[Guest]

The 12z GFS shows a Godzilla next Friday.

That was sroc's original date.

[Snowfall]

We may get our big break on Monday it will be awesome to be off with pay and it's snowing. They say you have a better chance getting a wish than hitting powerball

[jmanley32]

Actually Frank for some verbatim its a roidzilla (and this snow totals its not even done yet), not even thinking 10 days out now, learned my forgotten reality lesson with Sat, closest I will think about is Monday.

[algae888]

What a wennie run on todays gfs.lol just when you've given up it tries to reel you back in. Don't believe it! if it was anywhere near close to being correct this winter we'd have over 100 inches of snow by now no other model does this

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

What a wennie run on todays gfs.lol  just when you've given up it tries to reel you back in. Don't believe it!  if it was anywhere near close to being correct this winter we'd have over 100 inches of snow by now no other model does this

Exactly Al, there I am in the jackpot again (eastern Orange County) 10 days out with a projected 30+ inches of snow.  This is the fourth storm this year that I've had that 10 days out, so this storm would theoretically put me at about 120-150 inches so far this season, I have currently measured 0.9 inches. It's laughable.

[jmanley32]

It really is, lets see though how this continues to play out, didn't they upgrade the GFS sheesh waste money.

[Guest]

What a wennie run on todays gfs.lol  just when you've given up it tries to reel you back in. Don't believe it!  if it was anywhere near close to being correct this winter we'd have over 100 inches of snow by now no other model does this

Exactly Al, there I am in the jackpot again (eastern Orange County) 10 days out with a projected 30+ inches of snow.  This is the fourth storm this year that I've had that 10 days out, so this storm would theoretically put me at about 120-150 inches so far this season, I have currently measured 0.9 inches. It's laughable.

Let's not get reeled in again. 9 days out. If it's still there in 5 days I'll pay attention.

[Guest]

Actually Frank for some verbatim its a roidzilla (and this snow totals its not even done yet), not even thinking 10 days out now, learned my forgotten reality lesson with Sat, closest I will think about is Monday.

Just for giggles. Talk about a tight gradient totals range from 2" to 18" across Staten Island!!!

[hyde345]

The 12z GFS shows a Godzilla next Friday.

I don't trust the GFS at all beyond 5 days. Does the Euro show anything in that time frame?

[jmanley32]

Euro has not gotten to 240 hrs yet on wxbell, I will let you know. It does not come together for the MLK storm but look at what sroc just posted in that thread it may be encouraging.

[jmanley32]

Actually Frank for some verbatim its a roidzilla (and this snow totals its not even done yet), not even thinking 10 days out now, learned my forgotten reality lesson with Sat, closest I will think about is Monday.

Just for giggles.  Talk about a tight gradient totals range from 2" to 18" across Staten Island!!!

The snow model is not good at all especially far out, the coast for some reason gets all messed up like the weird protrusion of LI, don't pay it much mind was just for fun.

[RJB8525]

Oh what a wonderful snow map that is!

[algae888]

and the euro brings us back to reality...

[sroc4]

and the euro brings us back to reality...

It actually trended better Al...this was the 00z

[algae888]

scott I don't think so. it looks like it just slowed it down. the next frame on today's 12z would look like 00z from last night. snow produces snow and cutters are going to cut. this pattern has been very stubborn. even though 500mb has changed storm track remains basically the same.

[sroc4]

Looking at the weatherbell maps the low is weaker and there is a 1030+mb HP banana over top. It's 10 days out. I wouldn't worry either way.

[NjWeatherGuy]

This is exactly how this storm looked this far out, not buying anymore GFS eye candy...

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=237&image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_237_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160113+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

[sroc4]

scott I don't think so. it looks like it just slowed it down. the next frame on today's 12z would look like 00z from last night. snow produces snow and cutters are going to cut. this pattern has been very stubborn. even though 500mb has changed storm track remains basically the same.

The reason its slowed down is because HP to the north is much stronger and the ridge out west is more amped.


.



Again way to much time to take anything serious. It will change 18 more times. To many things have to shake out ahead of it first

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