01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call

billg315 wrote:I'm not saying News 12 forecast is wrong, they may be right. But it is inconsistent with the NWS update at 10:37 this morning which issued a blizzard watch for 10-18" in western Monmouth.

Thank you

SoulSingMG wrote:Hearing the 12z CMC is even worse than the GFS.

Confirmed:

Dam RB that cutoff is heading south!! It might be sunny up here if this keeps going!!

UKMET & JMA are both NYC HITS, ukie came north from 00z run

I wonder how Frank and others are going to make final call Snow map with all different outxomes

It looks like at H5 on the CMC the trough is neutral by hr 30 and remains so by hr 42 or so. At that time the Trough actually tilts back pos intead of tilting neg. due to the S/w coming over top of the western ridge forcing it to roll over the ULL. The LP is just set to come up the coast perfectly before it actaully elongates and jumps east. Precip shield is immedietaly strung out. This is all because trough goes from neutral to pos instead of remaining neutral or going neg. Basically the flow becomes progressive and the LP weakens and elongates

[img][/img]

I think this is going to be a south of NYC hit thinking RB?

Real Time lighting.........Big storm in the making for the east Coast

12z GEFS are north.

nutleyblizzard wrote:12z GEFS are north.

GEFS individual member change is quite impressive. Went from 1 or 2 sub 990 lows East of OC MD to having a tremendous amount of them. Moved north notably too.

UKIE FTW - I'll take this and run!!

UKIE Precip Amounts
.6 - .8 Precip for NENJ

.8 - 1" - NYC

And the roller coaster continues....................

sroc4 wrote:It looks like at H5 on the CMC the trough is neutral by hr 30 and remains so by hr 42 or so. At that time the Trough actually tilts back pos intead of tilting neg. due to the S/w coming over top of the western ridge forcing it to roll over the ULL.    The LP is just set to come up the coast perfectly before it actaully elongates and jumps east.  Precip shield is immedietaly strung out. This is all because trough goes from neutral to pos instead of remaining neutral or going neg.  Basically the flow becomes progressive and the LP weakens and elongates

" />

Ridge getting ruined out west huh? Screwed by the active Pacific during a major el nino year. Surprise. Going back to my models rant how can we take anything seriously anymore when in the span of 10 minutes one MAJOR model gives NYC 3 FEET AND ANOTHER 3-6"

amugs wrote:UKIE Precip Amounts
.6 - .8 Precip for NENJ

.8 - 1" - NYC

And the roller coaster continues....................

Mugs I was trying to get an answer from you during last nights chat. How confident is your boy still. the one you coached.

Really good to have the UK on board all I know is this storm is giving me a headache

Don't bite me for this but I just do not understand how southern Westchester (but interior NJ) does not have a blizzard watch yet, we are not far north of the Bronx, its silly, there should at least be a watch IMO. Not go harp on this just gotta watch what unfolds.

Oh and mesoscale models are gonna win out, the globals just seem way too off. Just my guess off what the pros are saying on here.

algae888 wrote:Really good to have the UK on board all I know is this storm is giving me a headache

LOL u and me both Al, how we don't have blizzard wath like I said is silly, we border less than a few miles from the northern most part of Bronx which has one, two miles into my drive to work my location changed and I got the blizzard watch alert lol ur even closer.

[quote="jmanley32"]

algae888 wrote:Really good to have the UK on board all I know is this storm is giving me a headache

LOL u and me both Al, how we don't have blizzard wath like I said is silly, we border less than a few miles from the northern most park, ur even closer.[/quotJust semantics Jman. They have to draw the line somewhere!! Accumulations the same.

syosnow94 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

algae888 wrote:Really good to have the UK on board all I know is this storm is giving me a headache

LOL u and me both Al, how we don't have blizzard wath like I said is silly, we border less than a few miles from the northern most park, ur even closer.[/quotJust semantics Jman.  They have to draw the line somewhere!!  Accumulations the same.

I just do not see it being that far south (this time tomorrow there may be a totally different story, probably will be), we get strong winds when NYC and Bx do (obviously not like the battery but still), I expect it will go north a bit, notice there isn't even anything for CT yet they still have advisory or even watch level snows for NWS.

jmanley32 wrote:Don't bite me for this but I just do not understand how southern Westchester (but interior NJ) does not have a blizzard watch yet, we are not far north of the Bronx, its silly, there should at least be a watch IMO.  Not go harp on this just gotta watch what unfolds.

Jman, we KNEW this would happen! Lol

jmanley32 wrote:

algae888 wrote:Really good to have the UK on board all I know is this storm is giving me a headache

LOL u and me both Al, how we don't have blizzard wath like I said is silly, we border less than a few miles from the northern most part of Bronx which has one, two miles into my drive to work my location changed and I got the blizzard watch alert lol ur even closer.

If the 5 boros were all seperate cities they might just have the blizzard watch for SI, Brooklyn, Queens. But for simplicity sake they keep NYC as a whole. Upper Manhattan, the Bx may already be a stretch. I hope not.

JMA has 1.2-1.6 qpf for NYC and southern WC. This is way not over. Whomever said this will be a nowcast is totally right. Frank its totally nuts that we likely will not know how bad it will be until its near or upon us.

Is there any objective model evidence whether global models or short range models that this will trend more north?

SoulSingMG wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Don't bite me for this but I just do not understand how southern Westchester (but interior NJ) does not have a blizzard watch yet, we are not far north of the Bronx, its silly, there should at least be a watch IMO.  Not go harp on this just gotta watch what unfolds.

Jman, we KNEW this would happen! Lol

LOL, okay I stop, no point in saying stuff, not go change anything. Onto model watching, whatever good that does lol

QPF NYC/NJ area (i-78 to i-195) Less North to more south of course.

SREF: 1.25- 1.55
NAM: 1.75 - 2.05
GFS: 0.55 - 1.45
GEFS: 0.85 - 1.45
RGEM:
GGEM: 0.40 - 0.80
UKMET: 0.85 - 1.50

How do the ukie and JMA look for us HV guys?