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01/23/16 Storm Update #6 - Final Call

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:10 pm

Frank, Sroc, or Ace, here's my second-call (note not Final Call, as I may change it again haha) so could you please add it to the maps thread when you have a second? Thanks!!!

Reason behind my numbers is that while the SREF mean has matched the evolution at H5 the best so far, I am not confident enough to extend the higher totals into the NYC metro and LI areas. Also, my 6-10" zone may be over-done with regard to it's northern extent, but I do think there will be enough areas that reach the low end of that range; this also goes for my 10-15" range across eastern PA, northern NJ, and the southern Hudson Valley, but again, I think there will be enough verifications in the 9-10" to at least justify my thinking. This may also not be my final call, as some of the latest guidance is suggesting that I should bring the 18-24" swath through northeastern NJ, NYC, and LI, as well as the 24-30" swath to where my my 18-24" zone currently is. That said, I think that would be much too high based on the guidance that I've looked at. We'll see.

01/23/16 Storm Update #6 - Final Call - Page 8 Jan22-12

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Post by nutleyblizzard Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:11 pm

Nick Gregory on fox 5 just said he is very concerned. He was talking about the NAM being very persistent run after run along with the current observations. He said that he would be upping his snowfall totals but wanted to look at the GFS first.
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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:14 pm

@weatherwatchermom wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:H5 closed off
Did it close off were you thought it would?

Well, it closed off a little later than I thought, and the contour (according to the Operational EMC RAP from the SPC Meso-scale Analysis) is a bit smaller, but otherwise, I think it's pretty damn close:

01/23/16 Storm Update #6 - Final Call - Page 8 Slide114

01/23/16 Storm Update #6 - Final Call - Page 8 500mb_sf

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Post by SNOW MAN Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:16 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Frank, Sroc, or Ace, here's my second-call (note not Final Call, as I may change it again haha) so could you please add it to the maps thread when you have a second? Thanks!!!

Reason behind my numbers is that while the SREF mean has matched the evolution at H5 the best so far, I am not confident enough to extend the higher totals into the NYC metro and LI areas. Also, my 6-10" zone may be over-done with regard to it's northern extent, but I do think there will be enough areas that reach the low end of that range; this also goes for my 10-15" range across eastern PA, northern NJ, and the southern Hudson Valley, but again, I think there will be enough verifications in the 9-10" to at least justify my thinking. This may also not be my final call, as some of the latest guidance is suggesting that I should bring the 18-24" swath through northeastern NJ, NYC, and LI, as well as the 24-30" swath to where my my 18-24" zone currently is. That said, I think that would be much too high based on the guidance that I've looked at. We'll see.

01/23/16 Storm Update #6 - Final Call - Page 8 Jan22-12


Rb I'm really liking your map for my area. Lets hope it happens. Very Happy
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:19 pm

NWS still with a watch for Orange County for max 6 inches of snow.

TWC just upped my forecast to 10-18 inches. At this point I have no clue as to what to expect here tomorrow. Those gradients are frightening in the HV as I've Harped about for days, they are similar to the blizzard of 96 only further south.

For those of us in the HV the 30 inches the NAM had us with 24 hours ago keeps slowly drifting south and is now in NNJ. This could go blizzard of 96 for parts of the HV, or Juno with the invisible barrier at the TZ bridge.

My biggest concern tomorrow is of course the Conservancy. They only had one minor measurement this year and they failed misreably coming in lower than any surrounding station. I hope they don't F up the big one. Could anything be worse than the zookeeper? Please God I hope not.

It should be very interesting and hopefully not aggravating nowcasting for everyone tomorrow. I'd love to see some records broken somewhere.

Good night all its been a long week.

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Post by SoulSingMG Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:19 pm

Nick Gregory and I are chatting now on Twitter; he's very concerned. 


01/23/16 Storm Update #6 - Final Call - Page 8 Image11
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Post by snow247 Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:26 pm

Currently in the process of updating my snow map. Wow.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:29 pm

This is so exciting I hope it delivers. Nws should make a big change at 1045. 15 min.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:29 pm

@snow247 wrote:Currently in the process of updating my snow map. Wow.
umm ya alot lol
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:30 pm

Gfs started I'm mobile right now.
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Post by algae888 Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:31 pm

RGEM!!!!!!!!!!!!!
01/23/16 Storm Update #6 - Final Call - Page 8 Rgem_asnow_neus_13
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Post by nujerzeedevil Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:32 pm

@billg315 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@billg315 wrote:Gentlemen. I think we're going to need a bigger shovel.

Jaws!  I got it. Lol

Thanks. sometimes I wonder if my humor is out-dated. lol

Nope. This old man got the reference "Brody" Wink
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Post by algae888 Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:33 pm

01/23/16 Storm Update #6 - Final Call - Page 8 Rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_6
01/23/16 Storm Update #6 - Final Call - Page 8 Rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_7
forget the goofus nam lead the way WOW!!!!!
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:33 pm

@algae888 wrote:RGEM!!!!!!!!!!!!!
01/23/16 Storm Update #6 - Final Call - Page 8 Rgem_asnow_neus_13
jackpot al!
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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:35 pm

GFS is WAY north

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Post by algae888 Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:36 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@algae888 wrote:RGEM!!!!!!!!!!!!!
01/23/16 Storm Update #6 - Final Call - Page 8 Rgem_asnow_neus_13
jackpot al!
YESSSS!!!! jman we jackpot!!! give me the rgem any day inside 24hrs but kudos to the NAM!!!!


Last edited by algae888 on Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:36 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:36 pm

The drifts are going to b nuts some doorways nay not b open able.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:36 pm

@algae888 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@algae888 wrote:RGEM!!!!!!!!!!!!!
01/23/16 Storm Update #6 - Final Call - Page 8 Rgem_asnow_neus_13
jackpot al!
YESSSS!!!! jman we jackpot!!! give me the rgem any day inside 48hrs but kudos to the NAM!!!!
2 ft more realistic.
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Post by Vinnydula Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:37 pm

These two threat are driving me nuts can't we just have one
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Post by Vinnydula Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:37 pm

Jman anything near you yet?
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:38 pm

Let me go look.
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Post by SNOW MAN Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:39 pm

@rb924119 wrote:GFS is WAY north

Will you be updating your snow fall map again ?
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Post by Math23x7 Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:39 pm

Hour 16 of the 0Z RGEM!!!! As Frank would say: MADONNE! ROIDZILLA INCOMING!!!!

01/23/16 Storm Update #6 - Final Call - Page 8 Rgemro10

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:40 pm

Not yet.
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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:41 pm

@SNOW MAN wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:GFS is WAY north

Will you be updating your snow fall map again ?

Sorry not sorry yes ahaha

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