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01/23/16 Storm Update #6 - Final Call

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01/23/16 Storm Update #6 - Final Call - Page 4 Empty Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #6 - Final Call

Post by docstox12 Fri Jan 22, 2016 8:33 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:21Z SREFS ain't playing around 

01/23/16 Storm Update #6 - Final Call - Page 4 SREF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f21

01/23/16 Storm Update #6 - Final Call - Page 4 SREF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f24

01/23/16 Storm Update #6 - Final Call - Page 4 SREF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f27

God Bless you.......from us HV folks!
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Post by docstox12 Fri Jan 22, 2016 8:34 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:HRRR snow map - and it's still snowing after this frame

01/23/16 Storm Update #6 - Final Call - Page 4 Acsnw_t3sfc_f24

God Bless you...AGAIN.... from we HV Folks!
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 22, 2016 8:35 pm

Wowowowowow the RAP snow map 

01/23/16 Storm Update #6 - Final Call - Page 4 FB_IMG_1453512800272.thumb.jpg.c803a9df72d8821d938573a092ce4feb

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 22, 2016 8:35 pm

Not gonna lie, today's 15z SREF mean is actually handling the H5 heights the best out of the three models I mentioned above: CMC and NAVY are both too folded over with the ridge and too sharp with the mouth of the trough on both the western and eastern flanks. This might be problematic......in a good way, of course lol

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Post by amugs Fri Jan 22, 2016 8:40 pm

Srefssssssssss FTW oh and how about the hi results nam and 4k nam hmmmmmm come on boys and girls it nailed this!!!!

01/23/16 Storm Update #6 - Final Call - Page 4 Sref_namer_033_precip_p24


Last edited by amugs on Fri Jan 22, 2016 8:44 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by devsman Fri Jan 22, 2016 8:41 pm

But i think it was the NAM that showed the northern jog first. Is it possible the NAM outdid the Globals?
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Post by snow247 Fri Jan 22, 2016 8:42 pm

Speaking of NAM, 00z run just initialized.
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Post by billg315 Fri Jan 22, 2016 8:43 pm

@devsman wrote:But i think it was the NAM that showed the northern jog first. Is it possible the NAM outdid the Globals?

In my mind, if what is now forecast verifies, the NAM definitely wins the prize on this storm. It was consistent for 48 hours when the globals were all over the place.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 22, 2016 8:45 pm

@billg315 wrote:
@devsman wrote:But i think it was the NAM that showed the northern jog first. Is it possible the NAM outdid the Globals?

In my mind, if what is now forecast verifies, the NAM definitely wins the prize on this storm. It was consistent for 48 hours when the globals were all over the place.

100% agree

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 22, 2016 8:52 pm

00z NAM 

white flag  white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag

01/23/16 Storm Update #6 - Final Call - Page 4 NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f14

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Post by Mathgod55 Fri Jan 22, 2016 8:52 pm

Remember what I said 5 days ago? Good waiters get good tips. Enjoy the storm, and thank you Frank!
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Post by snow247 Fri Jan 22, 2016 8:53 pm

NAM going to be good.. again.

EDIT: for NYC on south.


Last edited by snow247 on Fri Jan 22, 2016 8:57 pm; edited 1 time in total
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01/23/16 Storm Update #6 - Final Call - Page 4 Empty Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #6 - Final Call

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 22, 2016 8:53 pm

Hey NJ...GET READ FOR THUNDERSNOW

HOLY SHIT read this DRAG update!
 



 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
  
 
830 PM ESTF CHANGES FOR SATURDAY: ISOLATED TSTMS ARE IN THE FCST  
UP INTO SE PA AND CENTRAL NJ IN STRONG LIFT AND EXPECTED SLANTWISE  
CONVECTION DEVELOPED FM SWI SUBZERO NEAR THE BENT BACK WARMFRONT  
DEVELOPING OCCLUSION EXPECTED JUST S OF 44009 BY NOON SATURDAY.  
 
PROJECTING FOR 930 PM: ADDING SOME ACCUM FOR THE NORTH TWO THIRDS  
OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 930 PM. REPEATING: ADDING WORDING OF GUST  
65 MPH COASTAL SLIVER SATURDAY WHERE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SIGNAL  
AND WE COULD SEE SCATTERED GUST 70 OR EVEN ISOLATED 75 MPH. NEED A  
QUICK CHECK OF THE 00Z/23 NAM AT 9PM BEFORE POSTING.  
 
IN EVENTS THIS EXTREME (NW SIDE OF SFC LOW)...OFTEN SEE SCT HURRICANE  
FORCE GUSTS...IN PART EDDY TRANSFER. WONT BE SURPRISES AT GWAVE OF  
SORTS TOMORROW MORNING BUT FOR NOW...JUST ON THE WATCH FOR THAT.  
HAVENT HAD A CHC TO CHECK THE R# FOR THIS POTENTIAL EDDY TRANSFER.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 22, 2016 8:54 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:00z NAM 

white flag  white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag white flag

01/23/16 Storm Update #6 - Final Call - Page 4 NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f14

Wow to all the 00z so far, maybe I will be closer to 18-24 according to such ones as the RAP and sref
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 22, 2016 8:55 pm

01/23/16 Storm Update #6 - Final Call - Page 4 NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f15

01/23/16 Storm Update #6 - Final Call - Page 4 NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f16

01/23/16 Storm Update #6 - Final Call - Page 4 NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f17

01/23/16 Storm Update #6 - Final Call - Page 4 NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f18

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 22, 2016 8:56 pm

01/23/16 Storm Update #6 - Final Call - Page 4 NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f19

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 22, 2016 8:56 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Hey NJ...GET READ FOR THUNDERSNOW

HOLY SHIT read this DRAG update!
 



 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
  
 
830 PM ESTF CHANGES FOR SATURDAY: ISOLATED TSTMS ARE IN THE FCST  
UP INTO SE PA AND CENTRAL NJ IN STRONG LIFT AND EXPECTED SLANTWISE  
CONVECTION DEVELOPED FM SWI SUBZERO NEAR THE BENT BACK WARMFRONT  
DEVELOPING OCCLUSION EXPECTED JUST S OF 44009 BY NOON SATURDAY.  
 
PROJECTING FOR 930 PM: ADDING SOME ACCUM FOR THE NORTH TWO THIRDS  
OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 930 PM. REPEATING: ADDING WORDING OF GUST  
65 MPH COASTAL SLIVER SATURDAY WHERE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SIGNAL  
AND WE COULD SEE SCATTERED GUST 70 OR EVEN ISOLATED 75 MPH. NEED A  
QUICK CHECK OF THE 00Z/23 NAM AT 9PM BEFORE POSTING.  
 
IN EVENTS THIS EXTREME (NW SIDE OF SFC LOW)...OFTEN SEE SCT HURRICANE  
FORCE GUSTS...IN PART EDDY TRANSFER. WONT BE SURPRISES AT GWAVE OF  
SORTS TOMORROW MORNING BUT FOR NOW...JUST ON THE WATCH FOR THAT.  
HAVENT HAD A CHC TO CHECK THE R# FOR THIS POTENTIAL EDDY TRANSFER.

Will this make it into NYC area, do not really understand what its talk about, I know not the winds but I am hoping to see some thundersnow. I do however think winds all over are go be much higher than expected. This is already looking more and more crazy!
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Post by SoulSingMG Fri Jan 22, 2016 8:56 pm

OMG CCB is just SITTING over us!!!
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 22, 2016 8:57 pm

01/23/16 Storm Update #6 - Final Call - Page 4 NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f20

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Post by devsman Fri Jan 22, 2016 8:58 pm

Gotta give credit to TWC. Usually they are steadfast on their snowfall amounts but they just keep moving that "12-18" inch line up the hudson valley. So glad to get some of you guys in the action again.
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Post by snow247 Fri Jan 22, 2016 8:58 pm

Not as good for us northern posters unfortunately. But definitely a crazy run for NYC on south. Congrats guys.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 22, 2016 8:58 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:OMG CCB is just SITTING over us!!!

Umm ya soul this is a nuts run, sharp cutoff but I am in it, this could be even higher than the higest we have seen so far!
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 22, 2016 8:58 pm

01/23/16 Storm Update #6 - Final Call - Page 4 NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f21

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 22, 2016 8:59 pm

01/23/16 Storm Update #6 - Final Call - Page 4 NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f22

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 22, 2016 8:59 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:01/23/16 Storm Update #6 - Final Call - Page 4 NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f20

jeezea looo! We gotta see some t-snow with that intensity snow.
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