Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

[lglickman1]

is there any excitement about the long range at this point?

[algae888]

Cmc has a huge storm for Presidents Day. GFS not so much

[algae888]

Gefs has the storm. This one could be a Hudson Valley special as it looks like it may hug the coast

[skinsfan1177]

We shall see some feel the pattern becomes to progressive. Only time will tell

[sroc4]

Cmc has a huge storm for Presidents Day. GFS not so much

Ehh typical GFS progressive bias.  Its a little to fast with the trough but its there.  Going to have to see what the HP trends do.  Progressive pattern is possible, but if it phases better it will generate its own cold air. As it looks now the timing of the LP is such that the HP is already on its way out which would mean stale air; no fresh inj of cold air unless it phases.  However, if there is a snow pack still in place...well I shouldn't get too far ahead of myself here.  Signal is there for now.  

CMC:





GFS:

[algae888]

Euro has the storm a day later bombs out right over us don't have temp profiles but mixing issues would be a concern Again a Hudson Valley special

[amugs]

For those who were saying MJO would kill us in Feb -well look again and where we are going?



Trop forcing too strong and block it basically and now we are heading into teh colder phase even though we were suppose to be in a warm - hmmm 0 to Neg 5 in a warm phase of mjo albeit weak??

[skinsfan1177]

Great news mugs also rb mentioned toward end of month has him very interested can anyone else see that

[algae888]

For those who were saying MJO would kill us in Feb -well look again and where we are going?



Trop forcing too strong and block it basically and now we are heading into teh colder phase even though we were suppose to be in a warm - hmmm 0 to Neg 5 in a warm phase of mjo albeit weak??

mugs look where the gfs takes us!!!

[amugs]

Algae - Nice !! Strong Phase 7 = epicness if it happens!!
Look at this from Ventrice - phase 4&5 in a Godzilla Nino and look at the east - LIAR LIAR WEST IS ON FIRE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! It should be the other way around - to bad suckers!!!

[frank 638]

the next storm for next week on Tuesday do you think this storm will be like last year's storm from snow to sleet freezing rain back to snow

[skinsfan1177]

Is their a chance Saturday or is that dead.

[Frank_Wx]

Saturday updated in February thread. Technically it's not long range. 

Next week is still on the table. EURO has a rainstorm while GFS is cold and out to sea. We'll look into the 16th more on Thursday.

[rb924119]

MJO phase 7 is warm for the East in February, and will likely be partly responsible for the warmup next week. I posted earlier in this thread about this, BUT where the MJO goes after phase 7 (I.e. Phases 8-2/3) at a strong amplitude aided by ENSO and another battering of Stratospheric flux transfer to upset the PV (again) that will lead to another below-normal and stormy stretch starting around the 21-24th time-period, which is why I'm very excited for that period and another possible large storm threat.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Euro has the storm a day later bombs out right over us don't have temp  profiles but mixing issues would be a concern Again a Hudson Valley special

There's no such thing Al, It's a myth that died in 2012.

[snow247]

00z GFS and CMC both have a snowstorm next week FWIW.

[skinsfan1177]

Ok so GFS came on board it was way out to sea earlier. Good news more to track

[frank 638]

National weather service has snow for Mon night into Tues then changeing to freezing rain to rain that will change I want a snow storm

[sroc4]

For me the last 2 weeks, and the next 2-4weeks is like a rugby scrum amongst the main drivers of the pattern.  On one side you have a strong el nino, and an MJO in the warm phases, and on the other side you have stratospheric influences, the +PDO, +PNA, -EPO, at times -AO.  You get a push from one side, then a push back from the other.  Overall however, the latter influences have been slowly winning out as the winter has progressed leading to shorter warm ups, and more in the way of colder and snowier pattern.  Unfort this past week did not produce as much snow for everyone as their was potential, but overall it did produce 3 waves within a short time.  That same potential exists again after next weeks brief warm up.  

I have been tracking the MJO since our last discussion on it when many were canceling winter back at the end of Jan, and I and a few others stated how some of the other drivers are likely to mute the MJO's influence on North America.  Well that has def occurred; esp seeing is that this weekend is going to be potentially record breaking cold despite being smack dab in themiddle of one of the warmest phases of the MJO.   

We will see the NE warm back up again midweek next week for a few days.  NOW HEAR THIS:  This WILL NOT be the end of winter!!  Just like the first 5days of Feb the warm up will be another reload.  It will set us back up again for the final push of winter.  Yes I know many of my HV and NW peeps winter really never has shown up, but in general given the strength of such an El Nino and the amount of time we have spent in unfavorable MJO phases, this winter has and will cont to exceed expectations.  I am sitting at a tick above 30" for the season and still very confidently expect to see 50+ IMBY by April 1st.  

Here is the MJO forecasts for the Euro only beginning back on Jan 31st.  I cont to believe that the MJO influences will be tempered by the other drivers; however, as Rb has eluded to when/IF the MJO makes it into some of the colder phases and the MJO and other divers for cold and snow actually align, the last 7-10ays of Feb into the first 2 weeks of march eally could be special.  I will hold the phone on going any further at this point.  

One last point and once again is an extremely important one.  Models will not have a handle on what is to happen beyond mid week next week through next weekend and beyond because the atmosphere will be undergoing the reload.  They NEVER have a handle on the LR during those time periods, so DO NOT PANIC NEXT WEEK WHEN LOOKING AT THE LR MODELING!!!!  One last hoorah OF AT LEAST 2-3WEEKS IS COMING. I think before we call it a season.

[amugs]

MJO phase 7 is warm for the East in February, and will likely be partly responsible for the warmup next week. I posted earlier in this thread about this, BUT where the MJO goes after phase 7 (I.e. Phases 8-2/3) at a strong amplitude aided by ENSO and another battering of Stratospheric flux transfer to upset the PV (again) that will lead to another below-normal and stormy stretch starting around the 21-24th time-period, which is why I'm very excited for that period and another possible large storm threat.

Ray, true but look at phase 4 and 5 and 6 for the east and what we've had - those are all out torches. In this winter nino and strong trop forcing nothing is going by the book

[weatherwatchermom]

For me the last 2 weeks, and the next 2-4weeks is like a rugby scrum amongst the main drivers of the pattern.  On one side you have a strong el nino, and an MJO in the warm phases, and on the other side you have stratospheric influences, the +PDO, +PNA, -EPO, at times -AO.  You get a push from one side, then a push back from the other.  Overall however, the latter influences have been slowly winning out as the winter has progressed leading to shorter warm ups, and more in the way of colder and snowier pattern.  Unfort this past week did not produce as much snow for everyone as their was potential, but overall it did produce 3 waves within a short time.  That same potential exists again after next weeks brief warm up.  

I have been tracking the MJO since our last discussion on it when many were canceling winter back at the end of Jan, and I and a few others stated how some of the other drivers are likely to mute the MJO's influence on North America.  Well that has def occurred; esp seeing is that this weekend is going to be potentially record breaking cold despite being smack dab in themiddle of one of the warmest phases of the MJO.   

We will see the NE warm back up again midweek next week for a few days.  NOW HEAR THIS:  This WILL NOT be the end of winter!!  Just like the first 5days of Feb the warm up will be another reload.  It will set us back up again for the final push of winter.  Yes I know many of my HV and NW peeps winter really never has shown up, but in general given the strength of such an El Nino and the amount of time we have spent in unfavorable MJO phases, this winter has and will cont to exceed expectations.  I am sitting at a tick above 30" for the season and still very confidently expect to see 50+ IMBY by April 1st.  

Here is the MJO forecasts for the Euro only beginning back on Jan 31st.  I cont to believe that the MJO influences will be tempered by the other drivers; however, as Rb has eluded to when/IF the MJO makes it into some of the colder phases and the MJO and other divers for cold and snow actually align, the last 7-10ays of Feb into the first 2 weeks of march eally could be special.  I will hold the phone on going any further at this point.  

One last point and once again is an extremely important one.  Models will not have a handle on what is to happen beyond mid week next week through next weekend and beyond because the atmosphere will be undergoing the reload.  They NEVER have a handle on the LR during those time periods, so DO NOT PANIC NEXT WEEK WHEN LOOKING AT THE LR MODELING!!!!  One last hoorah OF AT LEAST 2-3WEEKS IS COMING.  I think before we call it a season.  

thanks for you words that always bring us back from the edge of that cliff! after the last couple of days I have been edging closer to the cliff..and I generally am a glass half full kind of gal have a great day!!

[rb924119]

No I know; I'm agreeing with you. I think you're missing my point haha Scott's post above really puts it in perspective. I'm not saying that the MJO has been driving our pattern so far, because let's face it; it hasn't been able to. The ENSO forcing has been dominating the tropical signal because of the convection that has been slowly organizing itself near the Dateline. Once the MJO finally left the colder phases in mid-January, it became relatively muted because the stronger ENSO forcing was muting it. See, the descending branch of the ENSO circulation corresponds roughly to phases 2-4, and so far, that's where we have seen the MJO fall back in intensity to near or inside the Circle of Death. My point is that now that it is progged to finally start progressing through the phases again, it will likely remain weak UNTIL it reaches phase 7 toward the middle of next week, when it will finally start to feel the effects of the ascending branch of the ENSO circulation. This also happens to be at the exact same time that the Aleutian low will shift eastward, we lose the effects of the Stratospheric fluxes which are ending about now which will allow the PV to temporarily reorganize around the Pole, and our favorable amplified pattern temporarily adjusts as a response. So, you have all of these large-scale factors that are aligning to TEMPORARILY promote ridging and warmth in the East. By the same token, and this is going by what I remember seeing a few days ago before I/we got distracted by this "system", the same MJO pulse was progged to enter phase 8 (which is a cold phase for the East in February) at the same time that more Stratospheric fluxes will be disturbing the PV again and reorienting it, probably favorably, the Aleutian low returns to its favorable position, and we see the return of our favorable -EPO, +PNA, -AO triplet, with possible periods of -NAO transient blocks. With the tropical forcings, both ENSO itself and the MJO pulse entering phase 8 at increasing amplitude AIDED BY ENSO, in addition to the resetting of the Aleutian low and PV disruption, this should allow for another pattern reset and large storm chance around the 21st-24th. That's what I'm saying haha I hope that clarifies a little, but if not, follow-up and let's continue the disco lmao

[amugs]

Great clarity Ray - thanks for posting.

[keliza52]

Thank you Sroc for the detailed explanation.   I feel much better now.   You don't hear from me much I too was on the edge of that cliff!

_____
Karen

[sroc4]

Thank you Sroc for the detailed explanation.   I feel much better now.   You don't hear from me much I too was on the edge of that cliff!

_____
Karen

Karen and weatherwatchermom. Obv I cant tell you if an individual backyard will get more snow but the chances should be there.

[algae888]

So far today's model runs are blah. Monday Tuesday looks like a snow to rain at this point. Then a brief warm up hopefully we get cold again with one last shot at this winter. I don't know if it's too early yet to talk about the winter of 16/17 but with El Nino weekening slower than expected next year may end up with a week Nina. Similar to 94/95 nino then 95/96 weak nina. I'm hearing 95/96 is the best analog for next winter.

[jmanley32]

So far today's model runs are blah. Monday Tuesday looks like a snow to rain at this point. Then a brief warm up hopefully we get cold again with one last shot at this winter. I don't know if it's too early yet to talk about the winter of 16/17 but with El Nino weekening slower than expected next year may end up with a week Nina. Similar to 94/95 nino then 95/96 weak nina. I'm hearing 95/96 is the best analog for next winter.

Do not recall was that a good winter? Yeah at this point sorry guys but its just been big disappointments since last Friday, and the future weeks sound bleak before we get into nearing springtime. Honestly I am ready for spring. And bring on hurricane season LOL, I hear it may be a doozy

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