Long Range Thread 10.0
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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0
So far today's model runs are blah. Monday Tuesday looks like a snow to rain at this point. Then a brief warm up hopefully we get cold again with one last shot at this winter. I don't know if it's too early yet to talk about the winter of 16/17 but with El Nino weekening slower than expected next year may end up with a week Nina. Similar to 94/95 nino then 95/96 weak nina. I'm hearing 95/96 is the best analog for next winter.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0
algae888 wrote:So far today's model runs are blah. Monday Tuesday looks like a snow to rain at this point. Then a brief warm up hopefully we get cold again with one last shot at this winter. I don't know if it's too early yet to talk about the winter of 16/17 but with El Nino weekening slower than expected next year may end up with a week Nina. Similar to 94/95 nino then 95/96 weak nina. I'm hearing 95/96 is the best analog for next winter.
Do not recall was that a good winter? Yeah at this point sorry guys but its just been big disappointments since last Friday, and the future weeks sound bleak before we get into nearing springtime. Honestly I am ready for spring. And bring on hurricane season LOL, I hear it may be a doozy
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0
algae888 wrote:So far today's model runs are blah. Monday Tuesday looks like a snow to rain at this point. Then a brief warm up hopefully we get cold again with one last shot at this winter. I don't know if it's too early yet to talk about the winter of 16/17 but with El Nino weekening slower than expected next year may end up with a week Nina. Similar to 94/95 nino then 95/96 weak nina. I'm hearing 95/96 is the best analog for next winter.
Not a matter of if we get one last shot at winter Al. Its a matter of how awesome. A little awesome or alot awesome: Not wishcasting.
Hi at upper level sudden strat warming: Almost to 2009/10. A little later than then but I think with enough time to go out with a 3-5 week bang. Nino is collapsing as well.
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0
Jman really 95/96 75" and the historic blizzard. Actually if Central Park measured right it would have been over 80 inchesjmanley32 wrote:algae888 wrote:So far today's model runs are blah. Monday Tuesday looks like a snow to rain at this point. Then a brief warm up hopefully we get cold again with one last shot at this winter. I don't know if it's too early yet to talk about the winter of 16/17 but with El Nino weekening slower than expected next year may end up with a week Nina. Similar to 94/95 nino then 95/96 weak nina. I'm hearing 95/96 is the best analog for next winter.
Do not recall was that a good winter? Yeah at this point sorry guys but its just been big disappointments since last Friday, and the future weeks sound bleak before we get into nearing springtime. Honestly I am ready for spring. And bring on hurricane season LOL, I hear it may be a doozy
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0
I hear 1996 and I almost pass out of excitement. If I remember correctly I had 17 different snow events including the great blizzard for a total of 96" for the season. By far most memorable best winter ever!
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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0
Too bad I was five years old and too young to appreciate the 1995-96 winter. All I can tell you snow wise was that I briefly gazed out the window on January 7th, 1996 before I resumed playing my computer game. I know specifically what game I was playing but I'm sure many people have never heard of it. I know the day before the storm what game I was playing specifically as well. It's a game more known than the other one, but many of you probably don't know about it. After all, they were MS-DOS games!
Math23x7- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0
syosnow94 wrote:I hear 1996 and I almost pass out of excitement. If I remember correctly I had 17 different snow events including the great blizzard for a total of 96" for the season. By far most memorable best winter ever!
That was a great vintage. If it was wine it would sell for Trump dollars. No, I take that back, even he could not afford it.
Grselig- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0
Blizzard of 96 was the greatest snowstorm I ever lived through. I was living in an apartment complex in Bloomfield at the time. Received 30 inches! Unfortunately I was stuck inside with major foot surgery so I could not enjoy it.
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0
syosnow94 wrote:I hear 1996 and I almost pass out of excitement. If I remember correctly I had 17 different snow events including the great blizzard for a total of 96" for the season. By far most memorable best winter ever!
1995-96 is the BIG KAHUNA, BIGGEST BADEST ASS, THE EPITOME OF WINTERS - IT STARTED SNOWING AFTER THANKSGIVING AND DID NOT STOP UNTIL LATE NARCH.
17 Snowstorms - Epic Crippling Blizzard in early Jan and we had a massive warm up for 3-4 days with a massive cutter that flooded the hell out of us - roofs collapsed, water leaked into homes like a sieve and this changed building codes forever in this area - ice dam membranes on roofs, 2x8 floor joists, also ice laws for cars and trucks - if roof tops not cleared you would get a ticket. I had 16' mounds of snow on street corners - front bucket loaders being a rarity where getting $1G a day to rent - operater got $500 - 8 hours max 4 hours min. 9 days off from school, 3 delayed and 4 early dismissals
I do not know if this is what will happened next winter but I sure as hell woudl be out of my frickin mind if such came to fruition!!
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Mugs
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0
95/96 was the best winter who would ever forget the jan blizzard of 96 where I had 30 inches of snow in the Bronx schools were shut down for 2 days my father and I would take the snow out of my driveway and the rest my house and put it in the street .snowstorm s would last till early April .even the first home opener of the Yankee game was canceled due to a snow storm of 4 inches NYC ended up 76 inches of snow I hope we see that again
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0
The irony that the greatest winter ever was followed by the worst 4 year period for snow in our history.
The winter of 95/95 saw 76-82 inches at the NYC reporting stations, 100-125 inches in most of the HV, 112 IMBY, 80-100 inches on LI, and 80-100 through most of NNJ.
As mugs stated in the HV there was snow cover from November through April. That is currently the only season that saw 5 consecutive months of 10 inches or more snow at one of the official LI stations I believe Brookhaven. The only place shafted that winter was central and southern NJ shore areas which saw 20-40 inches but still above normal for them.
Just an epic winter as compared to this sorry ass, POS, it shouldn't even be referred to as winter, winter.
The winter of 95/95 saw 76-82 inches at the NYC reporting stations, 100-125 inches in most of the HV, 112 IMBY, 80-100 inches on LI, and 80-100 through most of NNJ.
As mugs stated in the HV there was snow cover from November through April. That is currently the only season that saw 5 consecutive months of 10 inches or more snow at one of the official LI stations I believe Brookhaven. The only place shafted that winter was central and southern NJ shore areas which saw 20-40 inches but still above normal for them.
Just an epic winter as compared to this sorry ass, POS, it shouldn't even be referred to as winter, winter.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0
nam shows all snow for mon night into tues morning
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0
frank 638 wrote:nam shows all snow for mon night into tues morning
I'm not sure what you're looking at Frank but todays 18Z NAM would not go out that far. Maybe another model?
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0
Euro shows phase 8 by Feb 25th - from JB the Australian Model says it i sby the 22nd and stays in this phase for 3 weeks before going to 1 and 2 which would be cold and stormy too for March
Last edited by amugs on Wed Feb 10, 2016 5:00 pm; edited 2 times in total
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Mugs
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0
I am not to good reading the weather models i was looking at the nam and it should the future cast from now till next Thursday
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:The irony that the greatest winter ever was followed by the worst 4 year period for snow in our history.
The winter of 95/95 saw 76-82 inches at the NYC reporting stations, 100-125 inches in most of the HV, 112 IMBY, 80-100 inches on LI, and 80-100 through most of NNJ.
As mugs stated in the HV there was snow cover from November through April. That is currently the only season that saw 5 consecutive months of 10 inches or more snow at one of the official LI stations I believe Brookhaven. The only place shafted that winter was central and southern NJ shore areas which saw 20-40 inches but still above normal for them.
Just an epic winter as compared to this sorry ass, POS, it shouldn't even be referred to as winter, winter.
CP Could you please compare for us if you will this winter to the winter of 1996. I'm not quite sure there's many differences. How do you really feel?
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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0
syosnow94 wrote:CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:The irony that the greatest winter ever was followed by the worst 4 year period for snow in our history.
The winter of 95/95 saw 76-82 inches at the NYC reporting stations, 100-125 inches in most of the HV, 112 IMBY, 80-100 inches on LI, and 80-100 through most of NNJ.
As mugs stated in the HV there was snow cover from November through April. That is currently the only season that saw 5 consecutive months of 10 inches or more snow at one of the official LI stations I believe Brookhaven. The only place shafted that winter was central and southern NJ shore areas which saw 20-40 inches but still above normal for them.
Just an epic winter as compared to this sorry ass, POS, it shouldn't even be referred to as winter, winter.
CP Could you please compare for us if you will this winter to the winter of 1996. I'm not quite sure there's many differences. How do you really feel?
I will try to be clearer in future posts.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0
PD TRES??
HVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVV SPECIAL HERE???????
HVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVV SPECIAL HERE???????
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0
i hope and pray this comes true for our snow deprived bros and sistas in EPA and HV!!
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0
I agree mugs it's long overdue and well deserved. I ask once again come on Snow Gods!amugs wrote:i hope and pray this comes true for our snow deprived bros and sistas in EPA and HV!!
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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i am praying with you i hope this turns out to be a cold and snowy stormy
amugs wrote:i hope and pray this comes true for our snow deprived bros and sistas in EPA and HV!!
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0
12z para nice for all!!!
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0
amugs wrote:i hope and pray this comes true for our snow deprived bros and sistas in EPA and HV!!
Drinks are on me if this verifies!!
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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0
algae888 wrote:12z para nice for all!!!
What did 12z Euro show?
hyde345- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0
euro was a rain storm if the euro verifies we go from near zero to 40"s and rain in 36 hours. plenty of frustrated folks if it's right
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0
algae888 wrote:euro was a rain storm if the euro verifies we go from near zero to 40"s and rain in 36 hours. plenty of frustrated folks if it's right
BOO
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