Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

[Dunnzoo]

Hearing similar thoughts from other sources. Sounds promising, alas, I will be tracking from Florida!

[skinsfan1177]

I'm thinking this can go either way it's looking more and more like a coastal. But some think it could take a BM track or a tad east of it or west of it. track everyone see the white gold

[nutleyblizzard]

Where's Frank???

[Bkdude]

Yeah??? Where the heck is he??

[RJB8525]

Ugh Mr G was on hr was going through what each model is showing for next week

That's really starting to annoy me when they do this

[jake732]

I don't know but this looks like more of a rain event. Am I wrong??

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

I don't know but this looks like more of a rain event. Am I wrong??

It could be anything right now, it's 7 days away.

You're the central Jersey shore correct? Not a great place to be right now but If I were a betting man I wouldn't bet against you either. Skins seems to be a snow magnet.

[dkodgis]

Where is Frank? Hopefully the young man is out having a bit of fun and lifting a few brewskis and surrounded by good company.

[Math23x7]

I just got a message from Frank.  He is in the hospital having gone from the flu to the stomach virus....

[Math23x7]

He said he won't be back until late tomorrow or Friday.....

[SNOW MAN]

euro snow map for you cp and snowman...

All I can say is. Heart be still. The problem is it's days away and as we all know things can change.

[SNOW MAN]

BTW sorry this is noit LR but how do I find out what my average snowfall should be? am I close enough to NYC to go by that, but then again more times than not I see more snow than NYC, aside from Jonas.

JMAN.

Your about 10 miles north of Central Park geographically so add about 2-3 inches to these averages.

The 30 year average in CPK is 25.8
The 146 year average is 28.8
The running 30 yr average is 28.6
The average since Jan 2001 is 34.0 inches.

CP, I love the new picture on your post. I have dreams of snow like that. What a beautiful shot. To me there's nothing like a picture of a landscape covered in a mantle of white. Sroc and Nutleyblizzard (his old picture) pictures are some one of my favorites. The only thing is I haven't seen much of that white gold this year in my own back yard.

[SNOW MAN]

The Mets out at Penn State gave their 30 day outlook last night. According to them temperatures would see saw from now until the middle of March and the Artic chill will be right to our North. They also stated that there will be at least one major East coast storm threat in this period. As one of the Mets put it that could come as early as next week.
 Yet when I watched the local TV Mets in my area and Philly they were saying that temps look to be above normal starting this weekend right into March. Very confusing to say the least.


Lets all hope Frank is feeling better. We need his Mo-Mo. Get well soon Frank.

[skinsfan1177]

EPS mean tracks a sub 998 low over the benchmark

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Almost all of the models last night did not trend well. Even the ones over the bench mark still have warm solutions. You have to go pretty far inland to get snow out of any of them.

With 6-7 days to go I still wouldn't buy any solution.

Get better Frank because unless I'm talking statslistical analysis of past climatology or weather events I don't kno what the hell in talking about interpreting model runs.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

BTW sorry this is noit LR but how do I find out what my average snowfall should be? am I close enough to NYC to go by that, but then again more times than not I see more snow than NYC, aside from Jonas.

JMAN.

Your about 10 miles north of Central Park geographically so add about 2-3 inches to these averages.

The 30 year average in CPK is 25.8
The 146 year average is 28.8
The running 30 yr average is 28.6
The average since Jan 2001 is 34.0 inches.

CP, I love the new picture on your post. I have dreams of snow like that. What a beautiful shot. To me there's nothing like a picture of a landscape covered in a mantle of white. Sroc and Nutleyblizzard (his old picture) pictures are some one of my favorites. The only thing is I haven't seen much of that white gold this year in my own back yard.

Snow man. I was looking at pictures I took after the February 2010 SNOWICANE last night and I picked one I took outside my front door the day after it ended. 35 inches from that storm and the picture is a day later after some compacting. I wish I had taken the shot immediately after it ended. After the blizzard of 1996!that is my second favorite storm of all time.

[frank 638]

Frank I hope u are feeling better and come out of the hospital soon .I hate when the models go back and fourth we really need a nice Godzilla or more

[Radz]

I just got a message from Frank.  He is in the hospital having gone from the flu to the stomach virus....

Get well soon Frank, hopefully they are keeping you hydrated and you'll be good as new in no time!

[frank 638]

Bill evens mentioned for wed we could have a slope storm

[docstox12]

Well, there is some possibility for next week and I'm glad I'm in the HV as this looks to be a mix to my south.The absolutely knock out beautiful Amy Freese mentioned last night it depends on how fast cold air works in to the storm.( Lee can take as LONG as he wants off as long as Amy replaces him, heh,heh,heh)

Geez, Frank, so sorry to hear about being in the hospital.Hope you have some gorgeous young nurses attending to your needs!Get well soon, we need you here!

[skinsfan1177]

Models are all over the place Still lots of time here also their is something showing up Sunday . Could this help setup a 50/50 low for weds

[Grselig]

Feel better Frank!!!!!

[rb924119]

I'm starting to get concerned that this next potential system **could** end up cutting similarly to the one that we just went through. Disregarding the surface maps, and even the 500 hPa maps for a second, this is why:

Earlier on, we were supposed to have a +PNA/-EPO/-AO triplet to work with, with added benefits from the MJO being enhanced by the ENSO signal in phase 8 at the time of this storm. More recent guidance is suggesting that now the triplet that was progged initially will now be near neutral with the EPO/AO signal, with only the PNA remaining favorable. The MJO is also a concern now, as it is being projected to remain solidly in phase 7 at a decent amplitude while this storm is developing. Phase 7 promotes ridging in the East, and my concern is that now with the AO and more specifically the EPO signal being muted, we might not get enough of a cold push FAST ENOUGH to allow this to go up the coast or further east. I also don't like the look of the Stratosphere, as we had assistance from that for the other systems that we have had to date. This time, we will not be under a Stratospheric trough, which leads me to believe that we will not have truly arctic air infiltrating the region at all levels. Maybe at the surface, but aloft it will make things a whole lot easier to warm. With all of this said, things can still change; wildly. For example, a trend this season has been to expand the western ridging within 84 hours of the events, which would help our EPO. MJO modeling has been HORRENDOUS this year, so that could end up in phase 3 by this time next week for all we know. Lastly, if we see good trends with the previous two things, we may not need help from the Stratosphere at all in order to get this to work. Have to just wait and see, ladies and gents.

[rb924119]

Another option on the table is that the two pieces at H5 could remain separate entities entirely, with the first one that cuts, and then the second one that dives deeper into the South and rides the baroclinic zone created and shifted by the first. This could be supported by the current observations that I stated were a concern of mine (not enough ridging/troughing to force the second one to dive, catch the first fro the STJ, and phase).

[weatherwatchermom]

RB Bernie rayno alluded to this possibility as well yesterday

[Frank_Wx]

Thanks everyone for the well wishes. These last 10 days have been a nightmare. I'm still in the hospital but should be discharged later today. The nurses at St. Barnabas are amazing! 

Since I'm on mobile I can't provide too much of an update for next week's storm. I will say change at 500mb is VERY ugly. When I first analyzed this storm a couple days ago I showed western ridge with northern and southern stream energy phasing over the EC. Now, the southern stream energy is being modeled to slow down (due to its intensity) so the northern stream has nothing to work with. Also, the ridge is collapsing on some models where before it was pretty amplified. 

If this becomes all Gulf / STJ driven with no northern stream to drop in and supply cold air, we're looking at a possible deluge of rain. We also have to pay attention to where HP sets up. If it's over NW Atlantic this could set the path of the storm to track to our west. That said, there's another HP in southern Canada and trying to move east. If it's over the Great Lakes or NY state by the time the storm arrives then that would prevent it from cutting. 

Let's hope 500mb trends back to how it looked 2 days ago.

[moleson]

I don't post much, if at all, but just wanted to wish Frank a big Get Well. Your absence on this board is extremely notable.

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