Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

[amugs]

VERIFY PLEASE OH PLEASE VERIFY:
6-10 DAYS


PARA SAYS SO



11-15 DAYS - HOLY MAP !!

[sroc4]

GFS and CMC inland traqcks, Euro on its own.  Doesn't seem to look gr8, am I wrong? I remember some people saying the Euro has been aweful this season.?

Dont be surprised to see waffling with all the models over the next few days

[amugs]

GFS and CMC inland traqcks, Euro on its own.  Doesn't seem to look gr8, am I wrong? I remember some people saying the Euro has been aweful this season.?

WHAT??? WE HAVE 100 -120 HOURS UNTIL WE NAIL THIS DOWN. THE HANDLING OF THE PV LOCATION IS BIG HERE AS IS THE PHASE. THE CMC AND GFS SAY THE WAR - WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE - PRESSES ON US - EURO SAYS NO GET OUT OF HERE WITH THAT WAR AND IT DOES SO WITH A SYSTEM ON MONDAY.
EURO AND PARA ARE 1&2 FOR US THIS WINTER IN VERIFICATION SCORES FROM WHAT I HAVE READ AND YES IT BLEW SOME STORMS. AND HAD A BAD STRETCH BUT HOPEFULLY IT IS COMING BACK.
WE SHALL SEE.

[amugs]

EPS LOOKS GOOD

[jmanley32]

GFS and CMC inland traqcks, Euro on its own.  Doesn't seem to look gr8, am I wrong? I remember some people saying the Euro has been aweful this season.?

Dont be surprised to see waffling with all the models over the next few days

Yeah sorry just been in a bad mood was hoping see some fun model runs, work been murder.

[jmanley32]

GFS and CMC inland traqcks, Euro on its own.  Doesn't seem to look gr8, am I wrong? I remember some people saying the Euro has been aweful this season.?

WHAT??? WE HAVE 100 -120 HOURS UNTIL WE NAIL THIS DOWN. THE HANDLING OF THE PV LOCATION IS BIG HERE AS IS THE PHASE. THE CMC AND GFS SAY THE WAR - WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE - PRESSES ON US - EURO SAYS NO GET OUT OF HERE WITH THAT WAR AND IT DOES SO WITH A SYSTEM ON MONDAY.
EURO AND PARA ARE 1&2 FOR US THIS WINTER IN VERIFICATION SCORES FROM WHAT I HAVE READ AND YES IT BLEW SOME STORMS. AND HAD A BAD STRETCH BUT HOPEFULLY IT IS COMING BACK.
WE SHALL SEE.

ahh mugs your persistent optimism helps us along : )

[New Yorker 234]

I am due to fly back into LGA Monday afternoon the 22nd. Any indication that the weather that afternoon will be such that I should try to change to a morning flight or even a Sunday night before flight?

Thanks.

[jmanley32]

BTW sorry this is noit LR but how do I find out what my average snowfall should be? am I close enough to NYC to go by that, but then again more times than not I see more snow than NYC, aside from Jonas.

[jmanley32]

I am due to fly back into LGA Monday afternoon the 22nd. Any indication that the weather that afternoon will be such that I should try to change to a morning flight or even a Sunday night before flight?

Thanks.

As mugs reminded me we have neaqrly 5 days still to go so IMO to make travel plan changes not yet.

[Dtone]

BTW sorry this is noit LR but how do I find out what my average snowfall should be? am I close enough to NYC to go by that, but then again more times than not I see more snow than NYC, aside from Jonas.

NWS will use the closest climate station, which is most likely LGA for you. Its close between LGA and Teterboro for closest reporting station (depends on exact Yonkers location both around 10 miles away in diff directions) but far as I know Teterboro doesn't keep long term official snow statistics.
LGA is an inch or so more than Central Park.

[algae888]

not only do we have the day 7 threat but also hearing the eps days 11-15 look fantastic

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

BTW sorry this is noit LR but how do I find out what my average snowfall should be? am I close enough to NYC to go by that, but then again more times than not I see more snow than NYC, aside from Jonas.

JMAN.

Your about 10 miles north of Central Park geographically so add about 2-3 inches to these averages.

The 30 year average in CPK is 25.8
The 146 year average is 28.8
The running 30 yr average is 28.6
The average since Jan 2001 is 34.0 inches.

[skinsfan1177]

Their is no exact track yet with the storm plenty days aeay

[algae888]

The 12z para gfs is a benchmark track similar to the euro operational we basically get crushed
http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php

[Grselig]

GFS and CMC inland traqcks, Euro on its own.  Doesn't seem to look gr8, am I wrong? I remember some people saying the Euro has been aweful this season.?

WHAT??? WE HAVE 100 -120 HOURS UNTIL WE NAIL THIS DOWN. THE HANDLING OF THE PV LOCATION IS BIG HERE AS IS THE PHASE. THE CMC AND GFS SAY THE WAR - WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE - PRESSES ON US - EURO SAYS NO GET OUT OF HERE WITH THAT WAR AND IT DOES SO WITH A SYSTEM ON MONDAY.
EURO AND PARA ARE 1&2 FOR US THIS WINTER IN VERIFICATION SCORES FROM WHAT I HAVE READ AND YES IT BLEW SOME STORMS. AND HAD A BAD STRETCH BUT HOPEFULLY IT IS COMING BACK.
WE SHALL SEE.

ahh mugs your persistent optimism helps us along : )

Mugs for President. Our country needs the optimism. He would increase funding for a blizzard machine.

[algae888]

looks like two low pressure systems both on the euro and para gfs the first one is weak and looks a little warm but it pushes the baroclinic zone a little East but it can't get to far east because of the western Atlantic Ridge. So cold air comes in as the next system comes up the coast which is deeper and loaded with moisture

[skinsfan1177]

The 12z para gfs is a benchmark track similar to the euro operational we basically get crushed
http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php

BM is what we coasties need to far inland and it's wet

[amugs]

Peeps,

GFS moved towards the euro solution IMO - not weenie thinking here - bring the PV a bit more south which bring the cold air in. Be patient but nothing but good JUJU here for this next one, we can and will do this!!

Verification scores of models - what have you done for me lately?? Better correlate to next week!





If we can get a 50/50 low from the Monday system then I say wtfo!! The ceiling/potential on this can be high.

[algae888]

18z gefs are east of 12z

18z

12z

[algae888]

jman im surprised you haven't posted euro ensembles yet. i'm hearing they are lovely

[jmanley32]

I'm out I'll look when I'm home.

[amugs]

GFS/GEFS Trending towards euro solutions - ring a bell - DING DING!!

[Guest]

The LP looks weaker and the HP to the north also looks weaker from yesterday's run no?

[amugs]

Syo on what run?
Gfs has a really amped Miller A and Euro has good SLP as well the HP Position is what is diffrence as is the Monday LP that sets things up as well. Another wait and see.

Just for the record, I am leaning to N & W of the city on this one. Driscoll bridge North type of storm sorry SNJ could be wrong here but we'll see.

[amugs]

I am going to quote Larry Cosgrove from his face book page he put out at 7pm ish


"The talk about a potential major winter storm affecting parts of the Deep South, Appalachia, and the Eastern Seaboard next week will likely be growing. The disturbance will likely be composed of two entities: energy ejecting out of the sub-Aleutian vortex, and an impulse moving along in the subtropical jet stream (tied very much to the Phase 6-7-8 banding of the Madden-Julian Oscillation). With the aforementioned mAk gyre pumping up a steep +PNA/-AO styled ridge complex, the ...two disturbances will likely meld in the base of a 500MB trough over the Deep South next Tuesday.
It is way too early to speculate about possible snow amounts, but the unity of the numerical models with regard to this feature is pretty amazing. Therefore the most likely outcome will be a Miller "A" Gulf Coaster/Hatteras/Nor'easter event between February 23 and 27. Yes, I insist on a longer time span because the European and American ensemble platforms suggest a closed off, vertically stacked cyclone that progresses slowly from the NC Outer Banks to the MA Islands, then on toward the Bay of Fundy.
Because the disturbance will be flanked both right and left sides by strong ridging, a huge temperature split is bound to arise by next Wednesday and Thursday. I can easily see some warming developing in coastal New England and Mid-Atlantic locations, enough to allow for precipitation to start as rain. in many places along the Interstate 95 corridor. But I suspect that most of this event will be snow, and potentially a lot of it. With a neutral/negative tilt aloft and inverted trough development over the Virginias, this could be a big snow/ice thunderstorm maker above Interstate 64 near and east of Huntington WV on up into the major cities of the Northeast."-

[Dunnzoo]

Hearing similar thoughts from other sources. Sounds promising, alas, I will be tracking from Florida!

[skinsfan1177]

I'm thinking this can go either way it's looking more and more like a coastal. But some think it could take a BM track or a tad east of it or west of it. track everyone see the white gold

[Sponsored content]