Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Mugs:

It seems Isotherm has been calling for these stratospheric warming events several times this winter so my question is, has one actually occurred or several yet, and if so when, and did it do us any good when it did?

These are things I never had to concern myself with when I watched Tex Antoine and Mr. Weatherbee on channel 7.

CP,

Saw your post and just wanted to address this. I have been discussing the stratosphere / conditions / precursors developing in the troposphere which would set the stage for PV perturbation and potential warming activity. However, from back in early/mid December, I issued a call for a possible SSW event near the end of January. That SSW commenced in the beginning of February, and we experienced an impressive SSW event, which was directly related in inducing the record cold temperatures over the Northeastern US. So to be clear, I have only called for a SSW event once this winter -- late Jan/beginning of Feb -- and that was the time frame I have been highlighting since early winter. You may hear about me discussing the stratosphere frequently, because strat height changes / circulation is important regardless of whether a SSW is occurring.

Going forward, my thoughts remain the same as those posted by mugs above. I would caution that it is not a guarantee that we destroy the vortex, but the progged evolution, leading to a possible wind reversal at 60N, would be more than sufficient to produce EPO/AO domain blocking in March.

Hopefully that clears up some confusion. The expected science behind the strat attacks with wave-1 climaxing in late Jan / consequently SSW, have verified. The record cold nature of this year's vortex prevented the SSW from being a "major" classification, but it appears we may achieve one in 10-12 days.

Tom:

Thanks a million for the explanation. I still don't fully comprehend it and probably never will more for being just lazy when it comes to this stuff than anything else, but that's why I rely on people like you and Frank and mugs and Scott.

If I at least get the basics it's a positive if I'm looking for a cold and snowier March which I most certainly am, than I hope it happens.

Thanks again Tom.

And get well Frank I see your also posting an explanation from your hospital bed. Just get better we need you to analyze next week because the models are not helping.

[RJB8525]

Yes Frank we need you to save your strength so you can work on your mo-mo

[amugs]

Tom AKA Isotherm - thanks so much for posting here and clearing thing sup here - i have with your permission as I have asked yuo - posted your reports on the stratosphere here from the other forum.
Honored to have yuo here posting and sharing yuo r tremendously insightful and technical reports.

Frank take your time and get better - rest is best - speedy and healthy recovery kid.

[docstox12]

Mugs:

It seems Isotherm has been calling for these stratospheric warming events several times this winter so my question is, has one actually occurred or several yet, and if so when, and did it do us any good when it did?

These are things I never had to concern myself with when I watched Tex Antoine and Mr. Weatherbee on channel 7.

And let us not forget Gloria Okon and Pat Hernon on Channels 5 and the best NY TV Station of the 50's and 60's, WPIX!!!!!! Probably before you youngsters time,LOL!

[docstox12]

Mugs:

It seems Isotherm has been calling for these stratospheric warming events several times this winter so my question is, has one actually occurred or several yet, and if so when, and did it do us any good when it did?

These are things I never I had to concern myself with when I watched Tex Antoine and Mr. Weatherbee on channel 7.

WOW !  That brings back some memories.

CP, and then the famous line by Ross Grimsley "Lie back, relax and enjoy the weather with Storm Field"

wow, Tex died young, age 59.

Was it from liver failure ? As I recall he was a bit of a drinker and that's what cost him his job. He made a comment about a woman being raped that was really out of line.
 I think he had a few drinks before he had gone on the air. If I wrong please correct me.

Must have been, SNOW. Tex always had a load on when he went on the air.Absolutely hilarious stuff!!!

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Mugs:

It seems Isotherm has been calling for these stratospheric warming events several times this winter so my question is, has one actually occurred or several yet, and if so when, and did it do us any good when it did?

These are things I never had to concern myself with when I watched Tex Antoine and Mr. Weatherbee on channel 7.

And let us not forget Gloria Okon and Pat Hernon on Channels 5 and the best NY TV Station of the 50's and 60's, WPIX!!!!!! Probably before you youngsters time,LOL!

Geez Doc I don't even remember them.

I do remember Superman on WPIX, like you say the greatest station of the 60's. "Look up in the sky, it's a bird, it's a plane, no it' SUPERMAN".

Sorry I know this should be banter, at least it started with a serious question and it was actually pretty cool having Isotherm himself on here to answer. I hope to someday partially comprehend the things Isotherm, Frank, Mugs and Sroc discuss. There's only so much us baby boomers are capable of.

[algae888]

Today's 12z gfs looked to take a step towards the euro. It held back the northern stream energy and almost phases it. The track looks good east of Long Island however temps look marginal snow to rain back to snow looks like 3 to 6 inches across the area this run was not far from a big hit

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Today's 12z gfs looked to take a step towards the euro. It held back the northern stream energy and almost phases it. The track looks good east of Long Island however temps look marginal snow to rain back to snow looks like 3 to 6 inches across the area this run was not far from a big hit

3 totally different solutions in the last 3 runs of the GFS. Another example of why the operationals have to be taken with a grain of salt each run.

[sroc4]

Today's 12z gfs looked to take a step towards the euro. It held back the northern stream energy and almost phases it. The track looks good east of Long Island however temps look marginal snow to rain back to snow looks like 3 to 6 inches across the area this run was not far from a big hit

3 totally different solutions in the last 3 runs of the GFS. Another example of why the operationals have to be taken with a grain of salt each run.

Yup...wind shield wipers...

[docstox12]

Mugs:

It seems Isotherm has been calling for these stratospheric warming events several times this winter so my question is, has one actually occurred or several yet, and if so when, and did it do us any good when it did?

These are things I never had to concern myself with when I watched Tex Antoine and Mr. Weatherbee on channel 7.

And let us not forget Gloria Okon and Pat Hernon on Channels 5 and the best NY TV Station of the 50's and 60's, WPIX!!!!!! Probably before you youngsters time,LOL!

Geez Doc I don't even remember them.

I do remember Superman on WPIX, like you say the greatest station of the 60's. "Look up in the sky, it's a bird, it's a plane, no it' SUPERMAN".

Sorry I know this should be banter, at least it started with a serious question and it was actually pretty cool having Isotherm himself on here to answer. I hope to someday partially comprehend the things Isotherm, Frank, Mugs and Sroc discuss. There's only so much us baby boomers are capable of.

Yep, my 65 year old brain is fried, it's taken me all my time on this and the Channel 7 Board to get even a rudimentary understanding of all this.Brain vapor lock.I need Tex to draw the weather with his felt tip pen 'LO" and "HI" pressures on the blackboard,LOL.

And again, moderators, sorry for this on the long range board, couldn't help myself discussing old NY City weather memorobilia.

This is for you,CP, buddy boy!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q2l4bz1FT8U

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

FWIW which is pretty much nothing this early, the 12z GFS snow map. As usual several days out I'm right in the jackpot, another reason not to take this map seriously.

Doc, the Superman clip above is classic, what a great memory. How the heck did we ever watch black and white TV's, plus no high def, "the horror".

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016021812/gfs_asnow_neus_31.png

[docstox12]

We might be in for a front end snow event according to NWS at this juncture, CP.Snow tuesday night to rain weds.That GFS map will be filed under "HV Fairy Tales Can Come True They Can Happen To You..." file.

Yes, imagine how we survived.Channels 2,4,5,7,9,11,13 and maybe the UHF station 47 I think you used your "fine tuner" to pick up.You got off your arse to change the channels,LOL.All in wonderful black and white!!!
I always remember the white dot appearing in the middle of the "picture tube" when you turned it off after the National Anthem indicated "our broadcast day has ended!"

[iloveweather]

Feel Better Frank!!!!

[chief7]

Get well Frank!

[algae888]

The 12z CMC runs right up I 95 however it does give major snowfall to our area it looks weird as heights are between 546 and 552 and it's still snowing rather heavily. If you looked at where the Low Center passes you would think it's rain. Frank hope for a speedy recovery

[algae888]

Ukie is way amped up has the low well west of us. Now I officially have a headache time to take a break from the models until the euro comes out.

[algae888]

Gefs is a benchmark track

[hyde345]

Next up, Euro to add another solution to the mix.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Below the GEM Snow map. Alex would finally cash in on his move to Binghamton. Would like this for thearesian too.

HV and NNJ still get over a foot. Again just for fun meaningless right now.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016021812/gem_asnow_neus_29.png

[Guest]

Thanks CP. I'd take 12 in a heartbeat. It would double the season's snowfall.

[oldtimer]

Frankie "Paisan". Please get well soon. You got yourself rundown and you could't shake it. I blame El Niño with all these extremes Anyway feel better. I speak for all the members........

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

FWIW which is nothing.

TWC app last night had my area for 11-18 inches of snow Tuesday night and Wednesday. It now shows 2-4 inches for just Wednesday.

The funny think is you could probably pick a model run and either one would be right, even all rain.

[jake732]

The dumb thing is that i will be getting all rain i hate when this happens

[algae888]

And the euro is strung out and way east of last night's run looks like the GFS 2 - 6 inches across the area post some apps when I get home we also have to watch the sunday night Monday morning system as the Euro spits out .5 le I'm not sure how much of that is snow definitely better for the interior

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

And the euro is strung out and way east of last night's run looks like the GFS 2 - 6 inches across the area post some apps when I get home we also have to watch the sunday night Monday morning system as the Euro spits out .5 le I'm not sure how much of that is snow definitely better for the interior

Al I appreciate everything you do here, but I'm getting dizzy now.

It's time for me to take a break. I've watched the models since yesterday and I've seen a half a dozen wildy different solutions in that time frame. Obviously the models have no clue at this stage, none of them. It's not like they are disagreeing with each other, they each have contradicted themselves from run to run.

I'm going to take 24 hours off and see if I can stick to that vow for once.

[jmanley32]

Frank feel better! Which St. Barnabas? In the city or NJ? Its never fun being that sick I know from experience. See you back soon! Stinks we don't have better news for next week.

[SNOW MAN]

And the euro is strung out and way east of last night's run looks like the GFS 2 - 6 inches across the area post some apps when I get home we also have to watch the sunday night Monday morning system as the Euro spits out .5 le I'm not sure how much of that is snow definitely better for the interior

Al I appreciate everything you do here, but I'm getting dizzy now.

It's time for me to take a break. I've watched the models since yesterday and I've seen a half a dozen wildy different solutions in that time frame. Obviously the models have no clue at this stage, none of them. It's not like they are disagreeing with each other, they each have contradicted themselves from run to run.

I'm going to take 24 hours off and see if I can stick to that vow for once.

24 hours off. Come on your not going to take 24 seconds off. It's like the ketchup commercial. Annnnntttttiiiicccccciiiiiiippppppaaaaatttttttiiiiiiiiooooooonnnnnn !

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