Hurricane Hermine Discussion

amugs wrote:Alignment of the models
GFS,EURO, GEM, GEFS and EURO ENS - UKIE coming around to the retrograde.

IF I live along the coast I would start to get things in order and I think after Frank our fearless leader digests the model runs and data from today he will concur.
They ain't going to sound the alarms until Friday night or Saturday morning but we are always ahead of the curve on this board - VIVA NJ STRONG!!!!

just got home..had some last minute fun stuff before school starts..on Tues...we stopped at costco on way home to get water and stuff...will start our prep tom..husband off from work....I really hope this thing goes out to sea!!

Frank_Wx wrote:Those along the coast should prepare for the possibility of Hurricane force winds. The likelihood of those types of winds remain slim, since track is unknown, but surge and tropical storm winds look likely.

just the beaches frank or a bit inland too? Al was say could n fine in nyc area. I guess I'll let u b and read ur blog tonight but please mention what u expect for my area li etc not just jersey shore. Thpugh they most important.

One thing I do know is I will be taking lots of pics probably be at work

jmanley32 wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:When do we sound the alarms here for people to prepare

I want to know too, cuz theres no way I wanna get stuck in the grocery store as my wife insists I go shopping if go be bad out.

go on the way home they are talking about bad weather on tv and its holiday weekend..so stores going to be busy....IMHO..as an experienced shopper....

syosnow94 wrote:PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE SHOW ME A RUN LIKE THIS IN 4 MONTHS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

skinsfan1177 wrote:How can anyone along coast prepare with no consistency

Whats scary is most people think "oh it will go out to sea"

Watching ABC forgot who was on the scene reporting said most people are doing the wait and see approach others are already taking necessary steps

amugs wrote:If this verifies JMAN would ___________ fill in the blank!!

run around in it in my shorts like sroc said for blizzard lol

syosnow94 wrote:HPC forecast from NWS shows Hermine to be just off of Delmarva day 3 and then it takes 4 DAYS to make it to the Benchmark.  Something is way off.  They only forecast 1.5-2.5" of rain for the Jersey coast and LI with a 4 day storm. I don't care what strength it is, you cannot have those two things together.  4 days of drizzle would add up to those totals for petes sake.

I've missed your posts!!! HAPPY SEPT..SYS

I just asked my local pizza guy I go to all time and he didn't even know there was a hurricane hermine. Too much complacency and no talk on news yet I guess. Or not enough to concern anyone.

skinsfan1177 wrote:How can anyone along coast prepare with no consistency

Better to be prepared, Lee just had you in the 6" or rain area. Can I buy you a drink tomorrow? Good luck!

jmanley32 wrote:I just asked my local pizza guy I go to all time and he didn't even know there was a hurricane hermine. Too much complacency and no talk on news yet I guess. Or not enough to concern anyone.

Wow. Im home alone this weekend and couldn't think what to have for dinner. Pizza it is.

We have a tropical storm watch as of 4:50 today

Hearing gfs ots any truth

skinsfan1177 wrote:Hearing gfs ots any truth

It's actually stronger. A little south and east from 12z. Wind and surge would still be bad for the NJ shore on this run.

The 18z gfs and rgem are all well east of 12z runs. The beaches will probably still take a pounding and the winds will be gusty but most of the area misses The brunt of this storm

anyway we are able to salvage a part of Monday, maybe some sun breaking through the clouds? also, any chance this storm totally misses and the weekend turns out nice just like it was supposed to originally?

Frank_Wx wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:Hearing gfs ots any truth

It's actually stronger. A little south and east from 12z. Wind and surge would still be bad for the NJ shore on this run.

Models been so close, its like land is a barricade. Do you see this correcting west? Or as stated do we just not know because of how strong the High will be? The news has a scroll now saying NYC in threat so I expect the complacency to now turn to panic, always does get the bread and milk!

This storm is looking very similar to the last few years with the south and east trend Southern New Jersey looks to take the brunt of the storm along with the Delmarva

dolphins222 wrote:anyway we are able to salvage a part of Monday, maybe some sun breaking through the clouds?  also, any chance this storm totally misses and the weekend turns out nice just like it was supposed to originally?

With so much hype on this storm ( the 12z suite  on all the models  always had us on the Northern periphery of this system) the official National Weather Service forecast is for a 50% chance of rain from Saturday through Labor Day for nyc metro. It probably will not be nice out cloudy and windy with some rain but don't let your guard down has tropical systems can surprise.
Nws disco
All attention of focus turns to tropical cyclone Hermine which is
forecast to take a track along the coastal plain from the
Carolinas Saturday to east of the Delmarva Sunday. Refer to
the latest NHC advisories for forecast track and intensity
information. This is a fluid situation due to the complex
interaction with a mid latitude upper trough exiting off the
Northeast and Mid Atlantic coasts Friday into Friday night. A
cutoff low forming at the base of the upper trough on Saturday
interacts with the tropical cyclone with some resemblance of
a hybrid system. While models maintain a warm core system,
indicating it remains tropical, there is clearly frontal
interaction to the NW of the low track with strong frontogenetic
forcing resulting in heavy rains. At this time, the forecast area
looks to reside on the northern periphery of the rain shield which
moves into the area Saturday night into Sunday. The potential is
there for a heavy rainfall event, but the 12Z global models keep
the area on the northern fringe. This will have to be closely
watched.

So I guess it depends if it gets tugged back somewhat to the coast is the Big question. We know their is blocking to the North and to the east

Frank_Wx wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:I just asked my local pizza guy I go to all time and he didn't even know there was a hurricane hermine. Too much complacency and no talk on news yet I guess. Or not enough to concern anyone.

Wow. Im home alone this weekend and couldn't think what to have for dinner. Pizza it is.

lol, I got a grilled chicken hero as you know me with cheese and milk products....BTW, not many people read the off topic thread on what happened to me two weeks ago, I think only two responded, Im a little hurt : ( JK I rarely look there either.

Some are down playing this because it won't be a big hit for the jersey shore but that last model is still a big problem for the jersey shore so let's stop downplaying things

skinsfan1177 wrote:So I guess it depends if it gets tugged back somewhat to the coast is the Big question. We know their is blocking to the North and to the east

I would think that blocking to the east would push it further east, but Hermine is also speeding up so like dunzoo said Hermine could push further north if she gets there sooner. GFS has this more sunday into Monday, but Frank said Sat night and so did some mets. So I dunno speed and track are key obviously.

track17 wrote:Some are down playing this because it won't be a big hit for the jersey shore but that last model is still a big problem for the jersey shore so let's stop downplaying things

hey track, not down playing but we don't hype either, its a complex setup and we have to be conservative until we know for sure, meanwhile if you have any preparing to do I'd say wait to see overnight models and do anything tomorrow if needed, but also keep in mind like dunzoo said it could come down to a nowcast which would be bad but there may be no other choice. Franks blog tonight should be very good.

jmanley32 wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:So I guess it depends if it gets tugged back somewhat to the coast is the Big question. We know their is blocking to the North and to the east

I would think that blocking to the east would push it further east, but Hermine is also speeding up so like dunzoo said Hermine could push further north if she gets there sooner.  GFS has this more sunday into Monday, but Frank said Sat night and so did some mets.  So I dunno speed and track are key obviously.

I would think the opposite high pressure to the east would keep it from going ots. North H from going to far North that's why it stalls no where to go I think the trough would have to tug it back to coast

algae888 wrote:

dolphins222 wrote:anyway we are able to salvage a part of Monday, maybe some sun breaking through the clouds?  also, any chance this storm totally misses and the weekend turns out nice just like it was supposed to originally?

With so much hype on this storm ( the 12z suite  on all the models  always had us on the Northern periphery of this system) the official National Weather Service forecast is for a 50% chance of rain from Saturday through Labor Day for nyc metro. It probably will not be nice out cloudy and windy with some rain but don't let your guard down has tropical systems can surprise.
Nws disco
All attention of focus turns to tropical cyclone Hermine which is
forecast to take a track along the coastal plain from the
Carolinas Saturday to east of the Delmarva Sunday. Refer to
the latest NHC advisories for forecast track and intensity
information. This is a fluid situation due to the complex
interaction with a mid latitude upper trough exiting off the
Northeast and Mid Atlantic coasts Friday into Friday night. A
cutoff low forming at the base of the upper trough on Saturday
interacts with the tropical cyclone with some resemblance of
a hybrid system. While models maintain a warm core system,
indicating it remains tropical, there is clearly frontal
interaction to the NW of the low track with strong frontogenetic
forcing resulting in heavy rains. At this time, the forecast area
looks to reside on the northern periphery of the rain shield which
moves into the area Saturday night into Sunday. The potential is
there for a heavy rainfall event, but the 12Z global models keep
the area on the northern fringe. This will have to be closely
watched.

Al I find it absolutely hilarious that the 18z GFS has .1 inche rain here and to the north a band of .5+, even the coast misses out on the 20 inches over the water, any change in track to the NW will really mean a lot.

skinsfan1177 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:So I guess it depends if it gets tugged back somewhat to the coast is the Big question. We know their is blocking to the North and to the east

I would think that blocking to the east would push it further east, but Hermine is also speeding up so like dunzoo said Hermine could push further north if she gets there sooner.  GFS has this more sunday into Monday, but Frank said Sat night and so did some mets.  So I dunno speed and track are key obviously.

I would think the opposite high pressure to the east would keep it from going ots. North H from going to far North that's why it stalls no where to go I think the trough would have to tug it back to coast

EDIT!! Meant west not east!