Hurricane Hermine Discussion

Tropical storm watch extended into NYC, LI, Southern Westchester, Coastal CT

sroc4 wrote:

aiannone wrote:
New Track has it remerging into a hurricane of the DE coast.

Ohhh there is an H in there now.  

H??

Our area is moving into the likely category

Post-Tropical "Hurricane".....Banging my head against a wall right now
I would have most likely kept it PT until 8am Sunday, transitioning back to tropical 8 am Monday, but that just my opinion. You can clearly see the transition on models with the tightening of wind field past that date.

Alex, do you know when there might be a better handle on impacts to northern NJ? I'm trying to determine if I should move my Sunday evening plans to tonight. Thanks!

weatherwatchermom wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

aiannone wrote:
New Track has it remerging into a hurricane of the DE coast.

Ohhh there is an H in there now.  

H??

Hurricane

Live Feed of NYC Prep press conference
http://abc7ny.com/live/23376/

sabamfa wrote:Alex, do you know when there might be a better handle on impacts to northern NJ? I'm trying to determine if I should move my Sunday evening plans to tonight. Thanks!

Move them. Sunday evening will be peak impact time if current guidance holds. Better be safe than sorry.

de Blasio having a press conference live right now

NWS stated how the surge could be the worst in years

Snow88 wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

aiannone wrote:
New Track has it remerging into a hurricane of the DE coast.

Ohhh there is an H in there now.  

H??

Hurricane

This...."Hurricane" Post trop hurricane as of Monday am 8am. This is how I feel about it

sroc4 wrote:

Snow88 wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

aiannone wrote:
New Track has it remerging into a hurricane of the DE coast.

Ohhh there is an H in there now.  

H??

Hurricane

This...."Hurricane"  Post trop hurricane as of Monday am 8am.  This is how I feel about it

  that is what I thought you meant..hoping not... oh boy...this is crazy!! gotta run my son to school for orientation...can't wait to see how many pages I will be missing...

If it reemerges again as a H, just thinking of that gives me a shiver down my spine

aiannone wrote:

sabamfa wrote:Alex, do you know when there might be a better handle on impacts to northern NJ? I'm trying to determine if I should move my Sunday evening plans to tonight. Thanks!

Move them. Sunday evening will be peak impact time if current guidance holds. Better be safe than sorry.

Thanks, Alex!

12z GFS starting to come in west of 0z

So far...00z then 12z..not much shift west just off the NC coast....maybe 5-10miles

The NAM goes from out to sea to a hit at 12z. Pathetic model.And it sits Hermine there for days. Ouch.

Frank_Wx wrote:The NAM goes from out to sea to a hit at 12z. Pathetic model.And it sits Hermine there for days. Ouch.

I think it might be picking up on some of the diabatic effects, since I feel that it will remain mostly tropical. I also feel that the models have been struggling with the interaction at H5. I was apprehensive from the beginning when they started showing Hermine be so easily pulled backward toward that weak piece in the South-central eastern States. Hermine clearly has the local vorticity maximum, which should mean that the smaller piece should be drawn towards Hermine and not the other way around. We will see what the rest of the 12z suite does, but that's one reason why my track was the way it was yesterday. Gotta go, but I'll be following!!

It looks like a pretty organized system on the GFS (likely due to the bathtub SST's and some upper level dynamics). Once the retograde back west occurs, that is when we get into rain, wind, and surge along the coast. Seas are going to be rough all weekend.

One thing to note: since this looks like a slower system that means we have another full day and a half of model runs.

Great...

Man, that retrograde is pretty bad. I am concerned for the NJ coastline. NYC too at the lower burbs.

UGH

It blows up to 967mb

50+mph winds get into NYC

Fantastic

Quietace wrote:Post-Tropical "Hurricane".....Banging my head against a wall right now
I would have most likely kept it PT until 8am Sunday, transitioning back to tropical 8 am Monday, but that just my opinion.  You can clearly see the transition on models with the tightening of wind field past that date.

I totally agree that's why we're not seeing an expanse of the winds and rain north and west of the system as syo was wondering yesterday

One can argue that the further east this goes the WORSE it will be for our area, because a retrograde looks all but likely and if this thing stays over warm water longer it will deepen to sub 970mb. How far west it comes will be very scary trying to figure out. The 12z GFS verbatim would wreck havoc as is along the coast.

algae888 wrote:

Quietace wrote:Post-Tropical "Hurricane".....Banging my head against a wall right now
I would have most likely kept it PT until 8am Sunday, transitioning back to tropical 8 am Monday, but that just my opinion.  You can clearly see the transition on models with the tightening of wind field past that date.

I totally agree that's why we're not seeing an expanse of the winds and rain north and west of the system as syo was wondering yesterday

Yes, exactly.