Hurricane Hermine Discussion

One can argue that the further east this goes the WORSE it will be for our area, because a retrograde looks all but likely and if this thing stays over warm water longer it will deepen to sub 970mb. How far west it comes will be very scary trying to figure out. The 12z GFS verbatim would wreck havoc as is along the coast.

algae888 wrote:

Quietace wrote:Post-Tropical "Hurricane".....Banging my head against a wall right now
I would have most likely kept it PT until 8am Sunday, transitioning back to tropical 8 am Monday, but that just my opinion.  You can clearly see the transition on models with the tightening of wind field past that date.

I totally agree that's why we're not seeing an expanse of the winds and rain north and west of the system as syo was wondering yesterday

Yes, exactly.

If the storm remains post-tropical then we would have tropical force winds for several days which would pretty devastating for parts of the area.

Have a quick second here to post this:




Again, did this for work so PLEASE do not share. My initial thoughts from yesterday's map and brief text about it still look good in my opinion.

Storm surge watch issed for the Atlantic and LI Sound shores. This the first yr they are being used. Was issued in FL too.
They feel the public doesny fully get the concept of storm surge and it doesn't always match to the category of a hurricane.

Keep in mind Saturday now looks dry and overcast and the first half of Sunday could be dry too. So we have lots more model time to work with. Suddenly tonight and tomorrow's model runs have become important when we though that would be today.

Geez!

rb924119 wrote:Have a quick second here to post this:




Again, did this for work so PLEASE do not share. My initial thoughts from yesterday's map and brief text about it still look good in my opinion.

Excellent, excellent graphic.

Look at how much the wind field expands!!

rb924119 wrote:Have a quick second here to post this:




Again, did this for work so PLEASE do not share. My initial thoughts from yesterday's map and brief text about it still look good in my opinion.

I am going to assume that the x is the location of the center of the system. If that the case, given guidance intensity + intensification of the system moving into the Monday time frame; I would figure hurricane force gales would expand further out from the eye than that pole ward. Otherwise I like it.

Frank are u going to log today ?

Blog **

Quietace wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Have a quick second here to post this:

Again, did this for work so PLEASE do not share. My initial thoughts from yesterday's map and brief text about it still look good in my opinion.

I am going to assume that the x is the location of the center of the system. If that the case, given guidance intensity + intensification of the system moving into the Monday time frame; I would figure hurricane force gales would expand further out from the eye than that pole ward. Otherwise I like it.

Thanks, Frank!!

Ace, yes, that is a correct assumption. The wind field absolutely could expand further than that. That's one of the variables at play, unfortunately, and will depend entirely on how much of a transition this system will be able to make from tropical to non, and in what part of it's secondary life-cycle (strengthening, maturity, or declining). At this time, with the setup that I am seeing, I would not be surprised to see it remain mostly tropical for a longer period of time, which directly impacts the wind field. If it remains tropical (or mostly) and strengthens, which is what I'm hedging my bets toward at this time, it will help to limit the expanse of the field away from the center. When it finally does start transitioning (and what I'm assuming to be at max intensity then beginning to weaken), that field will rapidly expand. However, it looks like it will make the majority of that transition AFTER it reaches its peak intensity, at least in my opinion, which means that as it transitions and that wind field expands (in coordination with the precipitation field), they will both also weaken as they spread out. Fracture. I could be wrong, but that's just my thought at this time. Obviously it's an evolving situation haha

Yes, will try and put one out around 7pm.

Storm surge could be 3-6 feet based off the 06z GFS.

Frank_Wx wrote:Yes, will try and put one out around 7pm.

Where'd you find that?? lol

http://lakewood732weather.blogspot.com/2016/09/hurricane-hermine-update.html

Ukie way west of 0z

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=000&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=072

Beaches closed on Sunday and Monday

NWS says NYC beaches will have worst rip tides in over 20 years

Frank_Wx wrote:Yes, will try and put one out around 7pm.

Storm surge could be 3-6 feet based off the 06z GFS.

Hi everyone! I'm usually pretty quiet during the summer but we've clearly got a situation on our hands.

I also saw this on Twitter and was about to post it; VERY concerning storm surge forecast right now...

rb924119 wrote:Have a quick second here to post this:




Again, did this for work so PLEASE do not share. My initial thoughts from yesterday's map and brief text about it still look good in my opinion.

Are these sustained? And I imagine with track, these could move further west or east yes? I have been bustin butt at work, and just saw the TS alert on my phone, kinda weird the wording of it as it does not say my city explicitly and says very low winds but maybe that's a preliminary statement as its just a watch. Do you mind if I show your image from here to my family? I won't share it anywhere online.

Ukie more west

Colors are in km/h, so divide by 1.6 (100 km/h=60 mph)

Also, from a local NYC Met...

Wow, this is getting more and more interesting, two more days of models ugg lol, and wow a H on the map, I agree it should be tropical, and they could change that at some pt.

Jeez Louise...long time lurker, infrequent poster here. I live in jersey city, and I'm really concerned about this storm surge. Our infrastructure down by the water, the economic heart of the city, still hasn't fully recovered from Sandy.

Godspeed all, I'm tracking with nervous eyes as well.

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Have a quick second here to post this:

Again, did this for work so PLEASE do not share. My initial thoughts from yesterday's map and brief text about it still look good in my opinion.

Are these sustained? And I imagine with track, these could move further west or east yes? I have been bustin butt at work, and just saw the TS alert on my phone, kinda weird the wording of it as it does not say my city explicitly and says very low winds but maybe that's a preliminary statement as its just a watch.  Do you mind if I show your image from here to my family?  I won't share it anywhere online.

Yeah. Although for the fringe regions, it would be more gusty than sustained because of mixing. But generally, yes, sustained. And no, go right ahead!! That's just a preliminary thought, though, Jman, not set in stone. I just don't want it shared online, that's all lol

Surface winds on the Ukie

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Have a quick second here to post this:

Again, did this for work so PLEASE do not share. My initial thoughts from yesterday's map and brief text about it still look good in my opinion.

Are these sustained? And I imagine with track, these could move further west or east yes? I have been bustin butt at work, and just saw the TS alert on my phone, kinda weird the wording of it as it does not say my city explicitly and says very low winds but maybe that's a preliminary statement as its just a watch.  Do you mind if I show your image from here to my family?  I won't share it anywhere online.

Yeah. Although for the fringe regions, it would be more gusty than sustained because of mixing. But generally, yes, sustained. And no, go right ahead!! That's just a preliminary thought, though, Jman, not set in stone. I just don't want it shared online, that's all lol

Well you have me well within the green (spo potentially gusts to 60mph maybe in that area?), and almost yellow, and updated TS watch says to prepare for 39-57kt winds in my area, even inland southern Westchester.  Is it possible hurricane watches go up if this intensifies to that amount? Or will it stay far enough off shore> I mean up into NYC, not NJ which appears to have the best chance of that.  Guess I should stock up on some stuff maybe tomorrow, or do you think people will start panicking to morrow and stores will b nuts? 4 more model suites....uggg, better not push out anymore.  Oh BTW TS watch says about 800 miles south of area so got a bit of a trek lol.