HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

oldtimer wrote:Frank  That big blob of convection to to E is still there  Never saw that ever before

That is Martha. Matthew's side piece.

It's an area of convergence due to the downsloping winds off South America and the easterly trades. Promoting deep convection.

weatherwatchermom wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:hey guys quick question...how do we see the Dominican Republic  faring with Mathew? (Particularly Puerto Plata area) I guess the more west it heads the better for them?

Since Matthew is a fairly compact system, the DR should fair pretty well. They will see some rain from the outer bands, but winds should be on the lighter end. Jamaica, Haiti, and Cuba then eventually Bahamas are the islands set to feel this wrath.

thanks was not sure about the size.. (did you ever make it to the gym yest?)

Of course!

Yes indeed as iot had it going into the GOM oh wait then stalled over the bahamas for 3-4 days and then went towards Bermuda - I can't remember which one.

Great work on here guys - very busy yesterday with things but kept looking on mobile. The windshield wiper somewhat effect and waffling with models.

Give JMAN a blend of the GFS track about 50 more west than 6Z run and Euro intensity and he'll call it a decade. Just my opinion here based upon latest runs - trough digs deep and captures my boy. USA USA USA!!
Lots of time.
From Rayno
GFS digs deep  like AMerican know how                          Euro like a european meh - let me have smoke while this digs!!

Frank_Wx wrote:

oldtimer wrote:Frank  That big blob of convection to to E is still there  Never saw that ever before

That is Martha. Matthew's side piece.

It's an area of convergence due to the downsloping winds off South America and the easterly trades. Promoting deep convection.

weatherwatchermom wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:hey guys quick question...how do we see the Dominican Republic  faring with Mathew? (Particularly Puerto Plata area) I guess the more west it heads the better for them?

Since Matthew is a fairly compact system, the DR should fair pretty well. They will see some rain from the outer bands, but winds should be on the lighter end. Jamaica, Haiti, and Cuba then eventually Bahamas are the islands set to feel this wrath.

thanks was not sure about the size.. (did you ever make it to the gym yest?)

Of course!

"Martha" would make a nice case study. Can probably find other examples in past systems. Probably has effected the system in some type of way during its life cycle. Could probably run a re-analysis eliminating "martha" and see the response.

Matthew is approaching 75 west. I heard that storms that approach 75 west have a higher chance of hitting the East coast.

Snow88 wrote:Matthew is approaching 75 west. I heard that storms that approach 75 west have a higher chance of hitting the East coast.

Really? I wonder who you heard that from.

Snow88 wrote:Matthew is approaching 75 west. I heard that storms that approach 75 west have a higher chance of hitting the East coast.

Anthony my man - Frank said it on both boards - yuo are hugging the models like it was your last day.
Get to 76 and you'll be in your glory!!

Going to be an interesting few days ahead, gotta stock up on some cold brew and chips for late night model watching............

GFS ENS - Back West

OH NEELLLIEEEE IF THIS BAD BOY COMES TO FRUITION WATCH OUT BELOW!!!!

rb924119 wrote:Welcome aboard, Bob!! Every member adds something, even if questions. Chances are if you have a question, somebody else probably has it too, so they generate discussion. It's a win-win!

I figured Matthew's "Drive For 75" was as good of a time as any.

amugs wrote:OH NEELLLIEEEE IF THIS BAD BOY COMES TO FRUITION WATCH OUT BELOW!!!!

that's showing a trend for a blocking ridge to keep it from ots yes?

GEFS - getting tighter up by us

amugs wrote:GFS ENS - Back West

Ohhh baby up the coast starting to converge 12z coming soon.

Frank_Wx wrote:

Snow88 wrote:Matthew is approaching 75 west. I heard that storms that approach 75 west have a higher chance of hitting the East coast.

Really? I wonder who you heard that from.

A very wise man

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:OH NEELLLIEEEE IF THIS BAD BOY COMES TO FRUITION WATCH OUT BELOW!!!!

that's showing a trend for a blocking ridge to keep it from ots yes?

Yes and the heights rise along the coast with the trough digging into the heartland.

Martha should have been the chosen one.

Looks like a double cane.

Notice the trend though; the GFS is slowing the system down a little as evidenced by the blues to the south of the contours depicting Matthew. However, they aren't statistically significant. And yeah Frank, that convection still has me wondering if the models aren't sure of how to handle the circulation. We'll see haha have to just wait and see

11am update

3mph boy this thing just doesn't want to move sheesh I'm guessing that means he us gping to b taking a new turn requiring that rotation again since we are no longer on a turn.

NHC mentioned Martha in their last update. They have no clue either, hahaa

Also there has been a persistent, but
inexplicable, cluster of deep convection located a couple of degrees
to the east of the hurricane and the effect of this feature on
Matthew's intensity evolution is unknown.

Looking at visible satellite it looks like Matthew is stationary again and undergoing eyewall replacement.

It looks like Matthew is going to loop again. We'll probably see a turn to the north late today. Once he turns north, it will be key to see whether he goes NW or due north.

Another day of not much movement Will it throw everything else off??

oldtimer wrote:Another day of not much movement Will it throw everything else off??

That is the million dollar question.

From 11 am update:

At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was
located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 74.6 West. Matthew is
drifting toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest is expected later today, followed by a turn toward
the north tonight

Frank_Wx wrote:11am update

Off of Florida Friday morning, 06z GFS has it here on Saturday, hmmmmm.