Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

by **amugs** Mon Oct 03, 2016 5:11 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
aiannone wrote:This is just great. Had a 4 day weekend this weekend and now we get a possible hurricane next weekend on a Sunday when I have classes Monday. Maybe it will be enough to close Binghamton and I can come home haha. I drove all the way home for Hermine and you know how that ended lol.

Yes we do. Stay in Binghamton. If you come home, I'll ban you.

That a boy Frank - I will get in my car and drive another 300 miles and kick this little turds but so he cant make it home so we get a storm you, I and Jman want !!!!

by **amugs** Mon Oct 03, 2016 5:13 pm

Wish this were winter no??

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 34 GEFSNEPrecip12144

by **aiannone** Mon Oct 03, 2016 5:52 pm

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 34 At195410

Good analog here

by **Sanchize06** Mon Oct 03, 2016 5:52 pm

Even more west at hr 72...Florida landfall looks pretty likely this run

by **jmanley32** Mon Oct 03, 2016 5:53 pm

Wow 18z really gets fl. I'm sticking with the all the way up the coast. If I'm wrong I'm wrong. But euro is headed to showing same thing.

by **frank 638** Mon Oct 03, 2016 6:02 pm

if the gfs is right mathew would become more of a nor,easter how true is this ???

by **jmanley32** Mon Oct 03, 2016 6:02 pm

aiannone wrote:
Good analog here

That is. I'll take a cat 2.

by **jmanley32** Mon Oct 03, 2016 6:03 pm

frank 638 wrote:if the gfs is right mathew would become more of a nor,easter how true is this ???

who said that maybe as it heads inland but prolly a hurricane on approach if he does make it up here.

by **jmanley32** Mon Oct 03, 2016 6:04 pm

frank 638 wrote:if the gfs is right mathew would become more of a nor,easter how true is this ???

who said that maybe as it heads inland but prolly a hurricane on approach if he does make it up here.

by **Sanchize06** Mon Oct 03, 2016 6:04 pm

Remains just offshore off Florida at hr 102, coming north

by **jmanley32** Mon Oct 03, 2016 6:05 pm

Rides entire fl coast crazy. In 930 too yikes.

by **Sanchize06** Mon Oct 03, 2016 6:08 pm

Off the SC coast at hr 114, looks like the trough is going to get to this a little quicker this run

by **sroc4** Mon Oct 03, 2016 6:09 pm

Trough trying to go neg by hr 120 actually still neutral but close

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Oct 03, 2016 6:09 pm

Sanchize06 wrote:Off the SC coast at hr 114, looks like the trough is going to get to this a little quicker this run

Well, Matthew is a little slower this run whereas on 12z it was ahead of the trough. This may be perfect timing

by **amugs** Mon Oct 03, 2016 6:13 pm

PAC block and ridge pumping !!!

by **Sanchize06** Mon Oct 03, 2016 6:13 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
Sanchize06 wrote:Off the SC coast at hr 114, looks like the trough is going to get to this a little quicker this run

Well, Matthew is a little slower this run whereas on 12z it was ahead of the trough. This may be perfect timing

Maybe it's just me but the trough looks a little flat at hr 126, this may go OTS lol

by **jmanley32** Mon Oct 03, 2016 6:14 pm

This has ridden the entire coast from fl to sc...wow

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Oct 03, 2016 6:14 pm

May miss the phase this run

by **sroc4** Mon Oct 03, 2016 6:15 pm

Yup. Ridge def flattens out this run as it approaches the east

by **jmanley32** Mon Oct 03, 2016 6:16 pm

It's really close though looks like at surface.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Oct 03, 2016 6:18 pm

sroc4 wrote:Yup. Ridge def flattens out this run as it approaches the east

Yup, very fine line.

by **jmanley32** Mon Oct 03, 2016 6:19 pm

We see a ton of rain. I still think these meet up in the end.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Oct 03, 2016 6:21 pm

jmanley32 wrote:We see a ton of rain. I still think these meet up in the end.

Pre frontal rain. Boring.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Oct 03, 2016 6:22 pm

Tell you what though, I'm not surprised at all FL and NC issues a SOM.

by **jmanley32** Mon Oct 03, 2016 6:24 pm

Yes boring but we are still not out of the woods. But for gfs to swung back east again is annoying.

by **jmanley32** Mon Oct 03, 2016 6:25 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Tell you what though, I'm not surprised at all FL and NC issues a SOM.

already in carolinas? They must expect this to speed up soon.

by track17 Mon Oct 03, 2016 6:25 pm

So Frank is this run saying we are fine you two are confusing

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