HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Frank_Wx wrote:

Dis2cruise wrote:Approx. what day would this be hitting LI ?

IF he hits LI, a very big IF, it is likely to be late Saturday into Sunday. Or early Sunday into Monday. Timing is uncertain. Among many other things.

Thanks so much heading to fire island this weekend.....maybe not ugh

Wow, 18z Hurricane models are in.



12z for comparison:

when do the euro ensambles come out..5pm...trying to learn the times

The second image us the gefs frank. But the 12z Hurricane Models were well east.

[quote="Frank_Wx"]Wow, 18z Hurricane models are in.



That's about as good of a consensus as you can get lol

EPS

Sattelite is amazing can't post but looks like may be getting stronger buzz saw look.

Frank_Wx wrote:EPS

what's the spread after that?

Out to sea. Match OP

Damn well still a battle.

my sister is having a bridal shower for this sun in the bronx at 2 pm just wondering how bad it will it be for the afternoon i know the models are always changing and thankyou everyone for all the hard work u guys do

Frank, Interesting note here from the Brookhaven office regarding the Euro. The ECMWF erodes the sub-tropical ridgemore so than the GFS/CMC/UKMET and is also flatter with the troughcoming in from the west. The net effect is the ECMWF takes Matthewout to sea this weekend, while most other solutions bring the stormtowards New England this weekend. It is noted that WPC does not, norhas it for the past couple of days, like the ECMWF handling of thetrough coming in from the west. In deference to the expertise of WPCin the long range, have adopted a non-ECMWF approach to Matthew.

mmanisca wrote:Frank, Interesting note here from the Brookhaven office regarding the Euro. The ECMWF erodes the sub-tropical ridgemore so than the GFS/CMC/UKMET and is also flatter with the troughcoming in from the west. The net effect is the ECMWF takes Matthewout to sea this weekend, while most other solutions bring the stormtowards New England this weekend. It is noted that WPC does not, norhas it for the past couple of days, like the ECMWF handling of thetrough coming in from the west. In deference to the expertise of WPCin the long range, have adopted a non-ECMWF approach to Matthew.

so basically nws wpc is not buying the euro?

Not too much of a poster (long time lurker though), but for once hopefully I can contribute a pretty cool website I came across.

https://www.windyty.com/?rain,15.602,-74.202,7

You can see a bunch of data about the storm in real time. Something cool to play around with for a bit.

Side note, it says I joined on 10/01 but I signed up back in January.

Is that why their rain map has consistently shown heavy rains for our area? Hmmm yup they showing 6 inches rain in 5 to 7 day. Well they are the pros. I'm still holding gfs since it has more models with it and euro is on its own.

Seems like it. Here's the discussion in detail:
The forecast gets decidedly more complex from late Saturday through
Monday as Tropical Cyclone Matthew becomes a potential factor in our
weather. Consensus is growing towards Matthew heading "under" Cape
Hatteras as it moves towards the southeastern coast late this week.
This is due to blocking from the sub-tropical ridge to its west and
north.

There are then differences in what happens next for the weekend into
early next week due to differences in the evolution of the sub-
tropical ridge and the handling of a trough of low pressure that
will move in from the west. The ECMWF erodes the sub-tropical ridge
more so than the GFS/CMC/UKMET and is also flatter with the trough
coming in from the west. The net effect is the ECMWF takes Matthew
out to sea this weekend, while most other solutions bring the storm
towards New England this weekend. It is noted that WPC does not, nor
has it for the past couple of days, like the ECMWF handling of the
trough coming in from the west. In deference to the expertise of WPC
in the long range, have adopted a non-ECMWF approach to Matthew.

For now, have kept Saturday dry, as there is a general trend towards
a slower progress of Matthew northward as it approaches, so figure
could see some slowing in the future as well. Do expect rapid
acceleration as the storm comes out of the NC Capes as it interacts
with the trough approaching from the west.  Do have chance pops for
rain Saturday night and Sunday, tapering to slight chance pops
Sunday night as Matthew probably is exiting to the NE into the
Canadian Maritimes.

There is the potential for a Predecessor Rain Band (PRE) with timing
in the late Saturday/sunday time frame most likely at this time.
This appears to have a decent chance of impacting the area, even if
Matthew stays to the south/east. If it occurs, then heavy rainfall
can be expected. The other likely impact is dangerous rip currents
and probable beach erosion at Atlantic Beaches.

For now appears Monday should just be a windy day as Matthew exits,
however uncertainty in timing/track could change this.

There are then differences in what happens next for the weekend into
early next week due to differences in the evolution of the sub-
tropical ridge and the handling of a trough of low pressure that
will move in from the west. The ECMWF erodes the sub-tropical ridge
more so than the GFS/CMC/UKMET and is also flatter with the trough
coming in from the west. The net effect is the ECMWF takes Matthew
out to sea this weekend, while most other solutions bring the storm
towards New England this weekend. It is noted that WPC does not, nor
has it for the past couple of days, like the ECMWF handling of the
trough coming in from the west. In deference to the expertise of WPC
in the long range, have adopted a non-ECMWF approach to Matthew

Mmanica beat me. Yes, WPC is discounting EURO

Not surprisingly, 5 PM cone shifts west

Idk if I agree with that at all; throwing the EURO out. The pattern in the eastern Pacific does not look like it should support a blocked pattern, in my honest opinion. Too many SHALLOW shortwaves in short succession don't usually coalesce unless there is significant blocking downstream forcing them to slow down and become oriented in such a way that their proximities to one another are minimized, and in this case even with the GFS I don't see that situation where it should be to promote it. Much further downstream; yes. But the blocking for those shortwaves should be over western North America with a decently sized ridge, which even in the GFS isn't there. Even with the ridging over Alaska, the trough that the GFS phases in with the one over the waters of the eastern Pacific is already negatively tilted, which means that I would think that the only way that energy could go is further (north)east. I don't know, maybe it's just me, but I am really wondering if it's just not the GFS trying to do too much troughing in the East. I guess that's why I am where I am, and they (WPC) are where they are.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/videos/accuweather-experts/matthew-to-approach-us-coastline-late-week/2430839568001

bernie's take

he likes the euro

At 48 hours and beyond, the GFS has trended sharply westward, and
now is in agreement with the UKMET and ECMWF in showing the western
extent of the Atlantic subtropical ridge nosing north of Matthew
across the Carolinas in 3-4 days. This results in Matthew taking a
more northwesterly track across the Bahamas, and closer to the
Florida peninsula during this time. The UKMET is farthest west,
with a track over the east coast of Florida and into South Carolina
in 4-5 days. The GFS, ECMWF, and the GFDL model are a little
farther east and remain close to but offshore of Florida. The GFDL
and GFS are close to southeastern North Carolina by day 5, while the
ECMWF is slower. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted
significantly westward at days 3-5, and now lies near the middle of
the guidance envelope and close to the ECMWF/GFS blend. While there
remains significant uncertainty in the track of Matthew in the long
range, the threat to Florida and the southeastern U.S. coast has
increased.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm
surge, extreme winds, heavy rains, flash floods, and/or mudslides in
portions of the watch and warning areas in Haiti, Cuba, and the
Bahamas. Please consult statements from the meteorological services
and other government officials in those countries.

2. Direct hurricane impacts are possible in Florida later this
week. Tropical storm and/or hurricane watches could be issued
sometime tonight or early tomorrow for portions of the Florida
peninsula and the Florida Keys.

3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect portions of
Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this
weekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too
soon to specify what, if any, direct impacts Matthew might have on
the remainder of the U.S. east coast. At a minimum, very dangerous
beach and boating conditions are likely along much of the U.S. east
coast later this week and weekend.

Out a UD all day and just noticed teh major shift to Hazel/Floyd tracks as per 18Z - big shift west - noticed the strength of teh WAR increasing as well. I said this before and will again he will ravage the east coast - said his last week and he will come to poppa. These beast of storms defy physics at times. The euro is bad in teh 6-10 look at how much it has corrected and the gfs track is basically still intact - again a blend of euro intensity and gfs track in the works. Feeling I have had since he was reborn!!

BUH BYE Bahamas on this latest track.

Pro Met wrote his an hour ago

I'm not sure people realize how much the Euro improved aloft and how much it's trending towards the other guidance. Clearly, the recurving typhoon is having huge effects on the trough, and this further helps because the stronger WAR places the storm at a more favorable longitude to begin with. Here is a gif comparing the 00z Euro with the 12z Euro and how much deeper the 12z Euro is with the trough.

Frank_Wx wrote:

aiannone wrote:This is just great. Had a 4 day weekend this weekend and now we get a possible hurricane next weekend on a Sunday when I have classes Monday. Maybe it will be enough to close Binghamton and I can come home haha. I drove all the way home for Hermine and you know how that ended lol.

Yes we do. Stay in Binghamton. If you come home, I'll ban you.

That a boy Frank - I will get in my car and drive another 300 miles and kick this little turds but so he cant make it home so we get a storm you, I and Jman want !!!!

Wish this were winter no??