Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

by **jmanley32** Mon Oct 03, 2016 6:25 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Tell you what though, I'm not surprised at all FL and NC issues a SOM.

already in carolinas? They must expect this to speed up soon.

by track17 Mon Oct 03, 2016 6:25 pm

So Frank is this run saying we are fine you two are confusing

by **jmanley32** Mon Oct 03, 2016 6:27 pm

Listen to frank.

by **aiannone** Mon Oct 03, 2016 6:28 pm

Anyone know of good webcams in western Haiti?

by **jmanley32** Mon Oct 03, 2016 6:34 pm

Well let's see what ensembles show and 00z. Go b some long days coming up here.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Oct 03, 2016 6:35 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Tell you what though, I'm not surprised at all FL and NC issues a SOM.
already in carolinas? They must expect this to speed up soon.

Actually, just because a governor issues a SOM doesn't mean the storm is coming. They're just opening up the resources sooner in the event it does come. But confidence should be growing for at least a category 4-5 scrape if not landfall in NC. Wowzers.

track17 wrote:So Frank is this run saying we are fine you two are confusing

Initially, the ridge out west looked pretty good which would have given us a similar run to 12z. But the stronger WAR actually kept Matthew further south / slower, and the ridge out west began to flatten out causing the trough downstream to turn progressive. There's lot of small details that have to be paid attention to. GFS showed how timing means everything. We're still another day and half away from knowing the final solution.

aiannone wrote:Anyone know of good webcams in western Haiti?

Dude, those people may get 3 FEET of rain. Imagine? Even I wouldn't want that. Ouch.

by **jmanley32** Mon Oct 03, 2016 6:40 pm

Wow u think it could b thst strong up there? So if it made it up here cat 2 maybe 3? A day and a half hopefully.

by **skinsfan1177** Mon Oct 03, 2016 6:43 pm

I don't know what to think for our area

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Oct 03, 2016 6:58 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:I don't know what to think for our area

Welcome to the club

by **rb924119** Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:03 pm

^LMFAOOOO

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:16 pm

Looks like Matthew ate Martha. Oh well.

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 35 Rbtop-animated

by **algae888** Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:17 pm

rb924119 wrote:^LMFAOOOO

yes! 67 pages on matthew and he is still 6 days away. reading thru the pages is comical. I was refraining on posting until he is under a 100 hours away from our lat but I will say this: the gfs was right on the east coast track as we have good consensus that he will not enter the gulf and the euro was mostly right on timing. if anyone thinks they can forecast if he will directly affect us att good luck. nhc margin of error is a couple of hundred miles at day 3. hopefully we will not discuss winter storms as we have discussed matthew. scotts first post was tuesday sept 27th at 8:30 am. 6+ days ago and we are still 144 hours away.

by **Grselig** Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:18 pm

Fn cannibal

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:21 pm

algae888 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:^LMFAOOOO
yes! 67 pages on matthew and he is still 6 days away. reading thru the pages is comical. I was refraining on posting until he is under a 100 hours away from our lat but I will say this: the gfs was right on the east coast track as we have good consensus that he will not enter the gulf and the euro was mostly right on timing. if anyone thinks they can forecast if he will directly affect us att good luck. nhc margin of error is a couple of hundred miles at day 3. hopefully we will not discuss winter storms as we have discussed matthew. scotts first post was tuesday sept 27th at 8:30 am. 6+ days ago and we are still 144 hours away.

I blame Scott for all of this.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:24 pm

18z GEFS

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 35 Gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_fh54-180.gif.64316d53a5876116cdfca6ac78b49984

by **sroc4** Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:26 pm

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:28 pm

sroc4 wrote:

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:29 pm

My brother leaves for Miami on Thursday. Just told him to expect sunshine with temps in the 80s. Calm wind.

by **amugs** Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:31 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:My brother leaves for Miami on Thursday. Just told him to expect sunshine with temps in the 80s. Calm wind.

You love him that much eh!

by **rb924119** Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:32 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
sroc4 wrote:

You two make such a great Matthew and Martha lol!

by **amugs** Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:34 pm

Slight weakness in trough makes the world of difference for us as per 12z (left) and 18z (right) GFS runs from Rayno

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 35 Ct4SOZeVUAAyvIG

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 35 Ct4SOZeVUAAyvIG

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:36 pm

amugs wrote:Slight weakness in trough makes the world of difference for us as per 12z (left) and 18z (right) GFS runs from Rayno

From now on future model runs we talk about the Pacific only. Forget Matthew. He won't track here without a favorable PAC.

by track17 Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:39 pm

Is there still a good chance of the pac being favorable or is that out the window?

by track17 Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:39 pm

Is there still a good chance of the pac being favorable or is that out the window?

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:42 pm

track17 wrote:Is there still a good chance of the pac being favorable or is that out the window?

Euro says bad

GFS says ok

We'll see

by **algae888** Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:44 pm

sroc4 wrote:

all your fault scott. well not really you but you know who? Very Happy

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:58 pm

934mb. Poor Haiti.

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 35 Recon_AF306-1814A-MATTHEW_zoom

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