Re: Hurricane Matthew Southeast Coast Discussion Thread

by **jmanley32** Thu Oct 06, 2016 5:38 pm

I should mentioned possible eyewall replacement as the other reason thpught bout tgat later while driving.

by **sroc4** Thu Oct 06, 2016 5:59 pm

Notice the heavy banding wrapping around the western and now southern flank of the eye wall. He will be stronger in another 12hrs.

Hurricane Matthew Southeast Coast Discussion Thread - Page 5 Codnexlab.NEXRAD.AMX.N0Q.20161006.2157.048ani

Hurricane Matthew Southeast Coast Discussion Thread - Page 5 Codnexlab.NEXRAD.AMX.N0Q.20161006.2157.048ani

by **Radz** Thu Oct 06, 2016 6:04 pm

sroc4 wrote:Notice the heavy banding wrapping around the western and now southern flank of the eye wall. He will be stronger in another 12hrs.

Looks like a jog west last few frames as well...

by mwilli5783 Thu Oct 06, 2016 6:13 pm

once matthew passes fla,atl etc then makes the loop back to fla or the bahamas?

by **Artechmetals** Thu Oct 06, 2016 6:31 pm

Frank my parents live in Port St. Lucie how dangerous will this be for them ? They did not evacuate

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Oct 06, 2016 6:54 pm

Artechmetals wrote:Frank my parents live in Port St. Lucie how dangerous will this be for them ? They did not evacuate

They are in an area where Matthew could potentially make landfall. Gut feeling is it'll be north of there, but I think it's foolish they did not evacuate. It will still be very bad for them.

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Oct 06, 2016 7:14 pm

by mrsmaz Thu Oct 06, 2016 7:26 pm

Frank what are your thoughts for the Orlando area near Disney?

by **skinsfan1177** Thu Oct 06, 2016 7:28 pm

mrsmaz wrote:Frank what are your thoughts for the Orlando area near Disney?

I believe Orlando is in the hurricane warning area.

by mrsmaz Thu Oct 06, 2016 7:33 pm

Yes they are. There's even a curfew from 10pm tonight till 7am Saturday morning. My daughter said ther are starting to get some heavier rain

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Oct 06, 2016 7:38 pm

mrsmaz wrote:Frank what are your thoughts for the Orlando area near Disney?

They're screwed too.

Category 1 or 2 force winds. 3 to 5 inches of rain. Brutal.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Thu Oct 06, 2016 7:49 pm

GFDL says no loop, not sure if this storm is done with surprises just yet.....

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfdl-p®ion=14L&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2016100618&fh=3&xpos=0&ypos=56

by **amugs** Thu Oct 06, 2016 7:55 pm

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Oct 06, 2016 8:12 pm

by **WeatherBob** Thu Oct 06, 2016 8:33 pm

Isn't that the Grand Bahama Island that the eye just brushed? I would say they must have experienced 130 MPH sustained at least. Gusts to 150 to 160!!!

by Biggin23 Thu Oct 06, 2016 8:38 pm

I have a rental house in Saint Mary's, Ga, which is just north of The FL border. According to charts, my house will flood with a 10 foot storm surge. What are your thoughts on storm surge in that area? Is there a website to monitor to follow current storm surge as it happens? I have seen 7-11 feet are expected so it is going to be close....

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Oct 06, 2016 8:47 pm

Biggin23 wrote:I have a rental house in Saint Mary's, Ga, which is just north of The FL border. According to charts, my house will flood with a 10 foot storm surge. What are your thoughts on storm surge in that area? Is there a website to monitor to follow current storm surge as it happens? I have seen 7-11 feet are expected so it is going to be close....

Follow this link snd zoom in on your house. If you see red spots that means it will flood.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/213032.shtml?inundation

by Biggin23 Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:03 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
Biggin23 wrote:I have a rental house in Saint Mary's, Ga, which is just north of The FL border. According to charts, my house will flood with a 10 foot storm surge. What are your thoughts on storm surge in that area? Is there a website to monitor to follow current storm surge as it happens? I have seen 7-11 feet are expected so it is going to be close....

Follow this link snd zoom in on your house. If you see red spots that means it will flood.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/213032.shtml?inundation

Thanks Frank! Good link. I am currently in the blue area, but will keep checking back over the next 36 hours or so. I've been through several hurricanes being from Pensacola, but this one is a beast!

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:07 pm

What would you he doing if you were in FL right now? Drinking sounds about right to me.

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:08 pm

He's gunna get very close. Not sure he makes landfall on FL though

Hurricane Matthew Southeast Coast Discussion Thread - Page 5 Forecast

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:10 pm

Outer eyewall approaching west Palm beach. This thing has 2 eye walls. Inner and outer. Not good because the outer eye wall contains hurricane force winds so they will expand over a large area

Hurricane Matthew Southeast Coast Discussion Thread - Page 5 57f6f5682627c_RAD_KMLB_N0R_ANI(1).gif.46a5dd03bd9606200b6183be719d1cd6

Hurricane Matthew Southeast Coast Discussion Thread - Page 5 57f6f5682627c_RAD_KMLB_N0R_ANI(1).gif.46a5dd03bd9606200b6183be719d1cd6

by Biggin23 Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:12 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:What would you he doing if you were in FL right now? Drinking sounds about right to me.

Yes sir. Same things you guys do up here in the snow. The key is to do so away from the water. I lost my house in Ivan because of flooding, but was safe about 30 miles inland at my in laws house. Storm surge is brutal and unforgivable. That storm changed how I view hurricanes before. If I am even close to water I'm leaving without asking a question in the future!

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:19 pm

Not sure how many of you remember this. Video I made of Hurricane Sandy.

https://youtu.be/CKrBRWjaJ0E

by Guest Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:20 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:

That radar looks healthy and impressive!! The eyewall demolished the western half of Grand Bahama for 3 hours with cat 4 winds. Has to be horrendous damage.

Latest Official NHC track is about 30 miles offshore at it's closest approach. Hopefully theyre spot on.

by **Math23x7** Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:29 pm

I just spoke with my relatives in Orlando. They said that this afternoon they tried to get something to eat. The mall: closed. The supermarket: closed. The only place open was a Chinese restaurant where they had to wait 30 minutes just to get a seat, but it was the only option they knew of. There were no flights they could get to that would have gotten them out in time so they have to ride it out in the hotel. They have told me that they have rearranged flight plans to fly out of Orlando on Saturday morning to go to Charolette, NC before flying from there to NYC. I told them two major issues with that. 1) Charolette may be in the rain bands of Matthew before it loops around. 2) Potential destruction in Orlando could wreak further havoc on the flight schedule. But they told me that its the best they could do. This is a couple in their 40s and three kids ages 15, 13, and 8.

When they first told me last August that they were going to Florida in early October, I immediately thought, "What if a hurricane strikes?" But I couldn't say anything because they would have yelled at me calling me a pessimist. (Actually, whenever I hear about vacation plans for anybody, I often bring up potential weather threats that could crash it and they are fed up with it so they have told me to keep my mouth shut)

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:40 pm

by **devsman** Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:55 pm

Math23x7 wrote:I just spoke with my relatives in Orlando. They said that this afternoon they tried to get something to eat. The mall: closed. The supermarket: closed. The only place open was a Chinese restaurant where they had to wait 30 minutes just to get a seat, but it was the only option they knew of. There were no flights they could get to that would have gotten them out in time so they have to ride it out in the hotel. They have told me that they have rearranged flight plans to fly out of Orlando on Saturday morning to go to Charolette, NC before flying from there to NYC. I told them two major issues with that. 1) Charolette may be in the rain bands of Matthew before it loops around. 2) Potential destruction in Orlando could wreak further havoc on the flight schedule. But they told me that its the best they could do. This is a couple in their 40s and three kids ages 15, 13, and 8.

When they first told me last August that they were going to Florida in early October, I immediately thought, "What if a hurricane strikes?" But I couldn't say anything because they would have yelled at me calling me a pessimist. (Actually, whenever I hear about vacation plans for anybody, I often bring up potential weather threats that could crash it and they are fed up with it so they have told me to keep my mouth shut)

?

Told my mother-in-law about this storm 2 weeks ago. She went to orlando on monday. She called my wife on tuesday and said...why didn;t he tell us about this storm...He always talks about the weather. Her memory is not so good.

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