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Hurricane Matthew Southeast Coast Discussion Thread

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Oct 05, 2016 9:23 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Frank, I didn't exactly know where to put this, so feel free to move it if you want it somewhere else. I posted this morning about how I might be concerned with Matthew if it's still dancing around off the Southeast coast early next week. Instead of doing a write-up, I tried a video. Let me know what you all think about it, and feel free to ask questions!!! Hopefully you enjoy it, it answers all of the questions, isn't too boring, and isn't too long!! haha

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0Byod2Sk27yNYWjhpQmhTSTFkNDA

First off, when you do these fantastic write ups, case studies, or videos do everyone a favor and start a thread so they don't get buried like this video did!

Second, this was a fantastic presentation. Serioisly, I think you exemplify the difference between forecasters who model hug vs those who look at pattern recognition. While guidance isn't showing a strong enough trough to lift Matthew Part 2 up the coast, as you showed, it cannot be discounted. The ridge bridge induced by a -EPO and -AO is impressive, but how we both mentioned, the PAC jet seems unfavorable at this time. Not sure if the developing LA Nina or super Typhoon have anything to do with that, but I think the PNA will stay neutral to negative. If it does go positive then we'll probably see a couple of models show Matthew come up the coast again. Just not feeling it right now.

Lastly, yes. I like the video format. And would prefer it if that's easier for you. I encourage a learning enviornemt here and I think people will benefit from your videos. Thanks again for your work. Start a thread!

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Oct 05, 2016 9:35 pm

Hurricane Matthew Southeast Coast Discussion Thread - Page 2 57f5a9d9195cb_SAT_ERG4_WVENH_ANI(1).gif.046ecd6b3a7333bbafa6181a24085c08

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Oct 05, 2016 9:35 pm

Expect Matthew to strengthen to a Cat 4 again, IMO

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Post by frank 638 Wed Oct 05, 2016 9:38 pm

rb that was excellent video you posted i like how you explained everything about this storm and no it was not boring good job on the video

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Post by SoulSingMG Wed Oct 05, 2016 9:40 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Frank, I didn't exactly know where to put this, so feel free to move it if you want it somewhere else. I posted this morning about how I might be concerned with Matthew if it's still dancing around off the Southeast coast early next week. Instead of doing a write-up, I tried a video. Let me know what you all think about it, and feel free to ask questions!!! Hopefully you enjoy it, it answers all of the questions, isn't too boring, and isn't too long!! haha

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0Byod2Sk27yNYWjhpQmhTSTFkNDA

You're officially my favorite new MET! Keep the videos comin'—great job.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Oct 05, 2016 9:46 pm

Better look of expected winds in FL. Wow.

Hurricane Matthew Southeast Coast Discussion Thread - Page 2 FB_IMG_1475718292350

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Oct 05, 2016 9:56 pm

Hurricane Matthew Southeast Coast Discussion Thread - Page 2 Rbtop-animated

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Post by rb924119 Wed Oct 05, 2016 9:59 pm

Thanks everybody!! Glad you enjoyed it and got some learning out of it!! I guess that means I'll have to do more as situations permit haha

A new thread for the video has been started, so any future questions or comments can be kept there with it.

Frank, I don't think a true +PNA ridge spike occurs either, I just highlighted it to demonstrate the ridge splitting. However, there may be a muted ridge that tries to build in beneath the slower jet in the southern part of that area. I'll also try to remember to start a new thread if/when I do things like this again haha

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:03 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Better look of expected winds in FL. Wow.

Hurricane Matthew Southeast Coast Discussion Thread - Page 2 FB_IMG_1475718292350

My wifes aunt daytona woah!! I so wanna go down to experience this, darn working lol.
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Post by speckles116 Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:12 pm

I am new to this but find it extremely fascinating and am trying to learn. Absolutely loved the video. I found it extremely educational and intriguing. Great job! Please keep making them so less experienced people like me can continue learning! I am curious to see what happens in the next few days.

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Post by CyphaPSU Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:16 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Frank, I didn't exactly know where to put this, so feel free to move it if you want it somewhere else. I posted this morning about how I might be concerned with Matthew if it's still dancing around off the Southeast coast early next week. Instead of doing a write-up, I tried a video. Let me know what you all think about it, and feel free to ask questions!!! Hopefully you enjoy it, it answers all of the questions, isn't too boring, and isn't too long!! haha

Thank you very much for the video!  Very informative, it's great format since it allows you to animate, talk, and mark up the images.  I'll be better equipped to explain the Matthew scenario to my high school meteo students in the morning.

Oh, and hello to everyone on the forum!

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:29 pm

matthew is def strengthening. i bet by 11pm winds are upped a bit.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:52 pm

Quick analysis. While I still hold my reservations about the ECMWRF holdinf back energy with several setups and busting on many storms, it clearly has shown that when it shows run to run consistency it is not to be ignored and may be on to something and clearly beat out the GFS here with its more correct portrayal of slower timing. Someone mentioned the GFS struggled with low latitude setups like Joaquin and Sandy and the EURO has beat the GFS both times and it looks like it has done much better this time as well and the CMC deserves some credit as well showing the most accurate track thru the Caribbean, although it has waffled more downstream. I believe the GFS has been much improved, although still clearly struggles with tropical systems in the longer range possibly due to its resolution or underlying mechanics of the model. In other words, the EURO did better with this setup clearly but I still do not call it "king of models" and take its depiction much heavier weighted over other models, especially with other synoptic setups, such as northern stream systems in winter where the GFS seems to excel and the EURO struggles. I stated for a while I was worried the EURO was onto something and it certainly appears that is the case at this point. And it does seem to do well with low latitude tropical systems... Rant over.
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Post by clownloach Wed Oct 05, 2016 11:55 pm

The Port Nassau Webcam is back up.
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Post by Radz Thu Oct 06, 2016 4:33 am

Current conditions:
https://www.wunderground.com/bs/andros-town-international
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Oct 06, 2016 5:39 am

Oh boy

Hurricane Matthew Southeast Coast Discussion Thread - Page 2 Rb_lalo-animated

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Post by sroc4 Thu Oct 06, 2016 6:46 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:Frank, I didn't exactly know where to put this, so feel free to move it if you want it somewhere else. I posted this morning about how I might be concerned with Matthew if it's still dancing around off the Southeast coast early next week. Instead of doing a write-up, I tried a video. Let me know what you all think about it, and feel free to ask questions!!! Hopefully you enjoy it, it answers all of the questions, isn't too boring, and isn't too long!! haha

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0Byod2Sk27yNYWjhpQmhTSTFkNDA

First off, when you do these fantastic write ups, case studies, or videos do everyone a favor and start a thread so they don't get buried like this video did!

Second, this was a fantastic presentation. Serioisly, I think you exemplify the difference between forecasters who model hug vs those who look at pattern recognition. While guidance isn't showing a strong enough trough to lift Matthew Part 2 up the coast, as you showed, it cannot be discounted. The ridge bridge induced by a -EPO and -AO is impressive, but how we both mentioned, the PAC jet seems unfavorable at this time. Not sure if the developing LA Nina or super Typhoon have anything to do with that, but I think the PNA will stay neutral to negative. If it does go positive then we'll probably see a couple of models show Matthew come up the coast again. Just not feeling it right now.

Lastly, yes. I like the video format. And would prefer it if that's easier for you. I encourage a learning enviornemt here and I think people will benefit from your videos. Thanks again for your work. Start a thread!


My sentiments are completely echoed by Franks. Great video Ray!!

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Oct 06, 2016 7:34 am

Incoming

Hurricane Matthew Southeast Coast Discussion Thread - Page 2 SAT_ATLSW_WVENH_ANI.gif.b4b9ed2e0b53a846afa2912f75819a69

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Post by weatherwatchermom Thu Oct 06, 2016 7:38 am

wow..been out of the loop dealing with a family emergency...this is just horrible..the devastation this will cause..and the loop we saw the other night could come to fruition?? this is crazy!

rb can't wait to watch your video later when I have time...
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Post by weatherwatchermom Thu Oct 06, 2016 7:40 am

Frank is that Nicole over by Bermuda??
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Oct 06, 2016 7:46 am

@weatherwatchermom wrote:Frank is that Nicole over by Bermuda??

Yup, it looks like Nicole will form contrary to what most guidance said. As you'll see in Ray's video, she's one reason for the hard turn right then a possible loop.

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 06, 2016 8:35 am

Nicole is almost a hurricane, 70mph.  Wow Matthew dropped nearly 25mb over night, winds surprisingly stayed the same 125mph.  Wow Andros Island winds sustained 106 gusts to 126.  I believe your right Frank this may be cat 4 by time gets to FL. My co-workers cruise is going to Nova Scotia instead tomorrow shes so pissed, but they did get offered to reschedule or full refund.
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Post by amugs Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:21 am

Nassau - Buh Bye - NE quadrant of the eyewall - storm surge is going to be insane!!

Hurricane Matthew Southeast Coast Discussion Thread - Page 2 Capture.PNG.1a7100864032ff5a0fd26ee493ae7b56

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Post by amugs Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:24 am

Peeps - he is one pissed off boy - 937 - I can see low 920's or lower when he hits FLA - it may become a marsh again!!
Hurricane Matthew Southeast Coast Discussion Thread - Page 2 CuFiJTDW8AE88b0

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Post by amugs Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:26 am

Tight Hcan wind field

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