Re: Hurricane Matthew Southeast Coast Discussion Thread

[Grselig]

Thanks. Not boring at all!

[amugs]

Rb,

EXCELLENT VIDEO - AWESOME JOB KID AND FANTASTIC EXPLANATION. I learned from this in a big way. thanks for taking the time to do this and share this. Hope it comes to fruition!!!

Mugs

[Frank_Wx]

Frank, I didn't exactly know where to put this, so feel free to move it if you want it somewhere else. I posted this morning about how I might be concerned with Matthew if it's still dancing around off the Southeast coast early next week. Instead of doing a write-up, I tried a video. Let me know what you all think about it, and feel free to ask questions!!! Hopefully you enjoy it, it answers all of the questions, isn't too boring, and isn't too long!! haha

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0Byod2Sk27yNYWjhpQmhTSTFkNDA

First off, when you do these fantastic write ups, case studies, or videos do everyone a favor and start a thread so they don't get buried like this video did!

Second, this was a fantastic presentation. Serioisly, I think you exemplify the difference between forecasters who model hug vs those who look at pattern recognition. While guidance isn't showing a strong enough trough to lift Matthew Part 2 up the coast, as you showed, it cannot be discounted. The ridge bridge induced by a -EPO and -AO is impressive, but how we both mentioned, the PAC jet seems unfavorable at this time. Not sure if the developing LA Nina or super Typhoon have anything to do with that, but I think the PNA will stay neutral to negative. If it does go positive then we'll probably see a couple of models show Matthew come up the coast again. Just not feeling it right now.

Lastly, yes. I like the video format. And would prefer it if that's easier for you. I encourage a learning enviornemt here and I think people will benefit from your videos. Thanks again for your work. Start a thread!

[Frank_Wx]

[Frank_Wx]

Expect Matthew to strengthen to a Cat 4 again, IMO

[frank 638]

rb that was excellent video you posted i like how you explained everything about this storm and no it was not boring good job on the video

[SoulSingMG]

Frank, I didn't exactly know where to put this, so feel free to move it if you want it somewhere else. I posted this morning about how I might be concerned with Matthew if it's still dancing around off the Southeast coast early next week. Instead of doing a write-up, I tried a video. Let me know what you all think about it, and feel free to ask questions!!! Hopefully you enjoy it, it answers all of the questions, isn't too boring, and isn't too long!! haha

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0Byod2Sk27yNYWjhpQmhTSTFkNDA

You're officially my favorite new MET! Keep the videos comin'—great job.

[Frank_Wx]

Better look of expected winds in FL. Wow.

[Frank_Wx]

[rb924119]

Thanks everybody!! Glad you enjoyed it and got some learning out of it!! I guess that means I'll have to do more as situations permit haha

A new thread for the video has been started, so any future questions or comments can be kept there with it.

Frank, I don't think a true +PNA ridge spike occurs either, I just highlighted it to demonstrate the ridge splitting. However, there may be a muted ridge that tries to build in beneath the slower jet in the southern part of that area. I'll also try to remember to start a new thread if/when I do things like this again haha

[jmanley32]

Better look of expected winds in FL. Wow.

My wifes aunt daytona woah!! I so wanna go down to experience this, darn working lol.

[speckles116]

I am new to this but find it extremely fascinating and am trying to learn. Absolutely loved the video. I found it extremely educational and intriguing. Great job! Please keep making them so less experienced people like me can continue learning! I am curious to see what happens in the next few days.

[CyphaPSU]

Frank, I didn't exactly know where to put this, so feel free to move it if you want it somewhere else. I posted this morning about how I might be concerned with Matthew if it's still dancing around off the Southeast coast early next week. Instead of doing a write-up, I tried a video. Let me know what you all think about it, and feel free to ask questions!!! Hopefully you enjoy it, it answers all of the questions, isn't too boring, and isn't too long!! haha

Thank you very much for the video!  Very informative, it's great format since it allows you to animate, talk, and mark up the images.  I'll be better equipped to explain the Matthew scenario to my high school meteo students in the morning.

Oh, and hello to everyone on the forum!

[jmanley32]

matthew is def strengthening. i bet by 11pm winds are upped a bit.

[NjWeatherGuy]

Quick analysis. While I still hold my reservations about the ECMWRF holdinf back energy with several setups and busting on many storms, it clearly has shown that when it shows run to run consistency it is not to be ignored and may be on to something and clearly beat out the GFS here with its more correct portrayal of slower timing. Someone mentioned the GFS struggled with low latitude setups like Joaquin and Sandy and the EURO has beat the GFS both times and it looks like it has done much better this time as well and the CMC deserves some credit as well showing the most accurate track thru the Caribbean, although it has waffled more downstream. I believe the GFS has been much improved, although still clearly struggles with tropical systems in the longer range possibly due to its resolution or underlying mechanics of the model. In other words, the EURO did better with this setup clearly but I still do not call it "king of models" and take its depiction much heavier weighted over other models, especially with other synoptic setups, such as northern stream systems in winter where the GFS seems to excel and the EURO struggles. I stated for a while I was worried the EURO was onto something and it certainly appears that is the case at this point. And it does seem to do well with low latitude tropical systems... Rant over.

[clownloach]

The Port Nassau Webcam is back up.

[Radz]

Current conditions:
https://www.wunderground.com/bs/andros-town-international

[Frank_Wx]

Oh boy

[sroc4]

Frank, I didn't exactly know where to put this, so feel free to move it if you want it somewhere else. I posted this morning about how I might be concerned with Matthew if it's still dancing around off the Southeast coast early next week. Instead of doing a write-up, I tried a video. Let me know what you all think about it, and feel free to ask questions!!! Hopefully you enjoy it, it answers all of the questions, isn't too boring, and isn't too long!! haha

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0Byod2Sk27yNYWjhpQmhTSTFkNDA

First off, when you do these fantastic write ups, case studies, or videos do everyone a favor and start a thread so they don't get buried like this video did!

Second, this was a fantastic presentation. Serioisly, I think you exemplify the difference between forecasters who model hug vs those who look at pattern recognition. While guidance isn't showing a strong enough trough to lift Matthew Part 2 up the coast, as you showed, it cannot be discounted. The ridge bridge induced by a -EPO and -AO is impressive, but how we both mentioned, the PAC jet seems unfavorable at this time. Not sure if the developing LA Nina or super Typhoon have anything to do with that, but I think the PNA will stay neutral to negative. If it does go positive then we'll probably see a couple of models show Matthew come up the coast again. Just not feeling it right now.

Lastly, yes. I like the video format. And would prefer it if that's easier for you. I encourage a learning enviornemt here and I think people will benefit from your videos. Thanks again for your work. Start a thread!

My sentiments are completely echoed by Franks. Great video Ray!!

[Frank_Wx]

Incoming

[weatherwatchermom]

wow..been out of the loop dealing with a family emergency...this is just horrible..the devastation this will cause..and the loop we saw the other night could come to fruition?? this is crazy!

rb can't wait to watch your video later when I have time...

[weatherwatchermom]

Frank is that Nicole over by Bermuda??

[Frank_Wx]

Frank is that Nicole over by Bermuda??

Yup, it looks like Nicole will form contrary to what most guidance said. As you'll see in Ray's video, she's one reason for the hard turn right then a possible loop.

[jmanley32]

Nicole is almost a hurricane, 70mph.  Wow Matthew dropped nearly 25mb over night, winds surprisingly stayed the same 125mph.  Wow Andros Island winds sustained 106 gusts to 126.  I believe your right Frank this may be cat 4 by time gets to FL. My co-workers cruise is going to Nova Scotia instead tomorrow shes so pissed, but they did get offered to reschedule or full refund.

[amugs]

Nassau - Buh Bye - NE quadrant of the eyewall - storm surge is going to be insane!!

[amugs]

Peeps - he is one pissed off boy - 937 - I can see low 920's or lower when he hits FLA - it may become a marsh again!!

[amugs]

Tight Hcan wind field

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