January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Because the ridge is better we're seeing northern stream try to dig quicker. I think this run will show a graze with huge improvements aloft.

Staggering changes. We are very close.

We are back in on this storm.

Chat tonight?

did euro come in?? whats it showing?

Much better improvements on the 12z EURO. As frank has been stating, better ridge axis, stronger/consilodated southern max, sharper trough, and better heights along the coast. One more shift and it's nearly warning criteria. No coincidence with better sampling we are seeing subtle shifts.

Click link to make sure you are registered for the chat tonight

https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t731-new-chat-must-register

24 hour 500mb height anomaly changes. Unbelievable.

Frank_Wx wrote:24 hour 500mb height anomaly changes. Unbelievable.

is it a good change or bad change

weatherwatchermom wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:24 hour 500mb height anomaly changes. Unbelievable.

is it a good change or bad change

Good. The red signifies better ridge amplification in the west. The blue in the southeast signifies a sharper trough and better heights up the coast.

Frank_Wx wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:24 hour 500mb height anomaly changes. Unbelievable.

is it a good change or bad change

Good. The red signifies better ridge amplification in the west. The blue in the southeast signifies a sharper trough and better heights up the coast.

Actually this image is better representing what I just described.

Good example of what a sharpening ULL trough does downstream.

0z EURO from last night - 300mb jet streak

shield



12z EURO today 300mb jet streak. Improved UL jet streak argues for more of convective growth in the precipitation

Armando Salvadore wrote:Much better improvements on the 12z EURO. As frank has been stating, better ridge axis, stronger/consilodated southern max, sharper trough, and better heights along the coast. One more shift and it's nearly warning criteria. No coincidence with better sampling we are seeing subtle shifts.

My question is did the models ingest the full sampling of the northern vort and make the full adjustment NW, or is it more of a trend west commencing?

Wait until that northern vort gets better sampling

nutleyblizzard wrote:

Armando Salvadore wrote:Much better improvements on the 12z EURO. As frank has been stating, better ridge axis, stronger/consilodated southern max, sharper trough, and better heights along the coast. One more shift and it's nearly warning criteria. No coincidence with better sampling we are seeing subtle shifts.

My question is did the models ingest the full sampling of the northern vort and make the full adjustment NW, or is it more of a trend west commencing?

They are adjusting based off better sampling of the southern s/w, IMO. It looks like a stronger southern s/w resulted in a sharper trough which drew heights to rise along the EC. They will not have good handling of the northern s/w until tonight 00z, but better yet tomorrow 12z.

Frank_Wx wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:24 hour 500mb height anomaly changes. Unbelievable.

is it a good change or bad change

Good. The red signifies better ridge amplification in the west. The blue in the southeast signifies a sharper trough and better heights up the coast.

thank you for explaining....I know you are busy!! keep up the good work...looking forward to the chat tonight...just registering...

I will be joining the Chat tonight

I've pretty much written this off all along for the interior because I've never seen anything to convince me otherwise.

With that said if this does come to fruition for my coastal friends it is quite a cou for our experts here. I have never seen precipitation probablilties on any sight above 20% for even the coast so the fact you guys have not written it off to this point is quite extraordinary. More so if it actually happens.

PNA is positive during the timeframe of the storm according to the graph from the 0z runs

ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4indices.png

Precip shield much further west with 12z Euro. As Frank says, this run was also "a pubic hair away." lol

I don't know what it is, but I just keep looking at H5 and H250, and then look at the surface and say something is off.

snow maps from EURO in yet?

Quietace wrote:I don't know what it is, but I just keep looking at H5 and H250, and then look at the surface and say something is off.

in what way is not right?

Quietace wrote:I don't know what it is, but I just keep looking at H5 and H250, and then look at the surface and say something is off.

Its possible the models haven't "caught up" with the surface reflection with the major changes at the 500mb level. I think thats why Frank is having a chat tonight even though the models currently show a glancing blow at the moment.

aiannone wrote:Precip shield much further west with 12z Euro. As Frank says, this run was also "a pubic hair away." lol

that is such a gross way of explaining...lol

nutleyblizzard wrote:

Quietace wrote:I don't know what it is, but I just keep looking at H5 and H250, and then look at the surface and say something is off.

Its possible the models haven't "caught up" with the surface reflection with the major changes at the 500mb level. I think thats why Frank is having a chat tonight even though the models currently show a glancing blow at the moment.

so thinking this could come further west let's hope it keeps dping so and gets us into the real good stuff.

nutleyblizzard wrote:

Quietace wrote:I don't know what it is, but I just keep looking at H5 and H250, and then look at the surface and say something is off.

Its possible the models haven't "caught up" with the surface reflection with the major changes at the 500mb level. I think thats why Frank is having a chat tonight even though the models currently show a glancing blow at the moment.

I know that is the reason. We have had this issue before, just waiting for models to adjust the surface representation.