January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Hearing 00z UKMET looks nice....crap can't go to bed yet.

00z German!!

Frank_Wx wrote:Model recap then bed:

00z RGEM - hit
00z NAM - hit
00z SREFS - hit

These are your hi res models
_____________________

00z GFS - miss
00z CMC - miss
00z EURO - ?
These are your global models
______________________

So...

Which camp is right? For whatever it's worth, hi res models beat out the global models in last year's blizzard.

Ya have to go with the Hi Res camp, cause we are Weather Weenies.............

Frank_Wx wrote:Hearing 00z UKMET looks nice....crap can't go to bed yet.

lol.. are you working from home tom..so that you can sleep in a few extra min?? ..by the way started snowing a few minutes ago and everything is covering quick....thanks for a great chat...and that room worked great!!

Frank_Wx wrote:Hearing 00z UKMET looks nice....crap can't go to bed yet.

Sleep in a little late and say the snow caused you to be late...............

Yup, UKMET is west. This is H5. Look how the southern energy is pointing right at us.



Good news before bed. Yay!!! Sleep happy. EURO and UKMET normally agree

Model recap then bed:

00z RGEM - hit
00z NAM - hit
00z SREFS - hit

These are your hi res models
_____________________

00z GFS - miss
00z CMC - miss
00z GERMAN - hit
00z UKMET - hit
00z EURO - ?
These are your global models
______________________

So...

Which camp is right? For whatever it's worth, hi res models beat out the global models in last year's blizzard.

00z GERMAN model total snow

weatherwatchermom wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Hearing 00z UKMET looks nice....crap can't go to bed yet.

lol.. are you working from home tom..so that you can sleep in a few extra min?? ..by the way started snowing a few minutes ago and everything is covering quick....thanks for a great chat...and that room worked great!!

Joe Snow wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Hearing 00z UKMET looks nice....crap can't go to bed yet.

Sleep in a little late and say the snow caused you to be late...............

Yes, I am working from home tomorrow. Lucky to work in a company that let's me do that

Frank_Wx wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Hearing 00z UKMET looks nice....crap can't go to bed yet.

lol.. are you working from home tom..so that you can sleep in a few extra min?? ..by the way started snowing a few minutes ago and everything is covering quick....thanks for a great chat...and that room worked great!!

Joe Snow wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Hearing 00z UKMET looks nice....crap can't go to bed yet.

Sleep in a little late and say the snow caused you to be late...............

Yes, I am working from home tomorrow. Lucky to work in a company that let's me do that

Very great communte (my friend does too), don't have to change and its a walk to the computer lol

Frank_Wx wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Hearing 00z UKMET looks nice....crap can't go to bed yet.

lol.. are you working from home tom..so that you can sleep in a few extra min?? ..by the way started snowing a few minutes ago and everything is covering quick....thanks for a great chat...and that room worked great!!

Joe Snow wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Hearing 00z UKMET looks nice....crap can't go to bed yet.

Sleep in a little late and say the snow caused you to be late...............

Yes, I am working from home tomorrow. Lucky to work in a company that let's me do that

my husband's co the same..very flex actually if it's heavy snow they tell them to work from home..if ling h t they have delayed opening...
I am now wide awake...

The 00z UKIE is DEF west and lookin' good kids...

12z



00z

Good post from someone else. He mentions the possible convective feedback low resolution models are having with this storm. Making me more convinced HI Res models leading the way.

Really questioning

A: How the isobars get stretched out right along the high area of QPF (pretty much a QPF bomb)
B: How the low jumps around from the one area of high QPF to the other high area in the subsequent frame.

I think the UKMET is run at a resolution of around 15km (?) in its highest resolution grids, so this could be some convective contamination artifact

00z UKMET



12z UKMET



Clearly west. Confidence of accumulating snow increased from 30 to 40%

Goodnight

SoulSingMG wrote:EURO TRENDED WEST!!!!!

oh praise the weather gods! Anyone up who has access to the maps?

jmanley32 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:EURO TRENDED WEST!!!!!

oh praise the weather gods! Anyone up who has access to the maps?

I don't, but it's very similar to UKMET. At least a 75 mile jump west.

On tt hard tell no precip map but is still pretty outside the bm. I bet we see more jogs west tomorrow even on hi results models and everyone go b scramble at end of day to get the bread and milk lol

Latest SREF's are SE a TAD. Like, negligible. Seem more amped but QPF over the city backed off a bit. Ok, bedtime. I'm always the last one up on here.

SoulSingMG wrote:Latest SREF's are SE a TAD. Like, negligible. Seem more amped but QPF over the city backed off a bit. Ok, bedtime. I'm always the last one up on here.

SREF's about 20-25 miles SE of last run. Not what I was looking for and hopefully not a trend eastward now. Need a shift 50-75 miles north and west to help interior but doubtful that's in the cards at this late stage.

Winter storm watch up for eastern Suffolk County, LI

Oy check gfs RGEM and nam 06z so far all qpf backed off some or a lot to the east mostly around city and the other westetn progression it made last night sigh....

Today's runs are huge

jmanley32 wrote:Oy check gfs RGEM and nam 06z so far all qpf backed off some or a lot to the east mostly around city and the other westetn progression it made last night sigh....

Meh. Probably just model noise. Besides I'm one of those believers that the 6z suite is an off run. 12z and tonights 0z will be huge.

Here is my first call snow map:  Confidence is low to moderate.  Obviously with models(s/r and global) still back and forth with exact track and QPF amounts from run to run these totals still may shift in either direction.  Looking at temp profiles it does look like a general 12:1 to 15:1 ratio snow event is probable.  With higher ratios small shifts in QPF one way or the other could be significant in snow totals for any given back yard.  I think we are in tight enough where global model runs going forward might not be the best gauge.  I think the S/R models will lead us home here.  Overall all the short range models have once again shifted snow totals slight SE on the 6z runs when compared to their 00z's totals so again there is still no definitive consensus.  Adjustments to this map will be made tomorrow if necessary.

A negative about the EURO is it did not show any partial phasing. I hate to rely on strictly the southern stream energy. In my opinion, if we don't phase partially with northern stream this will be a light event. May even risk missing completely.

Frank_Wx wrote:A negative about the EURO is it did not show any partial phasing. I hate to rely on strictly the southern stream energy. In my opinion, if we don't phase partially with northern stream this will be a light event. May even risk missing completely.

We def need a rapidly deepening low and the confluent zone to be up into at least mid NYS. When looking at the euro verbatim even though there was minimal interactions with the northern piece the S energy came in stronger, and the 300mb and 200mb jet streaks trended stronger and in better position IMO when compared to 12z yest. As long as the S stream energy is strong enough we should get height fields to raise enough out ahead to expand the precip shield appropriately. If not though even though a bombimg low the cutoffs on the NW side will be quite sharp and hopefully not disappointingly sharp. Interesting next 24hrs of hi res model runs.