Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 05, 2017 2:03 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:
Quietace wrote:I don't know what it is, but I just keep looking at H5 and H250, and then look at the surface and say something is off.
Its possible the models haven't "caught up" with the surface reflection with the major changes at the 500mb level. I think thats why Frank is having a chat tonight even though the models currently show a glancing blow at the moment.

so thinking this could come further west let's hope it keeps dping so and gets us into the real good stuff.

by **Quietace** Thu Jan 05, 2017 2:03 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:
Quietace wrote:I don't know what it is, but I just keep looking at H5 and H250, and then look at the surface and say something is off.
Its possible the models haven't "caught up" with the surface reflection with the major changes at the 500mb level. I think thats why Frank is having a chat tonight even though the models currently show a glancing blow at the moment.

I know that is the reason. We have had this issue before, just waiting for models to adjust the surface representation.

by **Dunnzoo** Thu Jan 05, 2017 2:05 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:3k-NAM shows Godzilla for Skins

Road trip to Jenks Saturday!

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 05, 2017 2:06 pm

Quietace wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:
Quietace wrote:I don't know what it is, but I just keep looking at H5 and H250, and then look at the surface and say something is off.
Its possible the models haven't "caught up" with the surface reflection with the major changes at the 500mb level. I think thats why Frank is having a chat tonight even though the models currently show a glancing blow at the moment.
I know that is the reason. We have had this issue before, just waiting for models to adjust the surface representation.

nice tgat Sr models are coming into range so we have lots to go off of at 00z. And even more so at 12z tomorrow. Bring her in guys!

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Jan 05, 2017 2:10 pm

SREFS BUMPED N&W AGAIN

OLD

January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 11 SREFNE24Precip15054

NEW

January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 11 SREFNE24Precip15060

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Jan 05, 2017 2:14 pm

Big spread to the BM

January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 11 SREFSLPSpread15054

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 05, 2017 2:18 pm

This looks really good any further west and wit ratios could b pushing Godzilla even into nyc and just n w suburbs. I hope it gets further than that but remains to be seen. Still being cautiously optimistic.

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 05, 2017 2:20 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:SREFS BUMPED N&W AGAIN

OLD

NEW

more heavy too look at that light blue way offshore. Signs it's bombing out?

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Jan 05, 2017 2:23 pm

Look at the mean leaning west

January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 11 586e9bd4416bf_ScreenHunter_273Jan_0514_16.png.5ac93ee1dd3a7cdcfc3675d367dbf60e

January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 11 586e9bd4416bf_ScreenHunter_273Jan_0514_16.png.5ac93ee1dd3a7cdcfc3675d367dbf60e

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Jan 05, 2017 2:27 pm

To recap today:

Every single piece of guidance trended weaker with Wave 1 and stronger / further west with Wave 2. It is no coincidence that a weaker Wave 1 results in a track closer to the coast for Wave 2. We're seeing heights respond better along the coast, allowing the southern s/w energy to track further north rather than east.

Every aspect of the 500mb picture has improved. The western ridge, northern stream energy, southern stream energy, etc. There is not one negative I can think of. Keep in mind northern stream sampling will not be ingested into model data until 12z models tomorrow. The fact we're seeing these trends before the full sampling is great news in my mind.

If we continue seeing these positive trends in 00z guidance tonight, it will put most of the area under a CCB capable of dropping moderate snowfall amounts.

I will see you all in the chat tonight.

by **lglickman1** Thu Jan 05, 2017 2:31 pm

Is there anything in the northern stream sampling that could through a kink in the whole thing? Stronger northern energy that is slower than the southern energy is what we want, right?

by **Snow88** Thu Jan 05, 2017 2:34 pm

0.50 QPF on the SREF plumes for LGA

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Jan 05, 2017 2:34 pm

lglickman1 wrote:Is there anything in the northern stream sampling that could through a kink in the whole thing? Stronger northern energy that is slower than the southern energy is what we want, right?

I would like to see a stronger northern stream that digs faster into the southern stream. This would sharpen the trough faster, allowing the surface low to track closer to the coast. So yes, the sampling can be both good OR bad news but given today's trends, I am hoping it's more positive.

Let's not forget the NAM and SREFS should at least a 6"+ snowfall for most right now, with ratios.

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Jan 05, 2017 2:34 pm

Snow88 wrote:0.50 QPF on the SREF plumes for LGA

by **SoulSingMG** Thu Jan 05, 2017 2:38 pm

Snow88 wrote:0.50 QPF on the SREF plumes for LGA

Curious how much of that is from wave #1...

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Jan 05, 2017 2:38 pm

Anthony you made the same mistake as Alex yesterday. That .50 includes the 1st event. For the 2nd event, it's about .25" (or 3-6" of snow).

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Jan 05, 2017 2:53 pm

EPS looks like OP but they lean WEST

January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 11 586ea3eaa379c

by **amugs** Thu Jan 05, 2017 2:55 pm

Peeps great improvements looking at the maps today:
One I think the surface is not reflecting the H5- I am still convinced until proven wrong that the STJ will juice this bad boy out and that the Northern Vort will come in much stronger that what is being modelled hence things are being under modelled. We have a slower Southern Stream and the jets streak down tehre will make this explode with precip model are starting to show this - we have about another 36 hours till we nail this down - who's in raise a your hand!!

cheers