January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

A negative about the EURO is it did not show any partial phasing. I hate to rely on strictly the southern stream energy. In my opinion, if we don't phase partially with northern stream this will be a light event. May even risk missing completely.

Frank_Wx wrote:A negative about the EURO is it did not show any partial phasing. I hate to rely on strictly the southern stream energy. In my opinion, if we don't phase partially with northern stream this will be a light event. May even risk missing completely.

We def need a rapidly deepening low and the confluent zone to be up into at least mid NYS. When looking at the euro verbatim even though there was minimal interactions with the northern piece the S energy came in stronger, and the 300mb and 200mb jet streaks trended stronger and in better position IMO when compared to 12z yest. As long as the S stream energy is strong enough we should get height fields to raise enough out ahead to expand the precip shield appropriately. If not though even though a bombimg low the cutoffs on the NW side will be quite sharp and hopefully not disappointingly sharp. Interesting next 24hrs of hi res model runs.

Biggest 12z model runs since December 25th, 2010.

Do u think it is realistic to expect any significant changes this close to the actual start time?

No, start time would be 7-8am tomorrow

lglickman1 wrote:Do u think it is realistic to expect any significant changes this close to the actual start time?

I guess that is a relative question.  Do I expect it?  Lets put it this way I would not be surprised to see the QPF amounts to shift by as much as 25-50miles still.  To give you an example of how significant that might be lets use the 00z Euro from last night's QPF output.  My back yard currently sits in the 0.5" QPF zone.  As is stands on this run verbatim at a 12:1 ratio I would see apprrox 6".  However; If you shift that 0.5" line a mere 25miles in either direction NW or SE that would change my potential snow totals drastically.  For instance.  A mere 25mile Jog NW with this QPF line brings me into the 0.7-0.8 QPF which at 12:1 is 10-12".  However, shift it 25miles further S&E and it puts me in the 0.2-0.3" QPF zone, or 3-4".  That's a max range between 3"-12" with only a tiny 25mile change to LP track or expansion of the precip field.  So to answer your question more directly I actually do expect only minor changes to cont over the next 24hrs in the modeling the results of which will be significant for someone.  

Well if that's true and today busted 3 inches low for me then by snow maps I may get an inch or two tomorrow since last night they included a few inches. Oh well I'm hoping there is sudden nw shift at 12z today u never know. But frank ur prolly right.

Frank_Wx wrote:No, start time would be 7-8am tomorrow

Hmm I read it slightly different. I thought the question was referring the fact that since we are so close to the start time will we see significant changes to the result.

What scares me is the weak to moderate vertical velocities at best depicted on the NAM.

jmanley32 wrote:Well if that's true and today busted 3 inches low for me then by snow maps I may get an inch or two tomorrow since last night they included a few inches. Oh well I'm hoping there is sudden nw shift at 12z today u never know. But frank ur prolly right.

Today busted? Every piece of guidance since last night has shown nothing more than a coating to 1 inch for many people. 2" for southern areas and parts of Long Island.

I got about 1"

Frank- when are the 12z model runs?

About an inch on grassy surfaces in Bradley Beach. Also a delayed opening at school and that can never be a bust!

The NAM will start us off in about an Hr dsix

Ty kind sir.

Frank my wwa said 1 to 4 was go by that. I was thinking I'd get at least an inch. No biggie.

sroc4 wrote:Here is my first call snow map:  Confidence is low to moderate.  Obviously with models(s/r and global) still back and forth with exact track and QPF amounts from run to run these totals still may shift in either direction.  Looking at temp profiles it does look like a general 12:1 to 15:1 ratio snow event is probable.  With higher ratios small shifts in QPF one way or the other could be significant in snow totals for any given back yard.  I think we are in tight enough where global model runs going forward might not be the best gauge.  I think the S/R models will lead us home here.  Overall all the short range models have once again shifted snow totals slight SE on the 6z runs when compared to their 00z's totals so again there is still no definitive consensus.  Adjustments to this map will be made tomorrow if necessary.

I would like to point out that the NW side of this map has a much higher Bust potential on the low side, because of two reasons. 1st there is no doubt going to be sharp cutoffs. With the current set up NW precip expansion tends to not get quite as far N&W as is modeled, and 2) Like this mornings system since the blocking in the Atlantic is minimal to non existent the system moving NE faster than anticipated is of course a strong possibility. I will up date this map later tonight or in the am pending the trends today.

SREFs cut back on QPF. The spread still looks west of the mean, but at this point we're running out of time and any bad news we get today will be hard to reverse trend on.

roccuweather wrote:About an inch on grassy surfaces in Bradley Beach.  Also a delayed opening at school and that can never be a bust!

are you kidding..you got a school delay...lol...we got an inch too....kid at school on time and coffee is in hand...ready for the roller coaster ride today!!

Frank_Wx wrote:SREFs cut back on QPF. The spread still looks west of the mean, but at this point we're running out of time and any bad news we get today will be hard to reverse trend on.

Super disconcerting. Everything is backing off from last night's SR optimism. We're literally out of time. 12z will be telling.

Frank_Wx wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Well if that's true and today busted 3 inches low for me then by snow maps I may get an inch or two tomorrow since last night they included a few inches. Oh well I'm hoping there is sudden nw shift at 12z today u never know. But frank ur prolly right.

Today busted? Every piece of guidance since last night has shown nothing more than a coating to 1 inch for many people. 2" for southern areas and parts of Long Island.

I got about 1"

Some towns out east on Long Island like Riverhead, Mattituck got 4.1" per trained spotters, Southampton received 3" so far, the forecasts were spot on C"-2" & 2-4"

sroc4 wrote:The NAM will start us off in about an Hr dsix

thanks for the info....I can get some cleaning done...what are the girls in your office getting today for their snacks??

Pattern screams expect the worst, but kid in me will hope for the best.

Bernie not too enthused with this storm either
http://www.accuweather.com/en/videos/accuweather-experts/snowstorm-from-the-carolinas-to-eastern-new-england/2430839568001

Rb may have been right. If so major win for him.

weatherwatchermom wrote:

sroc4 wrote:The NAM will start us off in about an Hr dsix

thanks for the info....I can get some cleaning done...what are the girls in your office getting today for their snacks??

LOL. Maybe Ill buy them Italian for lunch today.

12z NAM coming in now. Looks better than 06z so far. Jet streak is stronger, trough is sharper.

Laughable difference at the upper levels. Trough is neutral / sharper opposed to positive, and the jet streak is significantly stronger.