January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

12z NAM coming in now. Looks better than 06z so far. Jet streak is stronger, trough is sharper.

Laughable difference at the upper levels. Trough is neutral / sharper opposed to positive, and the jet streak is significantly stronger.

Maybe I'm missing something but the people in the know that run this board never gave a probability of higher than 30-40% of most of us even getting accumulating snow, everyone else started speculating Godzilla, Roidzilla, SECS, MESC,HECS, etc etc, from a few isolated model runs.

People have to start reading what's being said instead of rampant speculation and trying to read between the lines that don't exist.

I'lll throw out one example, I hear on this board all the time after a model run, Boston getting hammered again. Yes Boston has had a great winter if you base it on the model runs, the reality is they've had less than 6 inches of snow so far this entire winter. A few model runs do not a winter make.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Maybe I'm missing something but the people in the know that run this board never gave a probability of higher than 30-40% of most of us even getting accumulating snow, everyone else started speculating Godzilla Roidzilla from a few isolated model runs.

People have to start reading what's being said instead of rampant speculation and trying to read between the lines that don't exist.

I'lll throw out one example, I hear on this board all the time after a model run, Boston getting hammered again. Yes Boston has had a great winter if yoou base it on the model runs, the reality is they've had less than 6 inches of snow so far this entire winter. A few model runs do not a winter make.

Good post. You are correct CP. Last night I pegged odds of accumulating snowfall, by definition meaning >1", at 40%. Scott put out his map this morning and the most he has is 4-8"

The potential for a Godzilla existed, but the pattern says screw off.

The jet streak on the 12z NAM is sick.

Frank_Wx wrote:The jet streak on the 12z NAM is sick.

woah strongest I think we seen?

Unfortunately I think we're in a situation where the baroclinic zone is too far S&E and the STJ energy does not have the help it needs to go north. The upper level dynamics should bring snow to parts of the coast, but the threat of a big region-wide storm is over in my book.

Fun tracking at least. And that chat was awesome!

Frank_Wx wrote:Unfortunately I think we're in a situation where the baroclinic zone is too far S&E and the STJ energy does not have the help it needs to go north. The upper level dynamics should bring snow to parts of the coast, but the threat of a big region-wide storm is over in my book.

Fun tracking at least. And that chat was awesome!

Onto the next threat (which is...? Lol) — that chat platform is way better, btw. And of course, what I feared all along, another hat tip to Raymond. ;-)

I am not going to be one to agree the surface should be better in response to the improved upper levels. In my opinion, the STJ energy is riding a gradient that is too far S&E of our area. It needed help from the polar energy to take a path due north opposed to east-northeast. Background state +NAO is not helping matters and really could have been the difference for an area-wide large snowfall event. At this juncture, I am pulling the plug on anything significant and sticking with a light snowfall for the coast. The potential for 3-6" exists for Jersey Shore and parts of LI, and 1-3" for NYC. This could continue trending poorly, however, and almost everyone will be out of seeing any snow.

It was fun tracking at least. I wish I can say the long range looked good.

Upper levels looked good on the nam but the surface is further east. Going to the GFS? It would be a shame to see the area missing out while the southern states get a snowstorm. SMFH.

Thanks frank for all u do. Will wait for next threat if there will b one.

Snow88 wrote:Upper levels looked good on the nam but the surface is further east. Going to the GFS? It would be a shame to see the area missing out while the southern states get a snowstorm. SMFH.

Ihave seen this statement before

central and eastern LI see 3"+ still on the NAM. There will be a sharp cut-off to the west. I may still decide to create a snow map later this afternoon. It's only fair. All this time put in..haha

Upton has a snow map out for tomorrows event expecting 3"-5" but has the potential for 8"-10"

http://www.weather.gov/okx/winter

i'll be cheering for L.I on this one. at least parts of the tri state are getting the goods

Hi Res is coming in better

Frank_Wx wrote:central and eastern LI see 3"+ still on the NAM. There will be a sharp cut-off to the west. I may still decide to create a snow map later this afternoon. It's only fair. All this time put in..haha

I would say SNJ shore(cape may area) up to ELI has chance for 3-5". Rest of JS and LI 1-3". C-2" back to WNJ right now.

Snow88 wrote:Upper levels looked good on the nam but the surface is further east. Going to the GFS? It would be a shame to see the area missing out while the southern states get a snowstorm. SMFH.

Anyone up for a road trip to Virginia Beach? 10-14" expected

syosnow94 wrote:

Snow88 wrote:Upper levels looked good on the nam but the surface is further east. Going to the GFS? It would be a shame to see the area missing out while the southern states get a snowstorm. SMFH.

Anyone up for a road trip to Virginia Beach?  10-14" expected

That will paralyze them.

Are we still going to the bar after this lol anyway so I am guessing NYC will have a winter weather advisory or winter storm watch

3KM NAM

Hi res Nam is west with the precip. Few inches for NYC with more towards LI

Frank_Wx wrote:3KM NAM

With a high ratio snowfall the cutoff will be even more pronounced.

Man, Rayno was spot on yesterday when he said not a big storm for NYC but Boston is still in play. NWS expects 7-9" for them now, and the Cape? Forget about it...

I still see far eastern LI cashing IN on this as well.

sroc4 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:3KM NAM

With a high ratio snowfall the cutoff will be even more pronounced.    

Yup Sharp Cut off - 15 miles south of me will see a couple inches while I may see flurries

15-20:1 ratios

JB has chimed in again with this:

JB says he is still 3 t 6 at NYC and 6 - 8 Monmouth County, and Jersey Coast, Central LI and out . Says he will watch OBX tonight , if the center goes over OBX it`s 6 to 12 NYC metro.

Said why are you worried about the NAM the back edge gets into EPA .

Says we are only 50 miles off at OBX from being fine .

From his God given talent to Big Momma ears.

Discouraging runs this morning for NYC and western and Northern Areas. Remember many times in 78-79 that we sucked cirrus while Cape May county got absolutely hammered, 79-80 as well

Liked the Euro shift last night

can this skid west a bit still and give me in the jersey shore a plowable snow?

jake732 wrote:can this skid west a bit still and give me in the jersey shore a plowable snow?

I very much doubt it.