January 7, 2017 Storm Observations

So I am going to say very little to no chance of me seeing anything in Wyoming Valley?

Mikey P, hard to say.This is a nowcast situation, a jog 25 miles west will help us N and W folks.Radar looks to be filling on the West side.We will see.

Latest surface analysis and upper air indicates our neutral tilt of the trough is still in a neutral tilt slightly going negative a bit. Water vapor indicates a baroclinic leaf off the entire east coast with the best lifting over VA, Delmarva, and now into SE NJ with banding being seen a bit offshore. Dew points between NNJ and SNJ have over a 10 point spread differential (green number), so we can see cold air advection is an issue and dry air with it. However, we're seeing better saturation at 700mb and reports from SNJ and CNJ are for snow currently. Here comes the test as to where subsidence happens and how long before saturation occurs. Also a test for the RGEM, NAM, and other short range mess models. I'd like to see better 700-850mb temp. advection. Happy tracking!

Flakes here

Just started snowing in Douglaston

Flakes now starting to reach the ground here on Central LI

Armando Salvadore wrote:Latest surface analysis and upper air indicates our neutral tilt of the trough is still in a neutral tilt slightly going negative a bit. Water vapor indicates a baroclinic leaf off the entire east coast with the best lifting over VA, Delmarva, and now into SE NJ with banding being seen a bit offshore. Dew points between NNJ and SNJ have over a 10 point spread differential (green number), so we can see cold air advection is an issue and dry air with it. However, we're seeing better saturation at 700mb and reports from SNJ and CNJ are for snow currently. Here comes the test as to where subsidence happens and how long before saturation occurs. Also a test for the RGEM, NAM, and other short range mess models. I'd like to see better 700-850mb temp. advection. Happy tracking!

Very interesting post and helps to understand how cold dry air prevents saturation and therefor lowers snow amounts.Yes, its nowcast time.Let's see how the models play out today.

Moderate anti-virga here.

16 degrees

Snow flurries just started up here. 25*. Now the fun begins!

It started!!!!!!!

Flakes flying now in Hackensack and breezy

Started coming down and sticking in Western Monmouth County

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Moderate anti-virga here.

16 degrees

Same here, moderate to heavy anti-virga, 17.9, 67%, 30.01 R

started snowing ever so lightly about 30 minutes ago....currently 24* rf 16* winds ne @ 9mph humidity is 60%

Doc, CP, Janet..........I feel for you guys.  You know it's sincere.  Going forward the pattern turns unfavorable for us S and E folks and you will all cash in again BIG TIME.  

24 degrees here.  Stiff north wind about 15mph.  WSW in effect.  An average of about .5"qpf should yeild about 6-8 IMBY.

Light snow just started. Very light

dsvinos wrote:Started coming down and sticking in Western Monmouth County

so I guess its coming here to hazlet soon...lol..just starting to stick to the cars... keep us posted..how it is in Marlboro...supposed to go to nieces homecoming dinner later in your neck of the woods...have a great day!

For anyone wondering, 12z NAM back west again.

Flurries here. 24*
Dew point up to 10*

Models don't matter at this point but here the NAM for the heck of it

syosnow94 wrote:Doc, CP, Janet..........I feel for you guys.  You know it's sincere.  Going forward the pattern turns unfavorable for us S and E folks and you will all cash in again BIG TIME.  

24 degrees here.  Stiff north wind about 15mph.  WSW in effect.  An average of about .5"qpf should yeild about 6-8 IMBY.

Light snow just started.  Very light

No problem Jimmy, you guys enjoy the day and hope you all bust high out there.Maybe we can squeeze out a few inches N and W today if this baby jogs west a bit.We will see.

Greenpoint, Brooklyn, 23.1 degrees, light snow just began.

Frank_Wx wrote:

Models don't matter at this point but here the NAM for the heck of it

woah and I font think they use ratios do they? If not that's a huge uptic.

AWESOME example of jet dynamics! Storm is currently is SE of South Carolina, however, the right rear entrance of the jet streak is causing for an enhancement to the precipitation shield because of the divergence sector. By the way, reporting snow flakes here in NE NJ with a DP of 7. Temp is at 23 degrees.

Frank_Wx wrote:

hopefully that dark green can get west.

Dewpoints in the 20s here up from 12° great sign

Frank that jet looks to be just where u wanted it to b to get things west no?