January 7, 2017 Storm Observations

Me and the bully

you can see it clearer here north of nyc when the higher returns moved in they disipated. is that that subsidence talked about, what is drying up that area?

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/northeast_loop.php

Coming down big-time here 4 inches

Radar returns look like TOMS river is into some HEavy snow

The only thing more fun than the radar right now are the "dog in snow" pics. Haha. :-)

eyeballing 1.5" here, but radar returns lessening for NNJ, not sure how much more to come....

jmanley32 wrote:is it just me or is the precip shild shrinking se? it was north of middleown ny now south of it, hope this is just a blip.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=dix&loop=yes

Noticing that too Jman.Seems like the NW edge is breaking down right now.Maybe the storm took a S and E jog???
Still have light to moderate snow here but right on the edge now.

19.2, 83%, 29.91F

TWC just said 4-6" for LI. Already have 2".....

Heaviest snow yet!!! I'm not sure but is there any chance I just saw lightning and heard thunder. My wife says yes. I'm not so sure?

docstox12 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:is it just me or is the precip shild shrinking se? it was north of middleown ny now south of it, hope this is just a blip.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=dix&loop=yes

Noticing that too Jman.Seems like the NW edge is breaking down right now.Maybe the storm took a S and E jog???
Still have light to moderate snow here but right on the edge now.

19.2, 83%, 29.91F

If you go to the radar that Frank has on top and click on AccuWeather regional radar you'll see the Bands re developing and moving back North don't worry especially areas near the city doc I still think you'll still see some snow up there not sure how much though

OK Al, thanks for the update.Coming up on an inch here.Pleasantly surprised, thought I'd bust out.Blowing around now.

Nice big dendrites now moderate snow going to go measure in a little while looks like 2 inches maybe a little over

algae888 wrote:Nice big dendrites now moderate snow going to go measure in a little while looks like 2 inches maybe a little over

Wow really amazing the differences a few miles make, very fine here now in a lull. Eyeballing doesn't look like an inch but ill check soon.

we have about 2.5 inches so far


she wants to do her business and get in and he is dying to play...

Great doggie shots everybody!! Looks like our four legged friends are having a blast outside today!!!

Now only light snow.Hoping radar fills in.Maybe an inch.

19.4 82% 29.91 F

I owe everybody an apology for this event. I honestly did not think that this was going to materialize for anybody else other than areas east of the Parkway. I thought there would be too much low-level adiabatic compression immediately northwest of the lower-level frontogenesis for the jet to overpower and lift the precipitation shield northward. I also did not think the H5 energy would get as far north as it has, and allow the "gap" in forcings to be filled. The writing was on the wall for this event, and I failed to see it. Lesson learned for next time! To all of the leaders on here who stood their ground on this event, THE HAT TIP GOES TO YOU, my friends. Enjoy!!

2.5" of snow here in St. James, LI

Anyone venture to guess what the ratios are now? I am at 19F with a dewpoint of 15F. I am figuring at least 15:1.

jmanley32 wrote:

algae888 wrote:Nice big dendrites now moderate snow going to go measure in a little while looks like 2 inches maybe a little over

Wow really amazing the differences a few miles make, very fine here now in a lull.  Eyeballing doesn't look like an inch but ill check soon.

1.7" picked up about a half inch in the last hour. Snow has been steady with a variation of big and small flakes. We don't need heavy snow the snow growth region is very healthy. Still got a ways to go before this ends

rb924119 wrote:I owe everybody an apology for this event. I honestly did not think that this was going to materialize for anybody else other than areas east of the Parkway. I thought there would be too much low-level adiabatic compression immediately northwest of the lower-level frontogenesis for the jet to overpower and lift the precipitation shield northward. I also did not think the H5 energy would get as far north as it has, and allow the "gap" in forcings to be filled. The writing was on the wall for this event, and I failed to see it. Lesson learned for next time! To all of the leaders on here who stood their ground on this event, THE HAT TIP GOES TO YOU, my friends. Enjoy!!

Rb you do a great job and we appreciate your input. The one thing the models have been doing this winter so far is over playing the cold probably because the Southeast ridge is been pretty strong this year which helped us in this situation. People in South Carolina and North Carolina were crying this morning as the GFS showed them getting heavy snow and they got very little if any because the cold push never made it that far south.

Ray, you stuck to your guns. Never change. Your input here is well regarded.

I just used a blower to remove snow off my property. I LOVE HIGH RATIO EVENTS

22* Heavy snow here Best so far today Does this go to at least 5-6pm??

rb,apology?? No WAY.You do a great job here and what you long range guys are trying to do is very difficult.Interpreting these models is not only a science but an art, and for the life of me, I'll never be able to get a grip on it.Thats why Im glad you, Frank, Doc, Al and some of the new guys recently are so valuable to our site.

I'll never forget the words of Bill Evans on the old Channel 7 board..."Models are for guidance purposes only"

Keep up the great work you, and all the other long range crew.

Frank_Wx wrote:Ray, you stuck to your guns. Never change. Your input here is well regarded.

I just used a blower to remove snow off my property. I LOVE HIGH RATIO EVENTS

LOL, we all do who have to shovel Frank but I'll bet the Chiropracters aren't too happy!

20.3, 81% 29.90 F Light snow.Looks like an inch.

About 1.5 here, coming down i'd say moderately small flakes.

Nobody on here ever needs to apologize for giving their best opinion based on their analysis. This is s very inexact science and is extremely challenging. We're talking about global factors affecting systems where 50-100 miles makes all the difference. We're lucky to have so many smart, skilled people here to keep us ahead of the curve on these events.

Coast has to be getting at least 2" per hour rates. Some intense DBZ banding going on over the southern 3/4 of NJ. Lines up nicely with the 700mb Fronto. and 850mb feature seen over EVA. Quite the anomalous jet streak north of us and as stated several times, divergence is favorable. Having a blast tracking and radar watching, as well as seeing pictures and reports! What is better than snow on a Saturday!!