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January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 20, 2017 9:45 pm

@rb924119 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Wow!

January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions - Page 9 Nam_3h10

S
L
E
E
T
GFS Model Brick Tired Mad shout

oh yeah right, ewww, did u see 925mb winds omg, even stronger.
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Post by billg315 Fri Jan 20, 2017 9:46 pm

Is it just me or is the media, and frankly the NWS and some private forecasting outfits, missing the boat on this one? I can't imagine if it was August and a storm with 70 mph winds and heavy rain (you know what we call them in the summer) was headed for the Jersey Shore that it wouldn't be getting major coverage and discussion.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 20, 2017 9:47 pm

January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions - Page 9 Namne_10
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 20, 2017 9:48 pm

@billg315 wrote:Is it just me or is the media, and frankly the NWS and some private forecasting outfits, missing the boat on this one? I can't imagine if it was August and a storm with 70 mph winds and heavy rain (you know what we call them in the summer) was headed for the Jersey Shore that it wouldn't be getting major coverage and discussion.

not just you im baffled, it is esentuially as strong wind wise as a strong TS.
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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 20, 2017 9:50 pm

I HATE SLEET

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 20, 2017 9:50 pm

Thats seriously 21 inches of sleet?
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Post by Guest Fri Jan 20, 2017 9:52 pm

rb, do you have the New England version of that map? If there is one that is.

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 20, 2017 9:53 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Thats seriously 21 inches of sleet?

Hahaha no, silly :p it's basically the model accumulating sleet like it would snow. Tough to explain. It's almost like its assuming the sleet is snow, and then accumulating it as such because it doesn't recognize sleet as an accumulation. Make sense?

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 20, 2017 9:55 pm

@TheAresian wrote:rb, do you have the New England version of that map? If there is one that is.

Nice to look at, isn't it? lmfao :'(

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 20, 2017 9:55 pm

ok so its the qpf equivelent of sleet?
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Post by billg315 Fri Jan 20, 2017 9:57 pm

Makes sense to me. That's still a lot of sleet though. What would you say (understanding sleet doesn't accumulate as high as snow) is the ratio of sleet to snow in inches (i.e. 6" snow is 1" sleet)?
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Post by Guest Fri Jan 20, 2017 9:57 pm

I don't know about you guys, but both the 2m and 850 temps are hovering right around freezing in my area. If this thing can generate enough cold air to drop the temps 3-5 degrees.....

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 20, 2017 9:57 pm

@billg315 wrote:Makes sense to me. That's still a lot of sleet though. What would you say (understanding sleet doesn't accumulate as high as snow) is the ratio of sleet to snow in inches (i.e. 6" snow is 1" sleet)?
coupled with that wind owwwww tear ur face off!!!!
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Post by billg315 Fri Jan 20, 2017 9:59 pm

Haha, JMan I didn't even think of that. Lol. Sleet propelled by 60 mph winds? It would skin you alive.
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Post by Guest Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:00 pm

Frozen buckshot.

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:01 pm

@TheAresian wrote:I don't know about you guys, but both the 2m and 850 temps are hovering right around freezing in my area. If this thing can generate enough cold air to drop the temps 3-5 degrees.....

850s and 925s definitely look subfreezing, but I'm checking you for a warm nose right now......

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Post by billg315 Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:02 pm

It'll shoot your eye out kid.
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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:03 pm

@rb924119 wrote:
@TheAresian wrote:I don't know about you guys, but both the 2m and 850 temps are hovering right around freezing in my area. If this thing can generate enough cold air to drop the temps 3-5 degrees.....

850s and 925s definitely look subfreezing, but I'm checking you for a warm nose right now......

Hold on, Accuweather doesn't have the 00z's yet lol But I will check for you

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Post by Guest Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:07 pm

I just remembered something. Syo told me a few days ago that I'd get crushed with snow from this and I told him that I'd build him a snowman with a crown on it if he was right.

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:09 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:ok so its the qpf equivelent of sleet?

You can think of it that way, sure. Wherever you see the "snow", look at the liquid equivalent and that's how much liquid equivalent of sleet you would get during the period of "snow accumulation". As for the ratio of snow to sleet, usually about 3:1; 3" of snow to 1" of sleet.

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Post by billg315 Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:12 pm

That being the case on that map Id be looking at 2-3" of sleet where I am.
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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:17 pm

I'll tell ya what, if that mini-closed low at H5 never closed and remained strung out so that the base of the main trough swinging through the South could be the focal point, the NAM would have been an interior crush job like the CMC. That mini-low is gumming up the works because it forces the energy in the base of the trough to start revolving around a central axis between the two, which forces the trough more negative faster.

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Post by Dtone Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:20 pm

Storm Watch for Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY
Issuing Office: New York City
Source: National.Weather.Service
3:08pm EST, Fri Jan 20
... STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A STORM WATCH... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT. * WINDS AND SEAS... NORTHEAST WINDS 40 TO 45 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 KT ON OCEAN... 35 TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS. SEAS 16 TO 21 FEET ON THE OCEAN... AND 5 TO 10 FT ON LONG ISLAND SOUND. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A STORM WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF STORM FORCE WINDS OF 48 TO 63 KT HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED... BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER ALTERING THEIR PLANS. &&

That's some big waves.


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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:21 pm

I would think the energy would want to consolidate in the base of the trough and overpower it but that isn't happening on the NAM. But what's strange is the NAM is the only model to have that mini-low at H5. The other models have a broader trough with one main area of energy and diverge with the direction in which it goes. Crazy.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:28 pm

Well maybe the Nam is not right def wouldn't b the first time.
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