January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions

This question is getting old by now, but is it possible/likely this storm generates some of its own cold air and drives temps down a few degrees?

This just keeps getting stronger

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Wow!

S
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oh yeah right, ewww, did u see 925mb winds omg, even stronger.

Is it just me or is the media, and frankly the NWS and some private forecasting outfits, missing the boat on this one? I can't imagine if it was August and a storm with 70 mph winds and heavy rain (you know what we call them in the summer) was headed for the Jersey Shore that it wouldn't be getting major coverage and discussion.

billg315 wrote:Is it just me or is the media, and frankly the NWS and some private forecasting outfits, missing the boat on this one? I can't imagine if it was August and a storm with 70 mph winds and heavy rain (you know what we call them in the summer) was headed for the Jersey Shore that it wouldn't be getting major coverage and discussion.

not just you im baffled, it is esentuially as strong wind wise as a strong TS.

I HATE SLEET

Thats seriously 21 inches of sleet?

rb, do you have the New England version of that map? If there is one that is.

jmanley32 wrote:Thats seriously 21 inches of sleet?

Hahaha no, silly :p it's basically the model accumulating sleet like it would snow. Tough to explain. It's almost like its assuming the sleet is snow, and then accumulating it as such because it doesn't recognize sleet as an accumulation. Make sense?

TheAresian wrote:rb, do you have the New England version of that map? If there is one that is.

Nice to look at, isn't it? lmfao :'(

ok so its the qpf equivelent of sleet?

Makes sense to me. That's still a lot of sleet though. What would you say (understanding sleet doesn't accumulate as high as snow) is the ratio of sleet to snow in inches (i.e. 6" snow is 1" sleet)?

I don't know about you guys, but both the 2m and 850 temps are hovering right around freezing in my area. If this thing can generate enough cold air to drop the temps 3-5 degrees.....

billg315 wrote:Makes sense to me. That's still a lot of sleet though. What would you say (understanding sleet doesn't accumulate as high as snow) is the ratio of sleet to snow in inches (i.e. 6" snow is 1" sleet)?

coupled with that wind owwwww tear ur face off!!!!

Haha, JMan I didn't even think of that. Lol. Sleet propelled by 60 mph winds? It would skin you alive.

Frozen buckshot.

TheAresian wrote:I don't know about you guys, but both the 2m and 850 temps are hovering right around freezing in my area. If this thing can generate enough cold air to drop the temps 3-5 degrees.....

850s and 925s definitely look subfreezing, but I'm checking you for a warm nose right now......

It'll shoot your eye out kid.

rb924119 wrote:

TheAresian wrote:I don't know about you guys, but both the 2m and 850 temps are hovering right around freezing in my area. If this thing can generate enough cold air to drop the temps 3-5 degrees.....

850s and 925s definitely look subfreezing, but I'm checking you for a warm nose right now......

Hold on, Accuweather doesn't have the 00z's yet lol But I will check for you

I just remembered something. Syo told me a few days ago that I'd get crushed with snow from this and I told him that I'd build him a snowman with a crown on it if he was right.

jmanley32 wrote:ok so its the qpf equivelent of sleet?

You can think of it that way, sure. Wherever you see the "snow", look at the liquid equivalent and that's how much liquid equivalent of sleet you would get during the period of "snow accumulation". As for the ratio of snow to sleet, usually about 3:1; 3" of snow to 1" of sleet.

That being the case on that map Id be looking at 2-3" of sleet where I am.

I'll tell ya what, if that mini-closed low at H5 never closed and remained strung out so that the base of the main trough swinging through the South could be the focal point, the NAM would have been an interior crush job like the CMC. That mini-low is gumming up the works because it forces the energy in the base of the trough to start revolving around a central axis between the two, which forces the trough more negative faster.

Storm Watch for Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY
Issuing Office: New York City
Source: National.Weather.Service
3:08pm EST, Fri Jan 20
... STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A STORM WATCH... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT. * WINDS AND SEAS... NORTHEAST WINDS 40 TO 45 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 KT ON OCEAN... 35 TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS. SEAS 16 TO 21 FEET ON THE OCEAN... AND 5 TO 10 FT ON LONG ISLAND SOUND. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A STORM WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF STORM FORCE WINDS OF 48 TO 63 KT HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED... BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER ALTERING THEIR PLANS. &&

That's some big waves.

I would think the energy would want to consolidate in the base of the trough and overpower it but that isn't happening on the NAM. But what's strange is the NAM is the only model to have that mini-low at H5. The other models have a broader trough with one main area of energy and diverge with the direction in which it goes. Crazy.

Well maybe the Nam is not right def wouldn't b the first time.