January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

GreyBeard wrote:Monday morning thru early evening would be the WORST time to travel.I'd stay an extra night at the casino, shoot craps, play blackjack, have a few coctails and enjoy the show.Have some fun and if the casinos loose power,I'm sure they have backup generators.Hell, you probably won't see your buddy for another 20yrs. so live a little.

LOL no wont b 20 yrs, we see each other every year or two, i appreciate your advice but it looks like the real precip starts later in the day so if i leave early it should just be some gusty winds ill be dealing with. My wife wants me home and its wither cancel stay here or go come back, the place is booked tues and my friend is leaving tues and has go to his parents mon, its a sucky situation.

If you leave early Monday, before noon, you should be ok...

Significantly further east at H5. Ughhhhhhh east trend or just a wobble? We've seen these off runs before, so I'm noting it but not taking it seriously. HOWEVER this is what I was waiting to see at 12Z (Jman), as I have been uneasy, at best, with the solutions of running the H5 low so far northwest into the Canadian block before kicking east or northeast. I've been waiting for an east trend at H5 because of my thought that it doesn't want to/can't take the block head on and should try to escape beneath it and through the weakness in the northwestern Atlantic, but modeling had been insistent. We'll see if it could in fact hold any water, or is just a wobble like before.......

I don't mind a monkey wrench like this.

Oy 00z GFS has the LP stall and has backside precip well into tues!

Dunnzoo wrote:If you leave early Monday, before noon, you should be ok...

I already told him we would leave after breakfast maybe bout 9 10 am, sucks but hey can't take the risk.

rb924119 wrote:Significantly further east at H5. Ughhhhhhh east trend or just a wobble? We've seen these off runs before, so I'm noting it but not taking it seriously. HOWEVER this is what I was waiting to see at 12Z (Jman), as I have been uneasy, at best, with the solutions of running the H5 low so far northwest into the Canadian block before kicking east or northeast. I've been waiting for an east trend at H5 because of my thought that it doesn't want to/can't take the block head on and should try to escape beneath it and through the weakness in the northwestern Atlantic, but modeling had been insistent. We'll see if it could in fact hold any water, or is just a wobble like before.......

Much heavier precip but seems like less wind, so your saying the GFS is showing a lesser impact cuz its moving further offshore? People were saying to watch the SR models now not so much the LR especially GFS as SR its not very good, shoot LR its not lol.

Jeeze precip on GFS through midday Tues.

I knew the models would back off on the wind at the end. This is going to be no worry at all here in toms river

Looks like gfs is matching the pivotalweather nam....

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Significantly further east at H5. Ughhhhhhh east trend or just a wobble? We've seen these off runs before, so I'm noting it but not taking it seriously. HOWEVER this is what I was waiting to see at 12Z (Jman), as I have been uneasy, at best, with the solutions of running the H5 low so far northwest into the Canadian block before kicking east or northeast. I've been waiting for an east trend at H5 because of my thought that it doesn't want to/can't take the block head on and should try to escape beneath it and through the weakness in the northwestern Atlantic, but modeling had been insistent. We'll see if it could in fact hold any water, or is just a wobble like before.......

Much heavier precip but seems like less wind, so your saying the GFS is showing a lesser impact cuz its moving further offshore?  People were saying to watch the SR models now not so much the LR especially GFS as SR its not very good, shoot LR its not lol.

No, it's a colder solution, mainly.

track17 wrote:I knew the models would back off on the wind at the end. This is going to be no worry at all here in toms river

Who said that? Good luck planning for nothing.

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Significantly further east at H5. Ughhhhhhh east trend or just a wobble? We've seen these off runs before, so I'm noting it but not taking it seriously. HOWEVER this is what I was waiting to see at 12Z (Jman), as I have been uneasy, at best, with the solutions of running the H5 low so far northwest into the Canadian block before kicking east or northeast. I've been waiting for an east trend at H5 because of my thought that it doesn't want to/can't take the block head on and should try to escape beneath it and through the weakness in the northwestern Atlantic, but modeling had been insistent. We'll see if it could in fact hold any water, or is just a wobble like before.......

Much heavier precip but seems like less wind, so your saying the GFS is showing a lesser impact cuz its moving further offshore?  People were saying to watch the SR models now not so much the LR especially GFS as SR its not very good, shoot LR its not lol.

No, it's a colder solution, mainly.

Wow def is, -1 C gets into NYC! Doesnt show snow very far south.  Ugg this is getting annoying lol, whats it gonna do only 36 hrs away start or so.

From what I can tell on mobile, it looks like the CMC may be having many of us singing their National Anthem lol don't have H5 yet though

This is no different then any storm the jersey shore sees two or 3 times a year.

TT is only on hr 12 on the CMC. At least on my computer.

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Significantly further east at H5. Ughhhhhhh east trend or just a wobble? We've seen these off runs before, so I'm noting it but not taking it seriously. HOWEVER this is what I was waiting to see at 12Z (Jman), as I have been uneasy, at best, with the solutions of running the H5 low so far northwest into the Canadian block before kicking east or northeast. I've been waiting for an east trend at H5 because of my thought that it doesn't want to/can't take the block head on and should try to escape beneath it and through the weakness in the northwestern Atlantic, but modeling had been insistent. We'll see if it could in fact hold any water, or is just a wobble like before.......

Much heavier precip but seems like less wind, so your saying the GFS is showing a lesser impact cuz its moving further offshore?  People were saying to watch the SR models now not so much the LR especially GFS as SR its not very good, shoot LR its not lol.

No, it's a colder solution, mainly.

Wow def is, -1 C gets into NYC! Doesnt show snow very far south.  Ugg this is getting annoying lol, whats it gonna do only 36 hrs away start or so.

Too much of a warm nose above it at 700, that's why.

rb924119 wrote:From what I can tell on mobile, it looks like the CMC may be having many of us singing their National Anthem lol don't have H5 yet though

CMC shows no snow except way up north.

OH MY CANADA

The suspense is killing me.

rb924119 wrote:OH MY CANADA

what are you singing too, you just said theres too much of a warm nose. I am confused, is it showing the possibility of more likely frozen precip?

rb924119 wrote:OH MY CANADA

I take this back, as it's generally the same at H5 as prior runs. GFS trended toward this, though. Still has to be a pretty formidable warm nose somewhere even though 700 and 850 are both coldn for northwest folks. Makes sense given the location of H5/850. If they go east another 50 miles or so, though, we can have some fun.

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:OH MY CANADA

what are you singing too, you just said theres too much of a warm nose.  I am confused, is it showing the possibility of more likely frozen precip?

For the coast there is at 700 for anything frozen. That's what this was in response to haha sorry for the confusion.

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:OH MY CANADA

what are you singing too, you just said theres too much of a warm nose.  I am confused, is it showing the possibility of more likely frozen precip?

For the coast there is at 700 for anything frozen. That's what this was in response to haha sorry for the confusion.

I am sorry so a warm nose is a bad thing to get frozen precip right? Or is it a good thing? Sorry for the questions, the upper dynamics are still somewhat hard for me to understand thats why ur a met and im not lol

TheAresian wrote:The suspense is killing me.

personally I think you will see sleet or snow or both, your pretty far away from coast, not exactly sutre where ur painted post is, but heres hoping it gets painted white lol

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:OH MY CANADA

what are you singing too, you just said theres too much of a warm nose.  I am confused, is it showing the possibility of more likely frozen precip?

For the coast there is at 700 for anything frozen. That's what this was in response to haha sorry for the confusion.

I am sorry so a warm nose is a bad thing to get frozen precip right? Or is it a good thing? Sorry for the questions, the upper dynamics are still somewhat hard for me to understand thats why ur a met and im not lol

Can we digress regarding frozen precip on the coast?? Lol, as much as WE ALL want this to be what it is SUPPOSE to be in January, it ain't happening. Now what's up with the winds? What did the RGEM show? We should be watching SRM's at this point.

Painted Post is about 70 miles west of Binghamton on I-86.