Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

[Frank_Wx]

I'll be the first to admit the pattern between the 5th and 10th is not what I expected to happen. I did not expect an anomalous positive EPO to develop, nor for the Pacific Jet to amplify as much as models are showing. The SOI is also in LA Nina territory for the first time in awhile. What we're left with is a weak, or possibly non existent system, on the 6th. The threat around the 8th is likely to cut based off the aforementioned reasons too. 

This being said, there remains hope following the cutter we see the pattern turn favorable for a period of time. It may be just a 1 week period, but we'll take it. I'm not saying the Strat and MJO forecasts I presented in my videos will not come to fruition. These events are still on track to take place. What impacts or affects they bring to our pattern remains to be seen, but I can only think they'll be positive based off historical data and where they're expected to occur. 

Besides tomorrow, we'll be below normal through Sunday. We're likely to be above normal next week but the cold should reload behind the cutter. The question then becomes will the MJO bring about western ridging again, and will the Stratospheric warming develop a favorable -AO/-NAO couplet. I'm hopeful the answer is yes. After February 10th.

[Armando Salvadore]

I'll be the first to admit the pattern between the 5th and 10th is not what I expected to happen. I did not expect an anomalous positive EPO to develop, nor for the Pacific Jet to amplify as much as models are showing. The SOI is also in LA Nina territory for the first time in awhile. What we're left with is a weak, or possibly non existent system, on the 6th. The threat around the 8th is likely to cut based off the aforementioned reasons too. 

This being said, there remains hope following the cutter we see the pattern turn favorable for a period of time. It may be just a 1 week period, but we'll take it. I'm not saying the Strat and MJO forecasts I presented in my videos will not come to fruition. These events are still on track to take place. What impacts or affects they bring to our pattern remains to be seen, but I can only think they'll be positive based off historical data and where they're expected to occur. 

Besides tomorrow, we'll be below normal through Sunday. We're likely to be above normal next week but the cold should reload behind the cutter. The question then becomes will the MJO bring about western ridging again, and will the Stratospheric warming develop a favorable -AO/-NAO couplet. I'm hopeful the answer is yes. After February 10th.

Yep agreed on all facets, don't beat yourself up. Don't think many saw it coming, i sure didn't see an erupt +EPO form as such. Now with an undercutting pacific jet extension, there goes any chance of a western ridge. I also should've seen the state of the MJO since its composites for N.A. and its transition into the MC was not favorable for any winter events for the EC. However, i did analyze some guidance earlier and noticed models match the phase 7/8 composite between the 11th-15th, so not all is lost. That cutter, is what is likely to help shift the rossby wave train stationed over Greenland, and by doing so, we probably will have our best shot of the season. As for post mid month, gee, i'd rather not take a stab at it just because of the volatility that this months presents and what occurs with the SPV.

[nutleyblizzard]

Interesting model run of this mornings 6z GFS. The feb.8-9 storm is now a coastal instead of a cutter. Much colder/snowier result. Either the GFS is having issues with the MJO or its just a burp run. Frank any thoughts? Edit: Last nights EURO has trended towards a coastal as well.

[Guest]

I think that the original 8-9th system still cuts with the coastal being a new low.

[nutleyblizzard]

I think that the original 8-9th system still cuts with the coastal being a new low.

Yep. That trailing low looks like a new feature. The EURO shows it too.

[sroc4]

Guys nothing is over until its over. Keep monitoring the H5 progression to see if it's possible. It wouldn't be the first time a winter storm developed along a front in the wake of a strong cutter that potentially acts as a temporary block if there is a s/w digging into the conus. Anything is possible. I prob won't go into depth analyzing that however until we are entering the weekend.

[Frank_Wx]

Madonne, check out the blocking that develops on the GEFS around the 10th. Nice +PNA too.



By the 15th, the GEFS ridge bridge the NAO/PNA.



The EPS also take the NAO negative by the 8th or so.



It's quite possible the cutter changes our pattern for the better, but let's see how things look after this weekend.

[Isotherm]

While it would be ideal to propagate upward and split through 10hpa, it isn't really necessary insofar as the induction of tropospheric blocking (primary difference would probably be a longer duration block if it splits throughout the column). Since this is a wave 2 upwelling event, positive changes at the surface are more likely to occur than waiting patiently for a typical downwelling event. This is the first time I have actually liked how the EPS look in the LR. The NAO is too far NE initially, but once it retrogrades slightly further west, the trough will be in the Northeast, regardless of the positive EPO. The PNA will improve concurrently due to tropical forcing aid. I would also target the 15th to 20th general period for something interesting. Overall, I still like what I see down the road

[billg315]

This would certainly be good news. My only concern is that this pattern shift seems to be getting pushed back regularly. And the later we get, with growing day length and stronger sun, the less cold air I would expect to get even from a favorable pattern. That said, this is more of a concern come mid-March than in February anyway. This is still prime-time for cold and snow, so if we can go to a positive PNA and an eastern trough set-up by mid-February I think we'll still be in good shape.

[sroc4]

I understand why people are throwing in the towel, but you really should hold off in doing so.

[algae888]

I understand why people are throwing in the towel, but you really should hold off in doing so.  

Scott I totally agree. whether we get snow on Sunday what this system will almost certainly do is bring a piece of the polar vortex down into Southeast Canada as it intensifies in the maritimes. This could set up an interesting scenario with the wave to follow. At this time I'd be leaning against a big wound up cutter in the mid part of the country. I would expect the wave coming on Shore in the Pacific after the February 6th storm to weaken as it heads East. Models have consistently shown these woundup Cutters this year that never seemed to materialize

[Guest]

Crap..... It took just one day to get Frank to show some optimism again, even using the phrase MADONNE!

I'm going to wait this thread out on the sidelines thank you very much.

[Frank_Wx]

Crap..... It took just one day to get Frank to show some optimism again, even using the phrase MADONNE!

I'm going to wait this thread out on the sidelines thank you very much.

My pessimism stemmed from the failed storm attempt on Sunday. But the 8th on today's model runs isn't all that warm. SCI stayed at 5% this morning. Will look at things closer again later on.

[nutleyblizzard]

Crap..... It took just one day to get Frank to show some optimism again, even using the phrase MADONNE!

I'm going to wait this thread out on the sidelines thank you very much.

My pessimism stemmed from the failed storm attempt on Sunday. But the 8th on today's model runs isn't all that warm. SCI stayed at 5% this morning. Will look at things closer again later on.

Frank why do you think the storm on the 8th is trending colder? The H5 levels are changing which is causing the storm to organize further south and east. One of the changes I've noticed is a much colder regime in Canada infiltrating the U.S. Could it be the models are having issues with the MJO?

[sroc4]

Crap..... It took just one day to get Frank to show some optimism again, even using the phrase MADONNE!

I'm going to wait this thread out on the sidelines thank you very much.

My pessimism stemmed from the failed storm attempt on Sunday. But the 8th on today's model runs isn't all that warm. SCI stayed at 5% this morning. Will look at things closer again later on.

Frank why do you think the storm on the 8th is trending colder? The H5 levels are changing which is causing the storm to organize further south and east. One of the changes I've noticed is a much colder regime in Canada infiltrating the U.S. Could it be the models are having issues with the MJO?

Nuts models have trouble all year with the MJO and its influences on the overall pattern.

[Isotherm]

Ecmwf and GFS are concurring on a coherent p8 MJO propagation post D10. Will be interesting to monitor constructive interference with ongoing precursor. I am becoming more confident that a negative NAM period will occur (NAO too) regardless of whether we destroy the upper stratospheric vorticies, though obviously ideal. W 1/W2 follow up are typically effective.

[Frank_Wx]

Ecmwf and GFS are concurring on a coherent p8 MJO propagation post D10. Will be interesting to monitor constructive interference with ongoing precursor. I am becoming more confident that a negative NAM period will occur (NAO too) regardless of whether we destroy the upper stratospheric vorticies, though obviously ideal. W 1/W2 follow up are typically effective.

[Armando Salvadore]

12Z GEFS today = carbon copy of what PHASE 8 COMPOSITE LOOKS LIKE...

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Tom, you've been all over the latter half of Feb, great stuff! Think we're beginning to see that NAM alteration on the ensembles in the LR. We're not leaving this month without something producing!

[rb924119]

A lot, and I mean A LOT of heavy hitting individual Euro Ensemble members by day 15 lol like, the things dreams are made of ahaha many of the ones I'm referencing are roidzillas verbatim, without ratios or anything else. If "ifs" and "buts" were candies and nuts, we all would have had a merry(ier) Christmas lmfao

[jmanley32]

A lot, and I mean A LOT of heavy hitting individual Euro Ensemble members by day 15 lol like, the things dreams are made of ahaha many of the ones I'm referencing are roidzillas verbatim, without ratios or anything else. If "ifs" and "buts" were candies and nuts, we all would have had a merry(ier) Christmas lmfao

wow ur not kidding but 15 days out ive seen those clown maps plenty of times. we can only hope.

[sroc4]

A lot, and I mean A LOT of heavy hitting individual Euro Ensemble members by day 15 lol like, the things dreams are made of ahaha many of the ones I'm referencing are roidzillas verbatim, without ratios or anything else. If "ifs" and "buts" were candies and nuts, we all would have had a merry(ier) Christmas lmfao

Number 47 please

[jake732]

Can someone post them plz

[Frank_Wx]

The Strat PV split in the lower and middle levels will have huge implications on our weather pattern around February 10th onward. Every single piece of guidance shows blocking and colder than normal weather developing.

30hPa Euro PV split



Euro control and euro means show a fantasy snowstorm around the 12th.

[Frank_Wx]

An MJO in phase 8 = cold back over the east after February 10th.

[Frank_Wx]

GFS shows overrunning accumulating snow for the 8th before changing to rain



The 8th is not yet a done deal.

[sroc4]

Definite CAD signature there. Should be interesting to monitor

[Isotherm]

12Z GEFS today = carbon copy of what PHASE 8 COMPOSITE LOOKS LIKE...

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Tom, you've been all over the latter half of Feb, great stuff! Think we're beginning to see that NAM alteration on the ensembles in the LR. We're not leaving this month without something producing!

Thanks man. Hopefully it continues evolving as expected.

Even if we were waiting patiently for a typical downwelling event, the integral part of the whole process is resultant tropospheric conditions. The fact that we severely perturb the troposphere w/ upwelling wave activity following an upper vortex weakening is a fairly good place to be.

Recall 2010-11 is an example I was just thinking of w/ a very perturbed trop/lower strat but no SSW / near normal zonal winds up at 10hpa. Sometimes one doesn't need a full collapse in the upper realms.

Should be enlightening at the very least.

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