Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

[rb924119]

As promised:

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0Byod2Sk27yNYdlpabi13SldOSkU

Enjoy!!! Again, if you have any questions or comments, FEEL FREE to ask!!

[Guest]

We need some of this..............hopefully soon! Make sure you play it loud

https://youtu.be/WLyiHHEHylw

[skinsfan1177]

As promised:

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0Byod2Sk27yNYdlpabi13SldOSkU

Enjoy!!! Again, if you have any questions or comments, FEEL FREE to ask!!

Great video rb easy to understand and let's us now where we are going

[Guest]

A question about the SE ridge: I know you said that cold air usually wins out over warm this time of year, but isn't it still a still a sort of high risk/high reward situation; i.e. not enough ridge and there's no phase, but too much ridge and the air gets too warm? Or did I misunderstand something?

[Frank_Wx]

If the polar energy is strong enough, it can lift heights along the EC on its own which gives path for the southern energy to come up the coast. It depends on the set-up.

[Guest]

In other words, we track. I'm good with that.

[rb924119]

Thanks, Skins! And Aresian, in my opinion, kind of. Even if there isn't a large enough southeastern ridge to allow the interaction of energy, it should still allow for frozen precipitation because it will still be a relatively fresh cold airmass ahead of it, BUT the overall amount of precipitation that falls won't be as large. Granted, there could be a changeover, but I'm not worried about those details yet, and for you, it seems unlikely at this point anyway aha

[rb924119]

If the polar energy is strong enough, it can lift heights along the EC on its own which gives path for the southern energy to come up the coast. It depends on the set-up.

This is a great point too, and one I didn't even think of to be honest aha

[Frank_Wx]

Pretty significant difference between the 12z and 18z GFS valid 18z Sunday with the STJ energy. Notice how much flatter (zonal) the flow is compared to 12z where it was meridional. Without a strong southern energy, it will be difficult to achieve significant snow accumulations. Keep in mind the STJ energy is not modeled to enter the CONUS until Saturday. It's still way out in the Pacific where sampling is poor.

12z:



18z:

[Guest]

Thanks, Skins! And Aresian, in my opinion, kind of. Even if there isn't a large enough southeastern ridge to allow the interaction of energy, it should still allow for frozen precipitation because it will still be a relatively fresh cold airmass ahead of it, BUT the overall amount of precipitation that falls won't be as large. Granted, there could be a changeover, but I'm not worried about those details yet, and for you, it seems unlikely at this point anyway aha

For me, the B in Miller B stands for "Bane of My Existence".

[Fededle22]

This is going to be a long week of tracking! I am definitely hoping for snow but would prefer it now impacting my super bowl party and the safety of my guests getting home. Is it safe to say that all we want at this point is a strong storm indicator and not location or precip type?

[Frank_Wx]

In my opinion this is not a bad 500mb set-up for Sunday. We need to see better amplification in the flow in future model runs. Whether that means a better western ridge to cut off the zonal flow in the PAC NW, or a sharper trough over the east. Most likely you're not getting one without the other, unless the STJ energy is strong enough. That's our best bet.

[Frank_Wx]

This is going to be a long week of tracking! I am definitely hoping for snow but would prefer it now impacting my super bowl party and the safety of my guests getting home. Is it safe to say that all we want at this point is a strong storm indicator and not location or precip type?

Correct. Once we determine whether or not there will even be a storm, then we'll focus on precipitation type and timing.

[Math23x7]

Say what you want about the ECMWF OP, it has been consistent.  Cutter looming next week...

1/31 0Z ECMWF OP hr 192:

[skinsfan1177]

Horrible model runs overnight unless you like 55 and rain .

[nutleyblizzard]

Horrible model runs overnight unless you like 55 and rain .

Yep. I was just going to post this myself. I'm hoping the models are having trouble with the impending pattern shift. The models were telling us yesterday of a total pv split. It doesn't make sense. I would love to hear Frank or RB's take on this.

[skinsfan1177]

Horrible model runs overnight unless you like 55 and rain .

Yep. I was just going to post this myself. I'm hoping the models are having trouble with the impending pattern shift. The models were telling us yesterday of a total pv split. It doesn't make sense. I would love to hear Frank or RB's take on this.

Its possible they are struggling with the mjo or the Euro is schooling them. Hopefully someone with better knowledge can explain.

[Frank_Wx]

I do not have much time today. Will hopefully find time tonight. But look at this anomalous +EPO (trough over Alaska) on latest guidance. That is NOT ideal. The blocking that develops in the Arctic pushes a piece of the PV over Alaska. Go figure, blocking develop but it actually worsens the PAC. I'll look closer later tonight.

[sroc4]

Horrible model runs overnight unless you like 55 and rain .

Yep. I was just going to post this myself. I'm hoping the models are having trouble with the impending pattern shift. The models were telling us yesterday of a total pv split. It doesn't make sense. I would love to hear Frank or RB's take on this.

Its possible they are struggling with the mjo or the Euro is schooling them. Hopefully someone with better knowledge can explain.

Yes and yes on both points Skins. Write up coming

[amugs]

^^ UGGGHH - we cant get things to work out here.
We actually have a nice -NAO and we cant the pac to cooperate - one of these days Alice!!
-WPO actually gets split there which hurts as well Frank.
===ZONAL
-EPO regresses west over to Russia basically bridging with the Scandinavian block over the top be to far North and the + EPO blocks the cross polar flow on here.
We'll see

[Guest]

Other than not clicking on it, I wish there was a way to block the long range thread from view when I visit the forum.  It is unquestionably the most frustrating and maddening thread in this entire place.  The amount of excitement and positivity and great storm threats and major pattern changes which never seem to materialize is incredible.  

Over the past few years I've stated "unscientifically" and probably not too eloquently that we pretty much know how our winter is going to be by late December without even looking at data.    If storms are cutting and the cold air is transient by then that is the way the rest of the winter will go.  Almost like a vacuum?  The atmosphere and therefore storm track keeps repeating itself following the previous storms etc; etc;  Last year was a perfect example and so far so is this one.

[sroc4]

New thread for the 6th potential. Keep maps and model discussion for that system only over there.

[Isotherm]

Scott, Armando ans others,

I am still monitoring the 15th+ period for concurrent w2 / MJO p8 forcing on the vortex. I was saying this elsewhere, but trend worse in storms for the next 10 days isn't surprising. The initial displacement is ineffective insofar as impacts. The question was always what transpires subsequently. The trop based w2 development is legit, I am just conflicted about the extent to which it propagates upward through rhe strat. The vortex will be weaker which certainly helps. And the MJO cooperation will aid WAF. Of course the maintenance of base pattern is still a possibility on the table, but again, the period to monitor to me is really mid month onward for changes.


In sum, nothing has changed much as far as the data. Relying on the strat alone to save winter would typically be playing w fire, but the methos of attack (trop based) coupled with tropical forcing and weakened vortex makes this one more intriguing.

[Armando Salvadore]

Thanks Tom, i hear what you're saying. Ecmwf not as impressed as it was before for a major reversal at 60*N/ 10mb, however, as you've stated they've not picked up on the W2 forcing that'll subsequently follow the MJO coherent wave into P 7-8. It's vulnerable in the meantime, so i wonder what can upwell in the future and to what extent. The lower part of the strat verbatim the 0z Euro did show a split in the 10 day. Certainly should be enough planetary wave driving in the future. Better hope we can cash in on the phase 8 or else we may enter right into Spring because the wildcard really is what happens with the SPV.

[Frank_Wx]

The potential storm on the 8th has trended to a cutter. As mentioned in the February 6th storm thread, anomalous low heights will overtake the EPO domain which keeps a zonal flow.

There's no way to sugar coat this. Although the pattern did change on the 27th of January as expected, and it'll be normal to below the rest of this week (except tomorrow), it's not the pattern change I suspected. My videos clearly pointed to a colder than normal pattern without any warm days mixed in. Now...it's possible after the cutter on the 8th the cold reloads and high latitude blocking becomes more favorable. This gives us another window to see a snowstorm between the 10th and 15th. But there's many factors I have to look over again before committing to that. Especially the Stratosphere and MJO wave.

A disappointing turn of events to say the least.

[Frank_Wx]

I'll be the first to admit the pattern between the 5th and 10th is not what I expected to happen. I did not expect an anomalous positive EPO to develop, nor for the Pacific Jet to amplify as much as models are showing. The SOI is also in LA Nina territory for the first time in awhile. What we're left with is a weak, or possibly non existent system, on the 6th. The threat around the 8th is likely to cut based off the aforementioned reasons too. 

This being said, there remains hope following the cutter we see the pattern turn favorable for a period of time. It may be just a 1 week period, but we'll take it. I'm not saying the Strat and MJO forecasts I presented in my videos will not come to fruition. These events are still on track to take place. What impacts or affects they bring to our pattern remains to be seen, but I can only think they'll be positive based off historical data and where they're expected to occur. 

Besides tomorrow, we'll be below normal through Sunday. We're likely to be above normal next week but the cold should reload behind the cutter. The question then becomes will the MJO bring about western ridging again, and will the Stratospheric warming develop a favorable -AO/-NAO couplet. I'm hopeful the answer is yes. After February 10th.

[Armando Salvadore]

I'll be the first to admit the pattern between the 5th and 10th is not what I expected to happen. I did not expect an anomalous positive EPO to develop, nor for the Pacific Jet to amplify as much as models are showing. The SOI is also in LA Nina territory for the first time in awhile. What we're left with is a weak, or possibly non existent system, on the 6th. The threat around the 8th is likely to cut based off the aforementioned reasons too. 

This being said, there remains hope following the cutter we see the pattern turn favorable for a period of time. It may be just a 1 week period, but we'll take it. I'm not saying the Strat and MJO forecasts I presented in my videos will not come to fruition. These events are still on track to take place. What impacts or affects they bring to our pattern remains to be seen, but I can only think they'll be positive based off historical data and where they're expected to occur. 

Besides tomorrow, we'll be below normal through Sunday. We're likely to be above normal next week but the cold should reload behind the cutter. The question then becomes will the MJO bring about western ridging again, and will the Stratospheric warming develop a favorable -AO/-NAO couplet. I'm hopeful the answer is yes. After February 10th.

Yep agreed on all facets, don't beat yourself up. Don't think many saw it coming, i sure didn't see an erupt +EPO form as such. Now with an undercutting pacific jet extension, there goes any chance of a western ridge. I also should've seen the state of the MJO since its composites for N.A. and its transition into the MC was not favorable for any winter events for the EC. However, i did analyze some guidance earlier and noticed models match the phase 7/8 composite between the 11th-15th, so not all is lost. That cutter, is what is likely to help shift the rossby wave train stationed over Greenland, and by doing so, we probably will have our best shot of the season. As for post mid month, gee, i'd rather not take a stab at it just because of the volatility that this months presents and what occurs with the SPV.

[Sponsored content]