Re: February 2017 Observations & Discussions

by **Vinnydula** Sat Feb 25, 2017 3:25 pm

I never seen clouds move north west

by **rb924119** Sat Feb 25, 2017 3:33 pm

I'm just going to put this here ladies and gents:

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0Byod2Sk27yNYMWJFWFNuTFJ3dk0

Just a video presenting a case study that I did this morning regarding the anomalous nature of this February in a historical context. I tried to keep it as objective as possible, and leave any "arguments" out of it, but there was a little bit of a stance inferred I guess. At any rate, I wasn't quite expecting the results I got, mainly, the distribution of anomalously warm Februaries. I also did include analysis of the cold side of things as well, but felt no need to include them in the discussion because they had little bearing on the topic at hand. However, those results DO show conclusive evidence that statistically significant colder Februaries and winters did occur largely prior to 1980, and if you would like I can post them too to further discussion. For reference, please also look at the closest analog that I was able to dig up (so far) for this season (December-January) compared to this season below:

February 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 11 Screen10

February 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 11 Screen10

I did not go into any analysis regarding the setups of any of these seasons, as that would have required a much longer presentation haha Anyway, I hope you enjoy it and at least find it as partially interesting as I did!!

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Sat Feb 25, 2017 3:34 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
frank 638 wrote:Do u think the storms will survive to the coast
Depends how quick they are to move and if they can hold up over the mountains which they appear to be doing, if its near or after dark less likely, I think coast does see t-storms, severe or not.

Windy as heck here Jman, you'd love it.

by **jmanley32** Sat Feb 25, 2017 3:44 pm

I'm guessing as the front nears the wind is go pick up everywhere. But ur at a higher elevation yes?

by **billg315** Sat Feb 25, 2017 4:13 pm

72* and clouding up here. Breezy as well. Very powerful storms embedded in that line moving through Eastern PA right now. Interesting to see if they survive the trip across the Delaware.

by **jmanley32** Sat Feb 25, 2017 4:25 pm

Yeah purple on accuwx don't see that often the winds really picking up temps dropping fast.

by **frank 638** Sat Feb 25, 2017 4:35 pm

I did notice that to it is getting windy and cooler at least we are tracking thunderstorm

by **frank 638** Sat Feb 25, 2017 4:37 pm

I wonder if our area for NYC and was will install Watches or Warnings go up

by **jmanley32** Sat Feb 25, 2017 5:07 pm

Frank no severe weather nj is lit up with warnings.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Sat Feb 25, 2017 5:07 pm

jmanley32 wrote:I'm guessing as the front nears the wind is go pick up everywhere. But ur at a higher elevation yes?

I'm at 600 feet but the whole town I live in is 500-900 feet elevation, it's not like I live on a mountaintop or anything. It's basically the normal progression in height as you move away from the ocean, LI Sound and the Hudson river.

by **jmanley32** Sat Feb 25, 2017 5:08 pm

frank 638 wrote:I wonder if our area for NYC and was will install Watches or Warnings go up

this go b in and out in next 2 hrs so if anythimg it will b last minute warnings too late for watches.

by **jmanley32** Sat Feb 25, 2017 5:08 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:I'm guessing as the front nears the wind is go pick up everywhere. But ur at a higher elevation yes?

I'm at 600 feet but the whole town I live in is 500-900 feet elevation, it's not like I live on a mountaintop or anything. It's basically the normal progression in height as you move away from the ocean, LI Sound and the Hudson river.

ur under a warning is it look bad there?

by **rb924119** Sat Feb 25, 2017 5:15 pm

Just spoke to my parents in NE PA and they were tornado warned.......only things worth noting were pea-sized hail and continuous lightning lol hardly any wind ahaha

by **rb924119** Sat Feb 25, 2017 5:18 pm

It's currently 39 in Rome, NY and 66 in Albany lol quite a front aha

by **1190ftalt** Sat Feb 25, 2017 5:25 pm

Thunder and lightning very strong winds and rain and hail just crashed thru Stillwater at 1100 ft alt, NO POWER !

by **rb924119** Sat Feb 25, 2017 5:26 pm

Apparently, according to spotter reports hail of 1-1.75" in parts of Lackawanna and Luzerne counties in Pa, which are near Scranton. Idk how much I believe it, but those are reports. Also, apparently some wind damage there from earlier this afternoon as well with spotty roof damage reports.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Sat Feb 25, 2017 5:29 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:I'm guessing as the front nears the wind is go pick up everywhere. But ur at a higher elevation yes?

I'm at 600 feet but the whole town I live in is 500-900 feet elevation, it's not like I live on a mountaintop or anything. It's basically the normal progression in height as you move away from the ocean, LI Sound and the Hudson river.
ur under a warning is it look bad there?

It looks worse than it is right now. Dry dark sky's but temperature still above 60 and winds not as strong as they've been all day. We have a severe thunderstorm warning so I guess we'll see.
In February no less we have reached the absurd level.

by **billg315** Sat Feb 25, 2017 5:52 pm

Real good thunderstorm going here. Frequent lightning and thunder with heavy rain and wind gusts. Nice loud booms of thunder every now and then.

by **billg315** Sat Feb 25, 2017 5:56 pm

On a related note as it pours outside with lots of thunder and lightning: I do love the weather app on my iPhone during thunderstorms. The lightning flashing, and occasional bolts in the background is pretty realistic, and almost as fun to watch as the real thing out my window. Lol.

by **billg315** Sat Feb 25, 2017 5:57 pm

Temperature has dropped from 71* to 58* in less than an hour.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Sat Feb 25, 2017 5:59 pm

Pouring here. Dinner reservations at 6:30. Poor timing.

Down to 54

by **rb924119** Sat Feb 25, 2017 6:31 pm

And now my parents in NE PA are snowing ahahaha

by **skinsfan1177** Sat Feb 25, 2017 6:33 pm

Lightening and thunder hear so much for the marine layer

by **weatherwatchermom** Sat Feb 25, 2017 6:37 pm

a lightning show right now and heavy rain... affraid

by **skinsfan1177** Sat Feb 25, 2017 6:38 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:a lightning show right now and heavy rain...

Same here crazy in february

by **frank 638** Sat Feb 25, 2017 6:44 pm

Mod rain now Temp are dropping to fro 61 to 57 *

by **frank 638** Sat Feb 25, 2017 6:49 pm

Maddone mia its coming down

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