NJ Strong Weather Forum


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NJ Strong Weather Forum
NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm

+51
bloc1357
nujerzeedevil
shabsies
GreyBeard
dad4twoboys
jimv45
2004blackwrx
Vinnydula
Dunnzoo
Dtone
dsix85
SNOW MAN
HEATMISER
bobjohnsonforthehall
devsman
Taffy
lglickman1
sroc4
Scullybutcher
CPcantmeasuresnow
SENJsnowman
dkodgis
weatherwatchermom
docstox12
gigs68
SoulSingMG
Math23x7
hyde345
aiannone
PayneEdelman
emokid51783
CyphaPSU
rb924119
algae888
skinsfan1177
jake732
Joe Snow
billg315
Armando Salvadore
jmanley32
nutleyblizzard
larryrock72
amugs
Mac003
frank 638
Radz
mikeypizano
RJB8525
Grselig
oldtimer
Frank_Wx
55 posters

Page 6 of 23 Previous  1 ... 5, 6, 7 ... 14 ... 23  Next

Go down

February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm - Page 6 Empty Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm

Post by docstox12 Wed Feb 08, 2017 7:10 am

@billg315 wrote:38* and Partly Cloudy, headed toward the upper 50s this afternoon and forecast to be back into the mid 40s by the weekend. Who would think that's the set-up for nearly a foot of snow later tonight and tomorrow. Haha. This shows a couple things: 1.) If the right storm hits at the right time, you can get a snowstorm even in the midst or on the edges of a relatively warm pattern. And 2.) sometimes the energy needed for a big snowstorm can come from a system bringing a dramatic change in temperature which means sometimes a you need a little warmth to get some snow.

Yes, billg, and that is why I had a 50% confidence level last week when some here were ready to throw in the towel or say temps were going into the 70's in March.You have 4 months of snow possibility in these parts, Dec through March, and I have seen EVERYTHING watching since 1960.Things can change in the blink of an eye such as with this coming storm.NWS map looks good, heavy snow far into Pennsylvania and to south NJ, indications of an area wide storm.Still not set in stone but at this juncture, looking pretty good.Nowcast soon and the radar around 3 or 4 AM will tell the tale.
docstox12
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 7254
Reputation : 215
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 70
Location : Monroe NY

Back to top Go down

February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm - Page 6 Empty Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm

Post by Radz Wed Feb 08, 2017 7:23 am

Amy Freeze 5-10 area wide but added 12 over LI and Ct east
Radz
Radz
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 928
Reputation : 17
Join date : 2013-01-12
Location : Cortlandt Manor NY

Back to top Go down

February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm - Page 6 Empty Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm

Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Feb 08, 2017 7:24 am

Para Nam was amazing
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4442
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 43
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm - Page 6 Empty Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm

Post by amugs Wed Feb 08, 2017 7:34 am

RGEM SNOW RATES for NYC/LI - WOW - 2-4" rates incredible!!

February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm - Page 6 Rgem_ensemble_precipitation_meteogram_knyc.thumb.jpg.88de72a20658f6b977859aa7ff1f64b9

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12437
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm - Page 6 Empty Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 08, 2017 8:02 am

Today's 12z runs should seal the deal of where the highest snowfall amounts will fall. At this time, I am thinking eastern NJ, NYC, and LI are in line for a possible Godzilla. With banding, and all the dynamics involved, I can see them reaching the 12" plateau and even passing it. I still think a solid 7 to 11" of snow is likely for those N&W. We'll see what guidance says later on. At the end of the day, a widespread snow event is coming and we should all be thrilled.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20073
Reputation : 313
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm - Page 6 Empty Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm

Post by oldtimer Wed Feb 08, 2017 8:06 am

Thanks Frank I am thrilled for all on this great forum !! : )

oldtimer
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1098
Reputation : 14
Join date : 2013-01-16
Age : 75
Location : Port Jefferson Station Suffolk County

Back to top Go down

February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm - Page 6 Empty Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm

Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Feb 08, 2017 8:13 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Today's 12z runs should seal the deal of where the highest snowfall amounts will fall. At this time, I am thinking eastern NJ, NYC, and LI are in line for a possible Godzilla. With banding, and all the dynamics involved, I can see them reaching the 12" plateau and even passing it. I still think a solid 7 to 11" of snow is likely for those N&W. We'll see what guidance says later on. At the end of the day, a widespread snow event is coming and we should all be thrilled.



Frank I am not greedy...just happy to have snow!!

Have a great day!! Good Luck to everyone!! and please no shovel buying today!!!!!
weatherwatchermom
weatherwatchermom
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 3026
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 57
Location : Hazlet Township

Back to top Go down

February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm - Page 6 Empty Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm

Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Feb 08, 2017 8:14 am

@weatherwatchermom wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Today's 12z runs should seal the deal of where the highest snowfall amounts will fall. At this time, I am thinking eastern NJ, NYC, and LI are in line for a possible Godzilla. With banding, and all the dynamics involved, I can see them reaching the 12" plateau and even passing it. I still think a solid 7 to 11" of snow is likely for those N&W. We'll see what guidance says later on. At the end of the day, a widespread snow event is coming and we should all be thrilled.



Frank I am not greedy...just happy to have snow!!

Have a great day!!


Same here Joanne we are looking good for this storm.
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4442
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 43
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm - Page 6 Empty Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm

Post by Grselig Wed Feb 08, 2017 8:18 am

If I get 10 I will be thrilled.  Even then, all goes as predicted, our first true winter storm.   Winter is saved!!!!   Still a little fearful a model showed a SE trend.  Never happy till the deal is done.

Good move all, throwing in the towel last week.  Had to make a difference.
Grselig
Grselig
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1332
Reputation : 137
Join date : 2013-03-04
Age : 51
Location : Wayne NJ

Back to top Go down

February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm - Page 6 Empty Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm

Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Feb 08, 2017 8:22 am

@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@weatherwatchermom wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Today's 12z runs should seal the deal of where the highest snowfall amounts will fall. At this time, I am thinking eastern NJ, NYC, and LI are in line for a possible Godzilla. With banding, and all the dynamics involved, I can see them reaching the 12" plateau and even passing it. I still think a solid 7 to 11" of snow is likely for those N&W. We'll see what guidance says later on. At the end of the day, a widespread snow event is coming and we should all be thrilled.



Frank I am not greedy...just happy to have snow!!

Have a great day!!


Same here Joanne we are looking good for this storm.

so excited...love the anticipation of a storm!!
weatherwatchermom
weatherwatchermom
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 3026
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 57
Location : Hazlet Township

Back to top Go down

February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm - Page 6 Empty Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 08, 2017 8:23 am

New SREFS this morning...hold serve. Everyone wins.

February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm - Page 6 SREFNE24Precip09042.thumb.gif.b05eab372e849602e9b188762dc41c36

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20073
Reputation : 313
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm - Page 6 Empty Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm

Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 08, 2017 8:24 am

The Nam para 3km 4km rgem and sref all show near or over a foot for nyc and surround areas. I'm woken a happy guy!
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 18384
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm - Page 6 Empty Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm

Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Feb 08, 2017 8:26 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:New SREFS this morning...hold serve. Everyone wins.

February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm - Page 6 SREFNE24Precip09042.thumb.gif.b05eab372e849602e9b188762dc41c36

lol deleted my question about sref time...I was off an hour..we must have posted at the same time...looking good..so that means nam is next at 9?
weatherwatchermom
weatherwatchermom
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 3026
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 57
Location : Hazlet Township

Back to top Go down

February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm - Page 6 Empty Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm

Post by Grselig Wed Feb 08, 2017 8:29 am

Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy
Grselig
Grselig
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1332
Reputation : 137
Join date : 2013-03-04
Age : 51
Location : Wayne NJ

Back to top Go down

February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm - Page 6 Empty Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm

Post by aiannone Wed Feb 08, 2017 8:29 am

EVEN BGM WINS ON THE SREF LOL!
aiannone
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4267
Reputation : 89
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm - Page 6 Empty Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm

Post by aiannone Wed Feb 08, 2017 8:30 am

SREF Mean for BGM is 13.0"
aiannone
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4267
Reputation : 89
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm - Page 6 Empty Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm

Post by rb924119 Wed Feb 08, 2017 8:32 am

They did trend a bit drier, mainly southwest of us, which in my opinion was expected. The question becomes how much drier will they continue to become? My honest worry is that we all end up in the darker blue, which is an average of .5-.75" liquid equivalent, versus where we are now at .75-1". Given the timeframe in which this system is occurring, it would only make sense that we see less QPF actually verify. I have to check how the PWAT anomalies ended up overnight, and see if there were any changes.....

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 5553
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

Back to top Go down

February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm - Page 6 Empty Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm

Post by dkodgis Wed Feb 08, 2017 8:34 am

What is the left scale in terms of what units of measurement for the SREF?
dkodgis
dkodgis
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1575
Reputation : 98
Join date : 2013-12-29

Back to top Go down

February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm - Page 6 Empty Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm

Post by SENJsnowman Wed Feb 08, 2017 8:39 am

Even TWC is on board, showing widespread purple for tomorrow. The last time they had Ocean county lit up in purple BEFORE a storm: the Jan 2015 mega-bust. Did I really just mention that?  Rolling Eyes

SENJsnowman

Posts : 767
Reputation : 58
Join date : 2017-01-06
Age : 48
Location : Bayville, NJ

Back to top Go down

February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm - Page 6 Empty Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm

Post by Guest Wed Feb 08, 2017 8:42 am

@amugs wrote:RGEM SNOW RATES for NYC/LI - WOW - 2-4" rates incredible!!

February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm - Page 6 Rgem_ensemble_precipitation_meteogram_knyc.thumb.jpg.88de72a20658f6b977859aa7ff1f64b9

Wow that would be cool to see. 2-4" per hour rates. I wish I lived on LI so I could experience those...... Razz Razz Razz Razz Razz lol! lol! party party Thumbs up Thumbs up

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm - Page 6 Empty Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm

Post by docstox12 Wed Feb 08, 2017 8:45 am

syosnow94 wrote:
@amugs wrote:RGEM SNOW RATES for NYC/LI - WOW - 2-4" rates incredible!!

February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm - Page 6 Rgem_ensemble_precipitation_meteogram_knyc.thumb.jpg.88de72a20658f6b977859aa7ff1f64b9

Wow that would be cool to see.  2-4" per hour rates.  I wish I lived on LI so I could experience those...... Razz Razz Razz Razz Razz lol! lol! party party Thumbs up Thumbs up


lol! lol! lol! lol! HILARIOUS Jimmy
docstox12
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 7254
Reputation : 215
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 70
Location : Monroe NY

Back to top Go down

February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm - Page 6 Empty Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 08, 2017 8:51 am

Take the 36 hour HRRR very lightly, but it's very impressive.

Total snow

February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm - Page 6 Acsnw_t3sfc_f34

Check out snowfall rates. 2 to 3 inches an hour

February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm - Page 6 1hsnw_t3sfc_f27

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20073
Reputation : 313
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm - Page 6 Empty Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm

Post by aiannone Wed Feb 08, 2017 8:52 am

I'd take that even here. For you guys, that's awesome!
aiannone
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4267
Reputation : 89
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm - Page 6 Empty Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 08, 2017 8:53 am

12z NAM coming in now.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20073
Reputation : 313
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm - Page 6 Empty Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Wed Feb 08, 2017 8:56 am

question for the experts, which of the short range models do you lean on for best accuracy.

In my limited knowledge, the SREFS always seem a little over done qpf wise and too N and W based. The RGEM always seems the opposite a little S and E based. The NAM on the other hand is the King of this storm so far nailing it before anyone else.

When do the HRRR's come into play. During the storm 2 weeks ago they nailed exactly where the heaviest sleet would be which was right over my area and still covers the ground to this day. I was impressed and don't usually follow that model but it nailed it. Is it usually that reliable or was that just the case of a broken clock being correct twice a day? If they are reliable what is their best time frame and what other short term models are we coming into their good time frame?

Thanks in advance.

Just edited should have said short range not long range


Last edited by CPcantmeasuresnow on Wed Feb 08, 2017 9:02 am; edited 2 times in total
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6662
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 100
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

Back to top Go down

February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm - Page 6 Empty Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 6 of 23 Previous  1 ... 5, 6, 7 ... 14 ... 23  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum