February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm

@billg315 wrote:38* and Partly Cloudy, headed toward the upper 50s this afternoon and forecast to be back into the mid 40s by the weekend. Who would think that's the set-up for nearly a foot of snow later tonight and tomorrow. Haha. This shows a couple things: 1.) If the right storm hits at the right time, you can get a snowstorm even in the midst or on the edges of a relatively warm pattern. And 2.) sometimes the energy needed for a big snowstorm can come from a system bringing a dramatic change in temperature which means sometimes a you need a little warmth to get some snow.

Yes, billg, and that is why I had a 50% confidence level last week when some here were ready to throw in the towel or say temps were going into the 70's in March.You have 4 months of snow possibility in these parts, Dec through March, and I have seen EVERYTHING watching since 1960.Things can change in the blink of an eye such as with this coming storm.NWS map looks good, heavy snow far into Pennsylvania and to south NJ, indications of an area wide storm.Still not set in stone but at this juncture, looking pretty good.Nowcast soon and the radar around 3 or 4 AM will tell the tale.

Amy Freeze 5-10 area wide but added 12 over LI and Ct east

Para Nam was amazing

Today's 12z runs should seal the deal of where the highest snowfall amounts will fall. At this time, I am thinking eastern NJ, NYC, and LI are in line for a possible Godzilla. With banding, and all the dynamics involved, I can see them reaching the 12" plateau and even passing it. I still think a solid 7 to 11" of snow is likely for those N&W. We'll see what guidance says later on. At the end of the day, a widespread snow event is coming and we should all be thrilled.

Thanks Frank I am thrilled for all on this great forum !! : )

@Frank_Wx wrote:Today's 12z runs should seal the deal of where the highest snowfall amounts will fall. At this time, I am thinking eastern NJ, NYC, and LI are in line for a possible Godzilla. With banding, and all the dynamics involved, I can see them reaching the 12" plateau and even passing it. I still think a solid 7 to 11" of snow is likely for those N&W. We'll see what guidance says later on. At the end of the day, a widespread snow event is coming and we should all be thrilled.

Frank I am not greedy...just happy to have snow!!

Have a great day!! Good Luck to everyone!! and please no shovel buying today!!!!!

@weatherwatchermom wrote:

@Frank_Wx wrote:Today's 12z runs should seal the deal of where the highest snowfall amounts will fall. At this time, I am thinking eastern NJ, NYC, and LI are in line for a possible Godzilla. With banding, and all the dynamics involved, I can see them reaching the 12" plateau and even passing it. I still think a solid 7 to 11" of snow is likely for those N&W. We'll see what guidance says later on. At the end of the day, a widespread snow event is coming and we should all be thrilled.

Frank I am not greedy...just happy to have snow!!

Have a great day!!

Same here Joanne we are looking good for this storm.

If I get 10 I will be thrilled.  Even then, all goes as predicted, our first true winter storm.   Winter is saved!!!!   Still a little fearful a model showed a SE trend.  Never happy till the deal is done.

Good move all, throwing in the towel last week.  Had to make a difference.

@skinsfan1177 wrote:

@weatherwatchermom wrote:

@Frank_Wx wrote:Today's 12z runs should seal the deal of where the highest snowfall amounts will fall. At this time, I am thinking eastern NJ, NYC, and LI are in line for a possible Godzilla. With banding, and all the dynamics involved, I can see them reaching the 12" plateau and even passing it. I still think a solid 7 to 11" of snow is likely for those N&W. We'll see what guidance says later on. At the end of the day, a widespread snow event is coming and we should all be thrilled.

Frank I am not greedy...just happy to have snow!!

Have a great day!!

Same here Joanne we are looking good for this storm.

so excited...love the anticipation of a storm!!

New SREFS this morning...hold serve. Everyone wins.

The Nam para 3km 4km rgem and sref all show near or over a foot for nyc and surround areas. I'm woken a happy guy!

@Frank_Wx wrote:New SREFS this morning...hold serve. Everyone wins.

lol deleted my question about sref time...I was off an hour..we must have posted at the same time...looking good..so that means nam is next at 9?

EVEN BGM WINS ON THE SREF LOL!

SREF Mean for BGM is 13.0"

They did trend a bit drier, mainly southwest of us, which in my opinion was expected. The question becomes how much drier will they continue to become? My honest worry is that we all end up in the darker blue, which is an average of .5-.75" liquid equivalent, versus where we are now at .75-1". Given the timeframe in which this system is occurring, it would only make sense that we see less QPF actually verify. I have to check how the PWAT anomalies ended up overnight, and see if there were any changes.....

What is the left scale in terms of what units of measurement for the SREF?

Even TWC is on board, showing widespread purple for tomorrow. The last time they had Ocean county lit up in purple BEFORE a storm: the Jan 2015 mega-bust. Did I really just mention that? 

@amugs wrote:RGEM SNOW RATES for NYC/LI - WOW - 2-4" rates incredible!!

Wow that would be cool to see. 2-4" per hour rates. I wish I lived on LI so I could experience those......

syosnow94 wrote:

@amugs wrote:RGEM SNOW RATES for NYC/LI - WOW - 2-4" rates incredible!!

Wow that would be cool to see.  2-4" per hour rates.  I wish I lived on LI so I could experience those......

HILARIOUS Jimmy

Take the 36 hour HRRR very lightly, but it's very impressive.

Total snow



Check out snowfall rates. 2 to 3 inches an hour

I'd take that even here. For you guys, that's awesome!

12z NAM coming in now.

question for the experts, which of the short range models do you lean on for best accuracy.

In my limited knowledge, the SREFS always seem a little over done qpf wise and too N and W based. The RGEM always seems the opposite a little S and E based. The NAM on the other hand is the King of this storm so far nailing it before anyone else.

When do the HRRR's come into play. During the storm 2 weeks ago they nailed exactly where the heaviest sleet would be which was right over my area and still covers the ground to this day. I was impressed and don't usually follow that model but it nailed it. Is it usually that reliable or was that just the case of a broken clock being correct twice a day? If they are reliable what is their best time frame and what other short term models are we coming into their good time frame?

Thanks in advance.

Just edited should have said short range not long range