BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th

syosnow94 wrote:Us LIers are not too excited about that map, however I know they always do funky things to our totals. They don't recognize LI as a land mass

I don't think we will see the true totals of this beast till we have sr just the dynamics etc
I bet we go b surprised in next 24 to 48 hrs. Hoping anyways.

Frank_Wx wrote:

Math23x7 wrote:So Frank, what would you say is the probability of NYC getting greater than:

6"
12"
18"
24"
30"
36"

Dead on.

Would 36 or above be considered Biblical?

36 would be considered the red sea parting followed by locusts then a jet super bowl victory. Especially if it covers everywhere.

I've come to the conclusion along with Frank and other members on this board that due to the complexity of this system, the GFS with its lower resolution has been chasing any convective blowups which in turn greatly effects the track of the storm. If anybody remembers, the GFS did the same thing for several runs with Juno. It kept showing a much further offshore track by jumping the low to the convection. Apparently the GEFS members are having the same issue as there seems to be no agreement between them. Hopefully the issue will resolve itself with new data being ingested tonight. Until then I'm riding the EURO, EPS and UKMET.

MikeyP. If you want a good storm for once come to LI. We are the capital of snow

syosnow94 wrote:MikeyP. If you want a good storm for once come to LI. We are the capital of snow

Been there a few times, no offense but I don't like the gun laws in NY/NJ so, no thanks.

nutleyblizzard wrote:I've come to the conclusion along with Frank and other members on this board that due to the complexity of this system, the GFS with its lower resolution has been chasing any convective blowups which in turn greatly effects the track of the storm. If anybody remembers, the GFS did the same thing for several runs with Juno. It kept showing a much further offshore track by jumping the low to the convection. Apparently the GEFS members are having the same issue as there seems to be no agreement between them. Hopefully the issue will resolve itself with new data being ingested tonight. Until then I'm riding the EURO, EPS and UKMET.

Nicely put couldn't agree more its a bias of the GFS.

devsman wrote:36 would be considered the red sea parting followed by locusts then a jet super bowl victory. Especially if it covers everywhere.

You had me until the Jets Super Bowl. Now that's just not believable. Heston popping out of his grave as Moses is more likely, sadly.

syosnow94 wrote:MikeyP. If you want a good storm for once come to LI. We are the capital of snow

Thats not how you spell Red Sox Suck

Frank_Wx wrote:

Math23x7 wrote:So Frank, what would you say is the probability of NYC getting greater than:

6"
12"
18"
24"
30"
36"

Dead on.

That does not answer the question

Now you're talking MikeyP. Me and you would get along good. Where are you at? I fish in PA a lot near Hancock

syosnow94 wrote:Now you're talking MikeyP. Me and you would get along good. Where are you at?  I fish in PA a lot near Hancock

I am near AVP (in Wyoming Valley), between Scranton and Wilkes-Barre. If you do texting, I can PM you my number.

Monster close up 18z navgem

The 21Z SREFS came out and it shows quite the hockey stick graph for LGA:

the board has been eerily quiet the past hour....getting ready for the model runs?

I don't have a model yet but I heard someone say I95 and east is all rain...

Wow! That sure stinks! Maybe the Nam isn't in range yet...or maybe its as bad as it looks!

SENJsnowman wrote:Wow! That sure stinks! Maybe the Nam isn't in range yet...or maybe its as bad as it looks!  

The dark blue actually extends up to me, I am surprised by that!

Not a big expert on models here but the fact that the GFS and now possibly the NAM (which has been hot this winter) both being coastal huggers is very disconcerting

mikeypizano wrote:

Oy, watch this end up neing for PA and upstate and its a raging rain noreaster, hopefully the NAM is dead wrong here.

syosnow94 wrote:Not a big expert on models here but the fact that the GFS and now possibly the NAM (which has been hot this winter) both being coastal huggers is very disconcerting

Ya F'ing think?!!

jmanley32 wrote:

mikeypizano wrote:

Oy, watch this end up neing for PA and upstate and its a raging rain noreaster, hopefully the NAM is dead wrong here.

Not me, I hope its right! Maybe I won't get screwed like the blizzard last year did to me!

If we extrapolate that out it may move over the water, but its def really close, the winds sure are insane on that run. I know no one cares about the wind if its rain and honestly if the snow busts the wind will be my least care (I know your all shocked).

Frank_Wx wrote:I decided. I am marrying the NAM. Will propose tonight. Wish me well.

Does the 0z run mean the wedding is off?

mikeypizano wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

mikeypizano wrote:

Oy, watch this end up neing for PA and upstate and its a raging rain noreaster, hopefully the NAM is dead wrong here.

Not me, I hope its right! Maybe I won't get screwed like the blizzard last year did to me!

Yeah this run will def be good for well inland areas, dunno exactly how it would look extrapolated out, maybe a better pro on that can weigh in? Stinks we wont have frank till Sunday. No offense sroc rb etc, you guys are gr8 too.

I am confused nick Gregory was saying this is going to more snow event then rain even to the coast