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BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Mar 10, 2017 1:58 am

850mb winds 64kts plus I only have tt so cannot see the in between time frames but tgat run was a epic u know what.
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Post by SNOW MAN Fri Mar 10, 2017 5:26 am

@SoulSingMG wrote:EURO IS ABOUT TO BLOW US ALL TO SNOWBLIVION!

This made me bust out laughing ! This is GREAT ! lol! lol! lol!

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Mar 10, 2017 6:11 am

Euro ensembles

BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th - Page 3 Eps_snow_m_ma_25.png.4ac4ec40f083a58dc08a965a3006bb9e

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Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Mar 10, 2017 6:14 am

@SoulSingMG wrote:EURO IS ABOUT TO BLOW US ALL TO SNOWBLIVION!
fell asleep early last night just woke up to catch up. Have to say I love your late night shout outs .. lol! lol! now I will continue reading..
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Post by SENJsnowman Fri Mar 10, 2017 6:31 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Euro ensembles

BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th - Page 3 Eps_snow_m_ma_25.png.4ac4ec40f083a58dc08a965a3006bb9e

Given the past few runs, no complaints here. Still need a slight push east. That GFS though... Evil or Very Mad

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Post by sroc4 Fri Mar 10, 2017 6:38 am

Frank great write up!!  Not a lot to add to the discussion this morning except to say we def sit in a decent position right now.  I wouldn't worry too much right now about the GFS hugging the coast, although this is possible.  Its own Ensemble mean is east as is the euro op and its ensemble mean.  GFS Op is the outlier for now.  Avg the differences and we are looking good right now.  

BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th - Page 3 Gfs_ms11
BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th - Page 3 Untitl10
BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th - Page 3 Ecmwf_47
BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th - Page 3 Eps_sl14

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by SENJsnowman Fri Mar 10, 2017 6:49 am

@sroc4 wrote:Frank great write up!!  Not a lot to add to the discussion this morning except to say we def sit in a decent position right now.  I wouldn't worry too much right now about the GFS hugging the coast, although this is possible.  Its own Ensemble mean is east as is the euro op and its ensemble mean.  GFS Op is the outlier for now.  Avg the differences and we are looking good right now.  


Very comforting words for us Coasties! Let's hope...and track!

Frank, that write up was superb...and thank you for including so many fundamental explanations for novices like me...much appreciated!

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Post by nutleyblizzard Fri Mar 10, 2017 6:58 am

EPS is downright impressive. Some the indies get down to the 960's. Once today's event gets out of the way, we will start to get a consensus with track. Sunday's 12z runs should tell the tale. My gut tells me this takes a track just inside the benchmark.
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Post by sroc4 Fri Mar 10, 2017 7:03 am

@nutleyblizzard wrote:EPS is downright impressive. Some the indies get down to the 960's. Once today's event gets out of the way, we will start to get a consensus  with track. Sunday's 12z runs should tell the tale. My gut tells me this takes a track just inside the benchmark.

That's a fair assessment at this point Nutz. Looking at the image I posted above the EPS mean is literally on the BM.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
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Post by SENJsnowman Fri Mar 10, 2017 7:11 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@nutleyblizzard wrote:EPS is downright impressive. Some the indies get down to the 960's. Once today's event gets out of the way, we will start to get a consensus  with track. Sunday's 12z runs should tell the tale. My gut tells me this takes a track just inside the benchmark.

That's a fair assessment at this point Nutz.  Looking at the image I posted above the EPS mean is literally on the BM.  

OK, I did my homework, and now I know exactly what the BM is and what is means generally speaking. Where would I want the track realtive to the BM to get max snowfall and no rain for the Jersey Shore? I figure that the dynamics of each storm make a difference, but typically...on it? Just west? Just east?


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Post by sroc4 Fri Mar 10, 2017 7:19 am

@SENJsnowman wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@nutleyblizzard wrote:EPS is downright impressive. Some the indies get down to the 960's. Once today's event gets out of the way, we will start to get a consensus  with track. Sunday's 12z runs should tell the tale. My gut tells me this takes a track just inside the benchmark.

That's a fair assessment at this point Nutz.  Looking at the image I posted above the EPS mean is literally on the BM.  

OK, I did my homework, and now I know exactly what the BM is and what is means generally speaking. Where would I want the track realtive to the BM to get max snowfall and no rain for the Jersey Shore? I figure that the dynamics of each storm make a difference, but typically...on it? Just west? Just east?


For yuo a track on or just SE of the BM is usually ideal.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Mar 10, 2017 7:20 am

The euro and EPS are pure hotness! I imagine some individual members are measured in feet not inches? And man 990s is go produce high wind we get into 970's or dare say 960s thst could get near hurricane strength possibly. Def go b a long 3 days here. The gfs had me bit worried but it us a outlier right now and it appears euro has a very good handle on where it might end up.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Mar 10, 2017 7:22 am

@SENJsnowman wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Euro ensembles

BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th - Page 3 Eps_snow_m_ma_25.png.4ac4ec40f083a58dc08a965a3006bb9e

Given the past few runs, no complaints here. Still need a slight push east. That GFS though... Evil or Very Mad
that's an incredibly high mean I'd love to see the indies if someone can get a chance to post them.
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Post by billg315 Fri Mar 10, 2017 7:35 am

At this point I wouldn't worry about a run hugging the coast too close, because there may be one just outside the BM at some point as well. The exact track will shift west and east on the next several model runs. Just keep the strength and general setup as it is now and I'll be happy. Exact track won't be clear until Sunday or Monday anyway. That said, the Storm of 1993 did go to a prolonged period of sleet cutting down initially predicted totals so it's possible. But remember, that still gave most people over a foot of snow.
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Post by Guest Fri Mar 10, 2017 7:38 am

I'm curious about something for my area. If I'm looking at the map correctly, 2m temps are forecast to be mid to upper teens. Doesn't that make the snow ratio closer to 20 to 1?

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Post by billg315 Fri Mar 10, 2017 7:42 am

That's an interesting thing about this. March snows are usually with temps around or above 32 so wet, and closer to 10:1. This may be a colder drier snow, so I would think ratios may be higher. Except right along the coast where warmer air gets drawn in.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Mar 10, 2017 7:45 am

UKIE and EURO are the best models inside 120 hours and they both show a Roidzilla at the moment. So...

BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th - Page 3 Cor_day5_HGT_P500_G2NHX.thumb.png.f198e02a5d9f155511bf993b84041e39

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Post by SNOW MAN Fri Mar 10, 2017 7:51 am

I feel like a kid at Christmas waiting to run down the stairs and see what Santa brought. I can hardly stand the anticipation. Come on Tuesday.
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Post by sroc4 Fri Mar 10, 2017 7:54 am

Funny thing about this upcoming potential. I am supposed to fly out on Wed to Savannah Georgia for a golf trip and party for St Patty's day with the boys.

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Post by SNOW MAN Fri Mar 10, 2017 7:56 am

@sroc4 wrote:Funny thing about this upcoming potential.  I am supposed to fly out on Wed to Savannah Georgia for a golf trip and party for St Patty's day with the boys.  

Will you stay or go ?
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Post by sroc4 Fri Mar 10, 2017 7:57 am

@SNOW MAN wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:Funny thing about this upcoming potential.  I am supposed to fly out on Wed to Savannah Georgia for a golf trip and party for St Patty's day with the boys.  

Will you stay or go ?

Well flight is 3:40pm Wednesday.   If I have to drive I'm going!! LOL

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Post by nutleyblizzard Fri Mar 10, 2017 8:09 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:UKIE and EURO are the best models inside 120 hours and they both show a Roidzilla at the moment. So...

BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th - Page 3 Cor_day5_HGT_P500_G2NHX.thumb.png.f198e02a5d9f155511bf993b84041e39
While still a possible scenario, I think the GFS is too far west and will correct east in time. EURO is a little to far east for my liking. Rooting hard for a UKMET track!!!
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Post by mwilli5783 Fri Mar 10, 2017 8:18 am

people at my job (target in westbury l.i)don't think tuesday is gonna be a big deal,i tell them that fridays and sundays storms are like the appitizer to the main course come tuesday....stubborn people i guess

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Mar 10, 2017 8:26 am

@mwilli5783 wrote:people at my job (target in westbury l.i)don't think tuesday is gonna be a big deal,i tell them that fridays and sundays storms are like the appitizer to the main course come tuesday....stubborn people i guess
There is no longer a Sunday storm, that went poof, might have been models sniffing out tuesday.  Which will likely be a big deal, maybe a major deal. People are complacent up here, especially after so many 60 degree days.  Just be prepared for last minute craze i feel bad for you working at target for that.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Mar 10, 2017 8:27 am

Is no one gonna post the Euro operational snow map? Usually someone does.
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