Re: March 14th Godzilla Discussion Part 2

by **jmanley32** Sat Mar 11, 2017 4:46 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:
amugs wrote:Full view

BLOWN AWAY at how early this is issued! I went for a late lunch after that Euro run, left my phone at home for two hours in hopes of good news upon returning... it WORKED! :-D

Jeff smith muself and you along many others im sure are floored NWS pulled trigger so early.

by **rb924119** Sat Mar 11, 2017 4:51 pm

18z GFS further west than 12z through 60, notnthat it means much.

by **Sanchize06** Sat Mar 11, 2017 4:53 pm

GFS is slightly west at hr 66, though it appears it's actually colder

by **rb924119** Sat Mar 11, 2017 4:56 pm

Snowfall totals are pathetic on this run ahaha drier than 12z!!

by **Sanchize06** Sat Mar 11, 2017 4:56 pm

Good track and good temperatures, but not impressive on the precip

by **Sanchize06** Sat Mar 11, 2017 4:57 pm

by **Snow88** Sat Mar 11, 2017 4:59 pm

This has to be CF. The low is in a perfect spot. More precip should have been thrown back further inland.

by **hyde345** Sat Mar 11, 2017 5:02 pm

Snow88 wrote:This has to be CF. The low is in a perfect spot. More precip should have been thrown back further inland.

I agree. That track with those dynamics should have produced more precip.

by **mikeypizano** Sat Mar 11, 2017 5:03 pm

by Guest Sat Mar 11, 2017 5:07 pm

So we're now throwing the NAM, the Euro op and the GFS away? Pretty soon we're going to be down to using the Magic 8-Ball.

by **billg315** Sat Mar 11, 2017 5:08 pm

What is making for a much more relaxing Saturday for me:
1. Not taking any model run seriously right now, just accepting that we're getting some form of storm; and
2. Being completely happy with ANY snow total greater than 8" which would be fun to watch and is all it will take to essentially shut down the state Tuesday.

by **jmanley32** Sat Mar 11, 2017 5:10 pm

GFS had no rain get in coast, was east of last run i think, precip was messed up though, i dunno which if any models we can take seriously right now maybe 00z we may see some more consensus.

by **billg315** Sat Mar 11, 2017 5:11 pm

TheAresian wrote:So we're now throwing the NAM, the Euro op and the GFS away? Pretty soon we're going to be down to using the Magic 8-Ball.

Lol!! I like this. And that may be just as productive. Funny thing is, you have to discount them to a degree because none match up. So most have to be wrong (at least if you're looking for precision). The one thing they agree on is a storm coming up the coast. Which at this point is kinda important.

by **algae888** Sat Mar 11, 2017 5:15 pm

TheAresian wrote:So we're now throwing the NAM, the Euro op and the GFS away? Pretty soon we're going to be down to using the Magic 8-Ball.

No one should be discounting any model at this time. Two things we should look for is model biases and esemble means compared to operationals. So with that said the nam is always too amped up and North past 48 hours the GFS always under underestimates precipitation on its Northwest flank and the EPS is west of the operational. We are in a great spot at the moment and things will get ironed out by tomorrow afternoons runs just have patience.

by **skinsfan1177** Sat Mar 11, 2017 5:16 pm

GFS is still good and great for coast. Stews the west a little. Hearing no CF issues

by **amugs** Sat Mar 11, 2017 5:16 pm

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Mar 11, 2017 5:16 pm

RPM is a Roidzilla

March 14th Godzilla Discussion Part 2 - Page 9 Rpmfun

by Guest Sat Mar 11, 2017 5:17 pm

billg315 wrote:
TheAresian wrote:So we're now throwing the NAM, the Euro op and the GFS away? Pretty soon we're going to be down to using the Magic 8-Ball.

Lol!! I like this. And that may be just as productive. Funny thing is, you have to discount them to a degree because none match up. So most have to be wrong (at least if you're looking for precision). The one thing they agree on is a storm coming up the coast. Which at this point is kinda important.

I agree that it's important and I hope that my last post wasn't taken as complaining about the storm. My area is down for 12-18" so I'm thrilled.

by **Snow88** Sat Mar 11, 2017 5:18 pm

TheAresian wrote:So we're now throwing the NAM, the Euro op and the GFS away? Pretty soon we're going to be down to using the Magic 8-Ball.

Models never do this with storms ? This happens all the time.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Mar 11, 2017 5:18 pm

The GFS was inside the 40/70 BM yet this is the precip shield? Looks way underdone.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Mar 11, 2017 5:18 pm

by **jmanley32** Sat Mar 11, 2017 5:20 pm

amugs wrote:RPM

crap and thats not entire storm is it.

by **jmanley32** Sat Mar 11, 2017 5:22 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:CFI

totally you can clearly see it, so would you say if it corrected may be closer to rpm? looks similar position, are you leaning any closer to roidzilla or not sure yet?

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Mar 11, 2017 5:23 pm

If anything I am not as confident in a Roidzila now than I was this morning. The ridge in the west on latest guidance seems to be slipping east some...

by **skinsfan1177** Sat Mar 11, 2017 5:23 pm

GFS undergoing the western flank precip

by **skinsfan1177** Sat Mar 11, 2017 5:24 pm

Trough looked more positive tilted

by Guest Sat Mar 11, 2017 5:24 pm

amugs wrote:RPM

That's a rather painful alternate possibility.

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