March 14th Godzilla Discussion Part 2

amugs wrote:  4 minutes ago, rossi said:
For who

CTZ007>012-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-120900-
/O.NEW.KOKX.BZ.A.0001.170314T0400Z-170315T0400Z/
Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-
Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-
Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-
Northeastern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-
Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
338 PM EST Sat Mar 11 2017
...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...
The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a Blizzard
Watch, which is in effect from late Monday night through Tuesday
evening.
* Locations...New York City, Long Island, Southern Westchester,
 Southern Fairfield, Southern New Haven, Middlesex, and New
 London counties.
* Hazard Types...Snow, and strong and gusty winds.
* Snow Accumulations...12 to 18 inches.
* Timing...Late Monday night through Tuesday evening.
* Impacts...Hazardous travel and potential for power outages due
 to moderate to heavy snow and gusty winds.
* Winds...Northeast 20 to 30 mph with gusts 40 to 50 mph.
* Temperatures...In the upper 20s.
* Visibilities...One quarter mile or less at times.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Blizzard Watch means there is a potential for falling and/or
blowing snow with strong winds and extremely poor visibilities.
This can lead to whiteout conditions and make travel very
dangerous.
&&
$$

This will expand by tomorrow this time

NWS is a little gutsy I'll say!! But understood since upper dynamics still look great. Cc

jrollins628 wrote:Nam terrible for the coast

don't even look at that trash anymore

jrollins628 wrote:Nam terrible for the coast

Keep in mind some highly capable people are discounting the regular NAM (but not the Para)

I am hanging in there jmanley I am glued to my phone u can't till Mon nite and frank changeing the banner this feels like christmas morning as a kid lol

The nam is over amped bias and in its own camp and gone by Tuesday. Not buying the nam at all.

HOLY conservative

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ001-007>010-012>022-027-PAZ054-055-060>062-070-
071-101>106-120900-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0004.170314T0000Z-170315T0000Z/
New Castle-Cecil-Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-
Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Salem-
Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Cumberland-
Atlantic-Southeastern Burlington-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-
Northampton-Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-
Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Wilmington, Elkton, Newton, Washington,
Morristown, Flemington, Somerville, New Brunswick, Freehold,
Sandy Hook, Trenton, Pennsville, Glassboro, Camden, Cherry Hill,
Moorestown, Mount Holly, Jackson, Millville, Hammonton,
Wharton State Forest, Jim Thorpe, Stroudsburg, Reading,
Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton, Media, Philadelphia, Honey Brook,
Oxford, West Chester, Kennett Square, Collegeville, Pottstown,
Norristown, Lansdale, Chalfont, Perkasie, Morrisville,
and Doylestown
352 PM EST Sat Mar 11 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a Winter
Storm Watch, which is in effect from Monday evening through
Tuesday evening.

* LOCATIONS...Eastern Pennsylvania, all but far southeastern New
Jersey, northern Delaware, and the northern portions of the
Eastern Shore of Maryland.

* HAZARD TYPES...Heavy snow and strong winds.

* ACCUMULATIONS...Potential for storm total snowfall greater than
6 inches. However, there remains uncertainty in exact totals as
a sharp gradient will exist between the heaviest snowfall and
locations where very little snow may occur. Changes to the
forecast track of the storm can result in substantial changes in
the total accumulations.

* TIMING...Snow begins Monday evening from southwest to northeast
across the watch area. Snow will continue on Tuesday with
potential for transition to a wintry mix or rain southeast of
I-95. Any wintry mix or rain may transition back to snow
Tuesday evening before diminishing Tuesday night.

* IMPACTS...Heavy snow may cause significant travel disruptions.

* WINDS...Northeast 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. The
highest winds should occur southeast of the I-295 corridor.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant
snow...sleet...or ice accumulations that may impact travel.
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

Snowfall and ice accumulation forecast maps in addition to
experimental probabilistic snowfall information for the latest
event are available online at www.weather.gov/phi/winter

mikeypizano wrote:

Oy nam is not backing down i hate that.

Here you go peeps look at big black L from the euro OP farthest member rest inside bm

Lets see the para-man snow map i bet its totally diff.

amugs wrote:Here you go peeps look at big black L from the euro OP farthest member rest inside bm

They actually now have a probability map for great than or equal 18 which is 10% for NYC right now and 20% in a few spots

skinsfan1177 wrote:The nam is over amped bias and in its own camp and gone by Tuesday. Not buying the nam at all.

not even 50 cents, ud make money owning it people def use it. lol

Source: National.Weather.Service

3:38pm EST, Sat Mar 11

... WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. * LOCATIONS... NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY, ORANGE, PUTNAM, ROCKLAND, NORTHERN WESTCHESTER, NORTHERN FAIRFIELD, AND NORTHERN NEW HAVEN COUNTIES. * HAZARD TYPES... SNOW. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS... 12 TO 18 INCHES. * TIMING... LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. * IMPACTS... HAZARDOUS TRAVEL AND POTENTIAL FOR POWER OUTAGES. * WINDS... NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH. * TEMPERATURES... IN THE MID 20S. * VISIBILITIES... ONE HALF TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW... SLEET... OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. &&


I'll take it!

Jeff Smith FB post, leaning toward RPM model, Euro outlier East, NAM outlier West... Blockbuster storm, Major-Crippling

jmanley32 wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:The nam is over amped bias and in its own camp and gone by Tuesday. Not buying the nam at all.

not even 50 cents, ud make money owning it people def use it. lol

Yeah I'm not using the regular Nan on this storm sorry jman

Radz wrote:Jeff Smith FB post, leaning toward RPM model, Euro outlier East, NAM outlier West... Blockbuster storm, Major-Crippling

This is what I and other have been saying and Jeff snlmit is a very good met. Dudes and dude ties it's on.
Hires models will kill it starting Sunday morning and tonight. Hi res nam, rpm is great.

amugs wrote:

Radz wrote:Jeff Smith FB post, leaning toward RPM model, Euro outlier East, NAM outlier West... Blockbuster storm, Major-Crippling

This is what I and other have been saying and Jeff snlmit is a very good met. Dudes and dude ties it's on.
Hires models will kill it starting Sunday morning and tonight. Hi res nam, rpm is great.

Agree mugs

skinsfan1177 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:The nam is over amped bias and in its own camp and gone by Tuesday. Not buying the nam at all.

not even 50 cents, ud make money owning it people def use it. lol

Yeah I'm not using the regular Nan on this storm sorry jman

good kick it to the curb and in the gutter lol, anyone got 18z para nam yet? and what was snow totals on rpm?

NOTE: This happens every storm.  When ever we are waiting for the energy to come onshore, as it begins to come onshore all of a sudden models have to ingest this new much more detailed information about the atmospshere.  The result is all of a sudden we go from what appears to be a solid consensus to all of a sudden what appears to be model mayhem.  No one should be worried right now.  I still like the black track in the map I posted this morning with the same cone of uncertainty.  By tomorrow 12z we have all energy on board and the details of the R/S line can be ironed out.  

jmanley32 wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:The nam is over amped bias and in its own camp and gone by Tuesday. Not buying the nam at all.

not even 50 cents, ud make money owning it people def use it. lol

Yeah I'm not using the regular Nan on this storm sorry jman

good kick it to the curb and in the gutter lol, anyone got 18z para nam yet? and what was snow totals on rpm?

Para-NAM is identical to regular NAM.

Full view

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:The nam is over amped bias and in its own camp and gone by Tuesday. Not buying the nam at all.

not even 50 cents, ud make money owning it people def use it. lol

Yeah I'm not using the regular Nan on this storm sorry jman

good kick it to the curb and in the gutter lol, anyone got 18z para nam yet? and what was snow totals on rpm?

Para-NAM is identical to regular NAM.

Is para the the same as hi resolution nam. Bc hi res Nan was mint

Wanna get pumped watch jeff smiths video!! He game on, said highways could even shut down 40-60mph gusts coastal areas!

https://www.facebook.com/jeffsmithABC7/

skinsfan1177 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:The nam is over amped bias and in its own camp and gone by Tuesday. Not buying the nam at all.

not even 50 cents, ud make money owning it people def use it. lol

Yeah I'm not using the regular Nan on this storm sorry jman

good kick it to the curb and in the gutter lol, anyone got 18z para nam yet? and what was snow totals on rpm?

Para-NAM is identical to regular NAM.

Is para the the same as hi resolution nam. Bc hi res Nan was mint

oy para was hoping be different.

amugs wrote:Full view

BLOWN AWAY at how early this is issued! I went for a late lunch after that Euro run, left my phone at home for two hours in hopes of good news upon returning... it WORKED! :-D

SoulSingMG wrote:

amugs wrote:Full view

BLOWN AWAY at how early this is issued! I went for a late lunch after that Euro run, left my phone at home for two hours in hopes of good news upon returning... it WORKED! :-D

Jeff smith muself and you along many others im sure are floored NWS pulled trigger so early.

18z GFS further west than 12z through 60, notnthat it means much.