March 14th Godzilla Discussion Part 2

deadrabbit79 wrote:

Quietace wrote:I think the NWS offices are doing a decent job with this. Also agree with Holly not going to Blizzard warnings and keeping watches up for the coast as the uncertainty is still high given the variability of p-type with surface low track.

Do you think they are playing it safe until the last possible moment due to having been burned in the recent past or just following normal procedure?

There range of snowfall is very legitimate, and will be increased in the overnight shift forecast as certainty in QPF and p-type increases.

jmanley32 wrote:

Quietace wrote:I think the NWS offices are doing a decent job with this. Also agree with Holly not going to Blizzard warnings and keeping watches up for the coast as the uncertainty is still high given the variability of p-type with surface low track.

hey ace I was go ask earlier I haven't seen u like all wk how could u.not b here for this! I agree with u guys stop the banter here it fills up the thread with waste of time reading. And honestly track I fo not think u will do as bad as u think.

My schedule is rather filled from 5am to about 10pm daily. I always glance at the forum in the AM but have some extra time tonight and thus I am here.

What did the 18z euro say

Quietace wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

Quietace wrote:I think the NWS offices are doing a decent job with this. Also agree with Holly not going to Blizzard warnings and keeping watches up for the coast as the uncertainty is still high given the variability of p-type with surface low track.

hey ace I was go ask earlier I haven't seen u like all wk how could u.not b here for this! I agree with u guys stop the banter here it fills up the thread with waste of time reading. And honestly track I fo not think u will do as bad as u think.

My schedule is rather filled from 5am to about 10pm daily. I always glance at the forum in the AM but have some extra time tonight and thus I am here.

cool about the blizzard watches it has nothing do with totals as u all have taught me. We clearly are go have high winds for more than 3 hrs so what's their hesitation? U know they will upgrade.

All is I know I'm not worried here in northern ocean county. I remember boxing day blizzard being close to coast not a long coast bit 75 miles off coast and we got clobbered 3ft. Dynamics will do wonders

track17 - Euro runs are only 12z and 00z

jmanley32 wrote:

Quietace wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

Quietace wrote:I think the NWS offices are doing a decent job with this. Also agree with Holly not going to Blizzard warnings and keeping watches up for the coast as the uncertainty is still high given the variability of p-type with surface low track.

hey ace I was go ask earlier I haven't seen u like all wk how could u.not b here for this! I agree with u guys stop the banter here it fills up the thread with waste of time reading. And honestly track I fo not think u will do as bad as u think.

My schedule is rather filled from 5am to about 10pm daily. I always glance at the forum in the AM but have some extra time tonight and thus I am here.

cool about the blizzard watches it has nothing do with totals as u all have taught me. We clearly are go have high winds for more than 3 hrs so what's their hesitation? U know they will upgrade.

The hesitation is ptype. Will the jersey shore have 3 hours straight of criteria if the maximum winds come as the surface low is at latitude and the associated warm nose? This si the same question for long island, and thus it comes down to preferred track.Do they eventually pull the trigger, I think for the Iland yes, not sure about the JS as I am torn between this thought process.

Oh man guess I am not sleeping tonight either got 30 min last night no way I can sleep now lol

skinsfan1177 wrote:All is I know I'm not worried here in northern ocean county. I remember boxing day blizzard being close to coast not a long coast bit 75 miles off coast and we got clobbered 3ft. Dynamics will do wonders

yep..we had the day after christmas party at our house and it turned out to be a sleep over for several days...that was a crazy and fun couple of days!!

Skins,
The winds at my concern with us being so close to the coast....Power outages....No power+cold means for a night.

long night

Quietace wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

Quietace wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

Quietace wrote:I think the NWS offices are doing a decent job with this. Also agree with Holly not going to Blizzard warnings and keeping watches up for the coast as the uncertainty is still high given the variability of p-type with surface low track.

hey ace I was go ask earlier I haven't seen u like all wk how could u.not b here for this! I agree with u guys stop the banter here it fills up the thread with waste of time reading. And honestly track I fo not think u will do as bad as u think.

My schedule is rather filled from 5am to about 10pm daily. I always glance at the forum in the AM but have some extra time tonight and thus I am here.

cool about the blizzard watches it has nothing do with totals as u all have taught me. We clearly are go have high winds for more than 3 hrs so what's their hesitation? U know they will upgrade.

The hesitation is ptype. Will the jersey shore have 3 hours straight of criteria if the maximum winds come as the surface low is at latitude and the associated warm nose? This si the same question for long island, and thus it comes down to preferred track.Do they eventually pull the trigger, I think for the Iland yes, not sure about the JS as I am torn between this thought process.  

teally it was a imby question lol. Yeah I'm inland just enough in the watch to keep it. Then I'd imagine if ptype is rain they wpuld still put up wind bullion for those areas but I get it ya it's not a blizzard if it's rain

skinsfan1177 wrote:All is I know I'm not worried here in northern ocean county. I remember boxing day blizzard being close to coast not a long coast bit 75 miles off coast and we got clobbered 3ft. Dynamics will do wonders

It was not very close to the coast.

Ryan, what is the forecast where you are in NH?

Frank, its 8 PM, we are waiting patiently

I know that my point was it wasn't far off either. And got the big snows. Not a coastal hugger but inside the BM. I'm seeing people worried with a off shore track

WeatherBob wrote:Frank, its 8 PM, we are waiting patiently  

the master is working!!

Math23x7 wrote:Ryan, what is the forecast where you are in NH?

The going discussion is 18-20". Depends on total QPF. Im leaning toward 1.5" QPF with a SFR 12-13:1+

WeatherBob wrote:Frank, its 8 PM, we are waiting patiently  

I got 8:05...

Skins do you honestly think we got a chance of something big. I trust you more then anyone else on here

Quietace wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:All is I know I'm not worried here in northern ocean county. I remember boxing day blizzard being close to coast not a long coast bit 75 miles off coast and we got clobbered 3ft. Dynamics will do wonders

It was not very close to the coast.

That's boxing day blizzard storm was suppose to have a rain/snow/mix....All snow..... That was a beast of a storm...

skinsfan1177 wrote:I know that my point was it wasn't far off either. And got the big snows. Not a coastal hugger but inside the BM. I'm seeing people worried with a off shore track

Of course, though I am leaning away from a offshore track.

Quietace wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:I know that my point was it wasn't far off either. And got the big snows. Not a coastal hugger but inside the BM. I'm seeing people worried with a off shore track

Of course, though I am leaning away from a offshore track.

So ace you thinking of a coastal hugger

track17 wrote:Skins do you honestly think we got a chance of something big. I trust you more then anyone else on here

I do like where we are atm tonight's runs are crucial and tommorrows

Awesome thank you

15-20 more minutes. Maps are done. Now I need to write something.

I just watched the weather channel and they are calling Phily  and area for 14-18 inches all the up to NY city.