Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

[skinsfan1177]

18z GFS definitely more NW again from 12z. Not much precip in the area though

Getting interesting

[skinsfan1177]

RGEM

[EnyapWeather]

Tropical Depression 10 has formed.

[Dunnzoo]

Sorry, it's the off run... not buying it yet. I'll be watching as I am down the shore, but not too concerned yet. Let's see what tomorrow's 12z shows.

[skinsfan1177]

[skinsfan1177]

Some members have flooding rains

[Sanchize06]

RGEM

Similar to where the GFS has it at hr 48, but that's more of the precip field I would expect to see.

[rb924119]

Just finished cutting a video outlining my thoughts regarding my forecast (seen below). Upload will be in progress shortly.

[rb924119]

18z GFS Ensembles another 50-75 further northwest with a continued heavy NW lean......

[Sanchize06]

18z GEFS further west than 12z

[amugs]

HOLY SNIPES PEEPS

[amugs]

Sorry, it's the off run... not buying it yet. I'll be watching as I am down the shore, but not too concerned yet. Let's see what tomorrow's 12z shows.

Z
It isn't just the off run GFS now it is R
SHORT RANGE MODELS.AND ENS.

[EnyapWeather]

Mugs can you explain what a few of the models you just posted are showing. Tough to see how bad when I'm new to game.

[jmanley32]

Hey guys just got in from a very long day unable to check in. So rb your forecast doesn't appear to get anywhere near NYC area,or is that still a possibility, mugs posted a map where its near on top of us which model is that??  Do you think we see TS or hurricane watches posted tomorrow or tuesday out of this even if it comes close but misses?  Or still too early to tell, nice job on prediction of when it would go up on percentage and form nonetheless.  I will probably stay up for the SR models but LR probably don't hold alot of info better on the SR now that we are within 3 days of Irma either upon us or offshore.  LOL no if she misses I wont be at the beach waving, just have to watch and track the next, I expect many more before season is over, not even near peak yet.

[Radz]

Hey guys just got in from a very long day unable to check in. So rb your forecast doesn't appear to get anywhere near NYC area,or is that still a possibility, mugs posted a map where its near on top of us which model is that??  Do you think we see TS or hurricane watches posted tomorrow or tuesday out of this even if it comes close but misses?  Or still too early to tell, nice job on prediction of when it would go up on percentage and form nonetheless.  I will probably stay up for the SR models but LR probably don't hold alot of info better on the SR now that we are within 3 days of Irma either upon us or offshore.  LOL no if she misses I wont be at the beach waving, just have to watch and track the next, I expect many more before season is over, not even near peak yet.

And in the long range, Euro develops the wave coming off Africa now and brings it north of Puerto Rico - the train continues...

[weatherwatchermom]

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/nursing-home-rescued-viral-photo-flooding-houston

this is crazy!!!!

[amugs]

Mugs can you explain what a few of the models you just posted are showing. Tough to see how bad when I'm new to game.

Listen here Enyap, I am Mr. Mugno to you always. Now that this is cleared up let's get to the question. NMM is a model that we follow tha iis short range.it is used for highly convective type storms.like when we have a coastal storm with lots of thunderstorms and tornado activity in the South we look at the WRF and NMM models as we get within 72 hours. 
Make sense my man.Hope the trip to da Bahamas man was goo.

[jmanley32]

That nursing home thing is downright sick, and the staff thought that was okay? Look at them just chilling sewing like its any other day, so sad we now see how nursing homes don't give a shit (though I have always known that) and this will open investigations all over country i'm sure.  Did not even think of this but I just realized with all this TX flooding gas is prolly going to soar to unheard of amounts, to the pt where no one can drive. Its unimaginable, NWS actually said we have never seen this. I do not see how any businesses will survive and the economy down there will be destroyed, I just hope someone people are able to stay alive, but I fear there may be mass casualities as this is JUST starting.  This I would never wish upon anyone, anywhere.

[amugs]

[jmanley32]

dang looks like we got another powerful one to watch coming from thre MDR, down to 940s.  Looks like all runs keep Irma well offshore, not giving up yet hahaha

[Radz]

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/nursing-home-rescued-viral-photo-flooding-houston

this is crazy!!!!

When that pic first popped up on FB, i was hoping it was photoshopped- unbelievably sad, such devastation down there!

[weatherwatchermom]

That nursing home thing is downright sick, and the staff thought that was okay? Look at them just chilling sewing like its any other day, so sad we now see how nursing homes don't give a shit (though I have always known that) and this will open investigations all over country i'm sure.  Did not even think of this but I just realized with all this TX flooding gas is prolly going to soar to unheard of amounts, to the pt where no one can drive. Its unimaginable, NWS actually said we have never seen this. I do not see how any businesses will survive and the economy down there will be destroyed, I just hope someone people are able to stay alive, but I fear there may be mass casualities as this is JUST starting.  This I would never wish upon anyone, anywhere.

actually jman this nursing home owner was waiting for national guard to come and rescue them the owner send this picture to her daughter to try a nd get anyone to come and h help them and then their phone went dead..the kids put the pic on social media in case anyone was in area to help...the area this nursing home was not an area told to evacuate.... ijust watched an interview on this

[rb924119]

Here's video that goes along with my forecast:

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0Byod2Sk27yNYazd6bTNiR2Z3Y00

[rb924119]

Hey guys just got in from a very long day unable to check in. So rb your forecast doesn't appear to get anywhere near NYC area,or is that still a possibility, mugs posted a map where its near on top of us which model is that??  Do you think we see TS or hurricane watches posted tomorrow or tuesday out of this even if it comes close but misses?  Or still too early to tell, nice job on prediction of when it would go up on percentage and form nonetheless.  I will probably stay up for the SR models but LR probably don't hold alot of info better on the SR now that we are within 3 days of Irma either upon us or offshore.  LOL no if she misses I wont be at the beach waving, just have to watch and track the next, I expect many more before season is over, not even near peak yet.

Note the cone, Jman lol Though I don't think it hits NYC directly, a closer track is certainly on the table. Tropical storm advisories maybe, but probably no higher, as things stand now. And thanks!! haha And oh God I hope not. Harvey has been enough.

[rb924119]

THE SREFS ARE INSANITY

[amugs]

Great video Rb well explaines. Learned a lot once again. Thanks for putting this together. Pushbthebjet into Maine and allow the heights to rise so it comes all the ways up!!

[amugs]

THE SREFS ARE INSANITY

YUUUGE HIT!!

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