Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

[amugs]

please folks do not get your hopes up for a hurricane to hit nyc area. the odds are HIGHLY against it. hurricanes are not the same as winter storms for our area. rarely do they occur. here are some facts.....
since 1900 there have been 7 tropical systems to cause wind gusts over hurricane strength(nyc on east). only 7 that's about one every 16 years. I should add that those hurricane force winds were mostly located at the coast not our entire region. most tropical systems that affect us are either remnants, weakening hurricanes/storms or brush us(western edge of system) the most likely and damaging aspects of these are flooding rains. so again I warn do not get hopes up!

here is the list . mike did I miss any?
1)1938 LI express strongest hurricane to ever hit nyc area cat 3. that's the only major hurricane ever recorded to hit us.
2)1944  cat 1
3) 1954 hazel 113 mph gust in nyc
4)1954 carol 120mph gust Montauk
5) 1960 donna cat 2
6) 1985 Gloria cat 2
7)2012 sandy

1903 CAT 2 by today's standards right into Atlantic City - Wildwood Barrier Island was completely submerge by the Atlantic as was Cape May - if that happened today hundreds of millions to tens of billions in damage alone

[jmanley32]

scary hairy, where would it go from there looking at the upper level setup? your best guess anyways.

[jmanley32]

And n0ote that the models are picing up on another threat for texas, oy vey this is quite the tropics season.

[SoulSingMG]

please folks do not get your hopes up for a hurricane to hit nyc area. the odds are HIGHLY against it. hurricanes are not the same as winter storms for our area. rarely do they occur. here are some facts.....
since 1900 there have been 7 tropical systems to cause wind gusts over hurricane strength(nyc on east). only 7 that's about one every 16 years. I should add that those hurricane force winds were mostly located at the coast not our entire region. most tropical systems that affect us are either remnants, weakening hurricanes/storms or brush us(western edge of system) the most likely and damaging aspects of these are flooding rains. so again I warn do not get hopes up!

here is the list . mike did I miss any?
1)1938 LI express strongest hurricane to ever hit nyc area cat 3. that's the only major hurricane ever recorded to hit us.
2)1944  cat 1
3) 1954 hazel 113 mph gust in nyc
4)1954 carol 120mph gust Montauk
5) 1960 donna cat 2
6) 1985 Gloria cat 2
7)2012 sandy

BOB: my first hurricane ;-)

[jmanley32]

please folks do not get your hopes up for a hurricane to hit nyc area. the odds are HIGHLY against it. hurricanes are not the same as winter storms for our area. rarely do they occur. here are some facts.....
since 1900 there have been 7 tropical systems to cause wind gusts over hurricane strength(nyc on east). only 7 that's about one every 16 years. I should add that those hurricane force winds were mostly located at the coast not our entire region. most tropical systems that affect us are either remnants, weakening hurricanes/storms or brush us(western edge of system) the most likely and damaging aspects of these are flooding rains. so again I warn do not get hopes up!

here is the list . mike did I miss any?
1)1938 LI express strongest hurricane to ever hit nyc area cat 3. that's the only major hurricane ever recorded to hit us.
2)1944  cat 1
3) 1954 hazel 113 mph gust in nyc
4)1954 carol 120mph gust Montauk
5) 1960 donna cat 2
6) 1985 Gloria cat 2
7)2012 sandy

BOB: my first hurricane ;-)

I remember Bob well. Was living central CT we got hit hard.

[jmanley32]

Irma winds up to 60 mph progged b hurricane by 2 pm tomorrow wow. West at 15 mph.

[rb924119]

Why the East Coast should be on guard...

http://www.weatheroptics.net/steve-dimartino/the-potential-consequences-of-a-hurricane-irma

I boycott this entity. Idc what they say I have a personal vendetta against them.

Jman, you hurt my feelings, and for that no analysis from this guy from now on. I can take a hint when it's given lol

[algae888]

If I'm not mistaken Bob was a weakening hurricane that passed east of Long Island just east not sure if we had hurricane-force gusts anywhere in the area

[track17]

Rb so we should not listen to that analysis or are you joking

[sroc4]

Why the East Coast should be on guard...

http://www.weatheroptics.net/steve-dimartino/the-potential-consequences-of-a-hurricane-irma

I boycott this entity. Idc what they say I have a personal vendetta against them.

Jman, you hurt my feelings, and for that no analysis from this guy from now on. I can take a hint when it's given lol

DONT YOU DARE STOP YOUR ANALYSIS!!! Ive known Jman a long time a long time and I know he is just trying to bust some chops even if its not appropriately timed.  You are one of the smartest and best forecasters on here.  I learn a ton from you all the time.  That is all.  

Im not sure what your personal issue is with SD but I have had my own personal issues with him myself that date back to the 2013/2014 winter.  PM me about it and we can compare notes...lol.  But seriously dont let the Jman get ya down.

[SoulSingMG]

If I'm not mistaken Bob was a weakening hurricane that passed east of Long Island just east not sure if we had hurricane-force gusts anywhere in the area

Bob was one of the costliest New England hurricanes to date, yes. However, Long Island was also pummeled (Bob's western eye wall hitting the tip of LI) resulting in the State of New York receiving 150 million dollars of damage—certainly an impactful Cat 2 hurricane in our area.

[SoulSingMG]

Why the East Coast should be on guard...

http://www.weatheroptics.net/steve-dimartino/the-potential-consequences-of-a-hurricane-irma

I boycott this entity. Idc what they say I have a personal vendetta against them.

Jman, you hurt my feelings, and for that no analysis from this guy from now on. I can take a hint when it's given lol

DONT YOU DARE STOP YOUR ANALYSIS!!! Ive known Jman a long time a long time and I know he is just trying to bust some chops even if its not appropriately timed.  You are one of the smartest and best forecasters on here.  I learn a ton from you all the time.  That is all.  

Im not sure what your personal issue is with SD but I have had my own personal issues with him myself that date back to the 2013/2014 winter.  PM me about it and we can compare notes...lol.  But seriously dont let the Jman get ya down.

Guys. No one cares for SD, namely his barking tweets lol. I don't stand by him, I stand by what I thought was a decent analysis of what's *currently modeled.

[jmanley32]

Why the East Coast should be on guard...

http://www.weatheroptics.net/steve-dimartino/the-potential-consequences-of-a-hurricane-irma

I boycott this entity. Idc what they say I have a personal vendetta against them.

Jman, you hurt my feelings, and for that no analysis from this guy from now on. I can take a hint when it's given lol

DONT YOU DARE STOP YOUR ANALYSIS!!! Ive known Jman a long time a long time and I know he is just trying to bust some chops even if its not appropriately timed.  You are one of the smartest and best forecasters on here.  I learn a ton from you all the time.  That is all.  

Im not sure what your personal issue is with SD but I have had my own personal issues with him myself that date back to the 2013/2014 winter.  PM me about it and we can compare notes...lol.  But seriously dont let the Jman get ya down.

rb it was totally a joke!! You did great both systems tropics are far complicated than anything. Sorry if it was misconstrued.

[Frank_Wx]

Hmmm

[jmanley32]

I can't wait to see your and sroc anslysis of this already strong storm. Progged b a 105mph cat 2 by sat. I don't see how it was not a appropriate time as I was just joking but I highly respected both of u. And Frank ur back from Italy time to chime in lol. also a joke!! Guess I have to be more clear.

[jmanley32]

Hmmm

that's all lol. How u been welcome back!!

[rb924119]

I can't wait to see your and sroc anslysis of this already strong storm. Progged b a 105mph cat 2 by sat. I don't see how it was not a appropriate time as I was just joking but I highly respected both of u. And Frank ur back from Italy time to chime in lol. also a joke!! Guess I have to be more clear.

Jman, of course I was kidding ahahahaha if was to take that seriously I'd ban myself from here for a week lmao my bad fellas, I thought it would be obvious; I'm the one to apparently need to apologize for an ill-timed joke ahahaha I couldn't get mad at any of you, especially when I'm harder on myself than any of you could ever be. You'd better believe I'll remember Irma (what I thought was Irma, not this new fangled mess) lmaooo

[rb924119]

Rb so we should not listen to that analysis or are you joking

Oh no, I'm not saying that at all. They have quality info and what seem to be a quality crew, I'm just personally boycotting them, not to mention going mono e mono with them aid their forecasts ahaha I have a personal vendetta with them, not Steve; I don't even know him. Just the entity aha

[rb924119]

Why the East Coast should be on guard...

http://www.weatheroptics.net/steve-dimartino/the-potential-consequences-of-a-hurricane-irma

I boycott this entity. Idc what they say I have a personal vendetta against them.

Jman, you hurt my feelings, and for that no analysis from this guy from now on. I can take a hint when it's given lol

DONT YOU DARE STOP YOUR ANALYSIS!!! Ive known Jman a long time a long time and I know he is just trying to bust some chops even if its not appropriately timed.  You are one of the smartest and best forecasters on here.  I learn a ton from you all the time.  That is all.  

Im not sure what your personal issue is with SD but I have had my own personal issues with him myself that date back to the 2013/2014 winter.  PM me about it and we can compare notes...lol.  But seriously dont let the Jman get ya down.

Scott, even if I was on my death bed I honestly don't think it would be possible for me to stop AhahAha obsession isn't even an applicable word, especially when I have a forecast on the line lmfaooooo but thank you, good buddy the feeling is mutual, as all of the pattern recognition I've come to know has been from you all, so thank you for that! No personal beef, just one with the entity, mainly. And it's really not a true "issue", just something that I really wish would have turned out differently lol as for Jman, I TOTALLY knew he was busting me, just wanted to play into it a bit, but that backfired lol you can see my response to him for further clairification

[jmanley32]

Mess Ray? Irma looks amazing and is growing in intensity fast. I'm assuming u will give us ur thoughts soon? Do u feel she's a threat like sd yes okay u have a vendetta but that particular post has some merit. What do u think?

[rb924119]

Mess Ray? Irma looks amazing and is growing in intensity fast. I'm assuming u will give us ur thoughts soon? Do u feel she's a threat like sd yes okay u have a vendetta but that particular post has some merit. What do u think?

Probably won't be able to relay too much until this time tomorrow or so, maybe later, as I have to do a verification of my "Irma". But then it would seem I don't have a choice to not take part in this event, so that will likely be next item on the list

And I say mess because it is a mess........gonna mean three hours of sleep a night for the next three weeks........AGAIN lmaooooooo and tbh I haven't even read the article yet. Again, some of my thoughts may trickle out over the next day, but my first actual in-depth comments will probably hold off until tomorrow evening or Friday (I think that's the day after, I don't even know what day it is) ahaha 36 hours from now if not tomorrow evening lmfao

[rb924119]

Can you tell I'm still frazzled? AhHaha

[SoulSingMG]

Some perspective. (Courtesy @NorthEast_Wx)

[Dunnzoo]

Some perspective. (Courtesy @NorthEast_Wx)

In otherwords, no clue yet.... take the weekend off and enjoy the last hurrah of our summer!

[sroc4]

Some perspective. (Courtesy @NorthEast_Wx)

Soul This map is perfectly done.

[SoulSingMG]

Some perspective. (Courtesy @NorthEast_Wx)

Soul This map is perfectly done.

Yeah, agreed. LOTS of tracking days ahead of us.

[skinsfan1177]

Euro control was unreal

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