Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

[rb924119]

RGEM northwest by about 75 miles from 18z, but it's still not really in range yet.

[jmanley32]

What do we think of the 3km NAM, thats much stronger than any other model at that time suggesting a rather rapid intensification, and some of those sref DO take a very irene like track of at least close enough to the area to give TS MAYBE higher conditions, but many are also well offshore.

[amugs]

Madonne over 30" in many arewas bu Houston with about q2" plus.more to come Jesus

[jmanley32]

RGEM northwest by about 75 miles from 18z, but it's still not really in range yet.

You say the NHC are using the hwrf etc? Don't they usually do pretty bad?  If these ticks west continue into tomorrow with ur effects map be shifted NW and maybe NHC will move cone futher north and west?  I mean its really down to two days before Irma IF she will be bearing down on the area, so won't have much notice.  God look at precip in houston on 3km, so bad.

[rb924119]

Madonne over 30" in many arewas bu Houston with about q2" plus.more to come Jesus

Yeah that's just amazing. No other word to describe it, really. That area is losing pretty much its entire infrastructure, if you think about it. Just unbelievable.

[aiannone]

Am I going to have to drive home from Binghamton? Time will tell. Excited for tomorrow's runs

[aiannone]

0z GFS running now

[rb924119]

RGEM northwest by about 75 miles from 18z, but it's still not really in range yet.

You say the NHC are using the hwrf etc? Don't they usually do pretty bad?  If these ticks west continue into tomorrow with ur effects map be shifted NW and maybe NHC will move cone futher north and west?  I mean its really down to two days before Irma IF she will be bearing down on the area, so won't have much notice.  God look at precip in houston on 3km, so bad.

Oh there is no doubt that's what their track is based on lol go on Tropical Tidbits under current storms and you'll see the 00z hurricane model suite spaghettis right next to their track; they're identical ahaha I don't like the hurricane models. Every time I've ever looked at them they've been wrong lol and yeah, no doubt I'd update for further west. But that's a long way off yet haha I'd REALLY like to see more guidance jump on it tbh, but you gotta take a stand at some point so I did. Either way, if I see changes are needed I will either issue a new set of maps if I have time or just describe the changes as best I can.

[aiannone]

Identical to 18z so far

[rb924119]

Looks like GFS will be similar to 18z, though I've already been wrong trying to guess ahead of time ahaha

[Sanchize06]

GFS further east than 18z lol

[rb924119]

Slightly southeast of 18z. Darn lol the waffling continues aha

[jmanley32]

gfs is east darn.

[Snow88]

0z GFS is slightly more southeast than 18z run

Meh

GN

[aiannone]

Yupp east on this run

[jmanley32]

LR models are nearing their pint that they arent that helpful but we will see, ill check back in the morning. Night all, ray thanks for all ur insight.

[track17]

That east move is great news for the jersey shore thank god

[jmanley32]

Yes cuz one model run of the GFS is the end all, we can all say its all over and nothing will happen (sarcasm)

[jmanley32]

0z GFS is slightly more southeast than 18z run

Meh

GN

LOL, waffling my man, we wont know till tomorrow night IMO, maybe even sometime tuesday.

[SoulSingMG]

EURO made a huuuuge shift NW.

[rb924119]

EURO made a huuuuge shift NW.

Yeah it did. Just a hair southeast and weaker than my forecast now. I'm feeling better now, though would still like more aha that said, ALL of the short range guidance came much further northwest too at 00z, including the UKMET, which is also very nearly the same as my forecast, though again, weaker. However, intensity is not something that I'm as concerned with atm. GFS Ensembles looked very similar to 18z, and still showed a northwest lean, so it could have been a wonky Op run.

[rb924119]

EURO Ensembles backed 150 miles northwest with a northwest lean too! Look very similar to the GFS Ensembles now with some very high and tight members, now, if you will lol

[jmanley32]

nam has kept east of hatteras for 06z....off run rb?

[skinsfan1177]

Seems many are down playing this

[algae888]

Seems many are down playing this

Why would anyone hype this system? I mean it's not like the center is going to pass through Central Long Island. Intensity is still a big question. Most of the area will feel Fringe effects periods of rain Gusty winds but nothing out of the ordinary. Beach erosion and rough surf are probably the two biggest issues with the storm which affects only immediate coastal areas. We've spent a lot of days tracking the system and besides the CMC for a few days no model has showed a Direct Hit.

[rb924119]

Seems many are down playing this

Why would anyone hype this system? I mean it's not like the center is going to pass through Central Long Island. Intensity is still a big question. Most of the area will feel Fringe effects periods of rain Gusty winds but nothing out of the ordinary. Beach erosion and rough surf are probably the two biggest issues with the storm which affects only immediate coastal areas. We've spent a lot of days tracking the system and besides the CMC for a few days no model has showed  a Direct Hit.

You're not wrong. It definitely won't be anything crippling haha mainly like a strong nor'easter.

[Sanchize06]

RGEM

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