Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

[skinsfan1177]

We have Irma per ngc special statement will make official at 11am. I'm telling u this go b a beast already skipped depression.

Send the beast ots

[EnyapWeather]

I’d actually like to see what a hurricane is like in real life so I’m cheering for this one to be close.

[sabamfa]

I’d actually like to see what a hurricane is like in real life so I’m cheering for this one to be close.

I used to be like that. When I was a kid, my grandma would take me to Cape May if there was going to be a hurricane near, because we both liked a good storm.

Then as an adult, I saw the immense flooding from Irene (the only time my parents house ever came close to flooding)....and then experienced the utter devastation of Sandy. I've never been as terrified as I was during that storm. No thanks, never again.

[jmanley32]

Irma looks to be intensifying fast already looks like almost a hurticane.

[hyde345]

Irma is going to be a problem. I would also trust Euro tracking on this one as opposed to GFS.

[track17]

Please tell me this is going out to see. I am scared out of my mind now.

[larryrock72]

Way too early to tell Track. They will have a better idea in the next 4-5 days, but would should keep an eye on it.

[rb924119]

Looks like it's time for the board members to strap on our big person pants and get ready for another three weeks of tracking lol

[jmanley32]

Lol rb 2 strikes ur out no more forecasts. Lol jk. Euro has it threaten east coast too I think if extrapolated out but it's already a 50mph ts and go b hurricane by weekend. Go b a beast.

[sroc4]

All models will have their place. Dont look too far beyond 5 days with this, but keep in mind this system has a defined center already. Something for the models to initiate on. Much different than the broad disorganized waves we've experienced thus far. Keys will be in the Atlantic ridge and approaching trough. Too far out to say much more than that. Remember that the stronger the system is as it passes the 60W longitude the easier it will be to find any weakness in the western flank of the Atlantic ridge. Another fun 2-3 weeks of tracking for sure but I dont care how consistent a model or models will be going forward. Until we get this system 5-7days out or less it means nothing.

[SoulSingMG]

Why the East Coast should be on guard...

http://www.weatheroptics.net/steve-dimartino/the-potential-consequences-of-a-hurricane-irma

[sroc4]

Why the East Coast should be on guard...

http://www.weatheroptics.net/steve-dimartino/the-potential-consequences-of-a-hurricane-irma

This is a good read and doesn't over hype things too much; however, all too often we see the upper level pattern completely change when it's ten or more days out.

[jmanley32]

Good god 12z gfs 903mb off east coast!!! Afyer hi res it prolly goes sub 900mb. Yeah a recurve but shit....

[track17]

Jman but is it a storm for the fishes from that run or do I need to start making plans for an evacuation

[jmanley32]

Sroc didn't u say that long range upper level patterns tend to be a bit more reliable than the actual system itself
I must say Irma jumped from nothing to a pretty well defined solid system. I think despite jc comments about dry air if she's a hurricane will be able to maintain. I've also been hear people worried in gulf of course guidance can and will change I think the East coast is most at risk att. His nap of the split anyone of those would be devastating to the area. No pt in speculating until at least Monday or e en mid next week. Rb any thoughts? Maybe 3x the charm.

[jmanley32]

Jman but is it a storm for the fishes from that run or do I need to start making plans for an evacuation

just one run but it went ots. Euro is prolly the one to follow. It also shows risk to east coast. No need for any preparations we have no clue where Irma will go. This is at least 10 days away so for now just watch and wait. That's all we can do. I'd b very surprised but not impossible I guess to see a crazy cat 5 headed to the us with of course a chance to recurve just as much as making a landfall. Read the link posted it paints the picture for the risk.

[hyde345]

Jman but is it a storm for the fishes from that run or do I need to start making plans for an evacuation

Track, the GFS recurves it OTS but that doesn't mean it's correct. It's just too early to know whats going to happen in our area. It's still about 2 weeks away.

[track17]

But that is at least an positive sign

[jmanley32]

But that is at least an positive sign

not really last night it nearly made landfall on the area. Models will vary greatly for wuite some time. I'd pay more attention to euro I'm. Nearly all the posts I've seen on Irma are of the euro.

[skinsfan1177]

These are all fantasy land scenarios like others have said ill be interested and takes it seriously 5 days out. Right know its just to far away

[jmanley32]

Right skins but there's def a threat. If there's one thing I hate about tropics is the uncertainty and long as heck tracking time. Glad I'm busy till 6th which we will prolly know much more by then.

[algae888]

please folks do not get your hopes up for a hurricane to hit nyc area. the odds are HIGHLY against it. hurricanes are not the same as winter storms for our area. rarely do they occur. here are some facts.....
since 1900 there have been 7 tropical systems to cause wind gusts over hurricane strength(nyc on east). only 7 that's about one every 16 years. I should add that those hurricane force winds were mostly located at the coast not our entire region. most tropical systems that affect us are either remnants, weakening hurricanes/storms or brush us(western edge of system) the most likely and damaging aspects of these are flooding rains. so again I warn do not get hopes up!

here is the list . mike did I miss any?
1)1938 LI express strongest hurricane to ever hit nyc area cat 3. that's the only major hurricane ever recorded to hit us.
2)1944 cat 1
3) 1954 hazel 113 mph gust in nyc
4)1954 carol 120mph gust Montauk
5) 1960 donna cat 2
6) 1985 Gloria cat 2
7)2012 sandy

[jmanley32]

please folks do not get your hopes up for a hurricane to hit nyc area. the odds are HIGHLY against it. hurricanes are not the same as winter storms for our area. rarely do they occur. here are some facts.....
since 1900 there have been 7 tropical systems to cause wind gusts over hurricane strength(nyc on east). only 7 that's about one every 16 years. I should add that those hurricane force winds were mostly located at the coast not our entire region. most tropical systems that affect us are either remnants, weakening hurricanes/storms or brush us(western edge of system) the most likely and damaging aspects of these are flooding rains. so again I warn do not get hopes up!

here is the list . mike did I miss any?
1)1938 LI express strongest hurricane to ever hit nyc area cat 3. that's the only major hurricane ever recorded to hit us.
2)1944  cat 1
3) 1954 hazel 113 mph gust in nyc
4)1954 carol 120mph gust Montauk
5) 1960 donna cat 2
6) 1985 Gloria cat 2
7)2012 sandy 

This is true, but at some pt it will happen again, theres thrill for me just in tracking a system wether or not it has any effect on us or not.  I will say i like tracking winter storms more cuz its shorter and more likely.

[jmanley32]

12z Euro paints a ugly piucture for north antilles, PR dominican republic and at the end has its eye on FL, not sure where it would go from there but it missed its ots trip.

[amugs]

[amugs]

please folks do not get your hopes up for a hurricane to hit nyc area. the odds are HIGHLY against it. hurricanes are not the same as winter storms for our area. rarely do they occur. here are some facts.....
since 1900 there have been 7 tropical systems to cause wind gusts over hurricane strength(nyc on east). only 7 that's about one every 16 years. I should add that those hurricane force winds were mostly located at the coast not our entire region. most tropical systems that affect us are either remnants, weakening hurricanes/storms or brush us(western edge of system) the most likely and damaging aspects of these are flooding rains. so again I warn do not get hopes up!

here is the list . mike did I miss any?
1)1938 LI express strongest hurricane to ever hit nyc area cat 3. that's the only major hurricane ever recorded to hit us.
2)1944  cat 1
3) 1954 hazel 113 mph gust in nyc
4)1954 carol 120mph gust Montauk
5) 1960 donna cat 2
6) 1985 Gloria cat 2
7)2012 sandy

1903 CAT 2 by today's standards right into Atlantic City - Wildwood Barrier Island was completely submerge by the Atlantic as was Cape May - if that happened today hundreds of millions to tens of billions in damage alone

[jmanley32]

scary hairy, where would it go from there looking at the upper level setup? your best guess anyways.

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