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2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

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Post by amugs Thu Aug 31, 2017 3:02 pm

Euro wipes out the FLA. keys - WAR is super strong on this run - totally different at H5 in terms of strength on the EURO.

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Post by amugs Thu Aug 31, 2017 3:04 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Misses direct into fl and heads into gulf? Is that a likely senario?

Could be at this stage and need to watch the strength of the WAR if it is blend between teh EURO and GFS then holy smokes EC. It has been over modelled (WAR) all summer in LR guidance. Time will tell

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Aug 31, 2017 3:04 pm

Shouldn't we make a thread for Irma? So here we can discuss the new entity coming off? Plus this thread is getting super long lol
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Aug 31, 2017 3:07 pm

@amugs wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Misses direct into fl and heads into gulf? Is that a likely senario?

Could be at this stage and need to watch the strength of the WAR if it is blend between teh EURO and GFS then holy smokes EC. It has been over modelled (WAR) all summer in LR guidance. Time will tell
yeah actually I always say track is between euro and gfs which would bring all way up coast and cause a huge effect too many states. Yes time will tell. Much time lol hate time
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Post by sroc4 Thu Aug 31, 2017 3:07 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Misses direct into fl and heads into gulf? Is that a likely senario?

If your is correct at H5 it is. Models diverge on upper air pattern beyond day 3-5 so although I am going over it dont put any stock in any one soln.

Big forks in the road:

1) Current track is NNW. In about 2 days it is forecast to start moving west then SSW from there. How far north it gets in the next 2 days then how far south it gets between day 2-5 as it approaches 60W.

2) Euro shows trough split over the mid west beginning around hr 144 or by Wednesday next week. GFS on the other hand does not show the trough split until hr 186-192, or by Friday, and does so over the Mid Atlantic states. The difference in the two is with euro scenerio there is ridging along the east coast steering it west, the GFS scenario has the ridge out over the Atlantic causing the recurve.

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Post by amugs Thu Aug 31, 2017 3:09 pm

Sanvu recurving typhoon into the GOA will have yuuge downstream effects needs to be watched closely IMO

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Post by sroc4 Thu Aug 31, 2017 3:12 pm

@amugs wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Misses direct into fl and heads into gulf? Is that a likely senario?

Could be at this stage and need to watch the strength of the WAR if it is blend between teh EURO and GFS then holy smokes EC. It has been over modelled (WAR) all summer in LR guidance. Time will tell

Bingo Mugs. Timing and positioning of the trough and if/when it splits, and the positioning and strength of the WAR

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by sroc4 Thu Aug 31, 2017 3:14 pm

A blend of the two solns is usually the right one esp when they both show the opposite ends of the spectrum like they do now. SE Canada to GOM still in play.

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
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Post by sroc4 Thu Aug 31, 2017 4:03 pm

12z Euro Ensembles are N and E of 00z and Euro Op

12z:

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 37 Eps_sl12

00z:

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 37 Eps_sl11

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by Disneyprincess1592 Thu Aug 31, 2017 4:06 pm

Worst case this hits Florida head on, I live in Orlando what does everyone think is going to happen to Orlando?

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Post by amugs Thu Aug 31, 2017 4:14 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@amugs wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Misses direct into fl and heads into gulf? Is that a likely senario?

Could be at this stage and need to watch the strength of the WAR if it is blend between teh EURO and GFS then holy smokes EC. It has been over modelled (WAR) all summer in LR guidance. Time will tell

Bingo Mugs.  Timing and positioning of the trough and if/when it splits, and the positioning and strength of the WAR

My younger good looking like brethren (Zoo says this to me when she sees me LOL!) these 3 aspects (Recurve typhoon, WAR and trough)tell the tale of what Irma will do. My other concern is the 2 other TD/TC that the gfs and euro had after her. This could get really ugly for the USA mainland.

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Post by sroc4 Thu Aug 31, 2017 4:15 pm

@Disneyprincess1592 wrote:Worst case this hits Florida head on, I live in Orlando what does everyone think is going to happen to Orlando?

Welcome DP. Still too far out to tell.  My guess is by Tuesday of next week, +/- a day, we should have a better idea of where Irma is headed.  Right now the entire EC is still possible.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Aug 31, 2017 4:17 pm

@sroc4 wrote:12z Euro Ensembles are N and E of 00z and Euro Op

12z:

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 37 Eps_sl12

00z:

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 37 Eps_sl11
Exactly my pt, I just have a feeling this is going to ride the coast, not wishcasting (okay maybe a little) but the fork in the road would do so.  I am guessing at 5pm we have at least a cat 3.
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Post by Disneyprincess1592 Thu Aug 31, 2017 4:19 pm

Well let's just hope it hits Florida completely, we been doing so good with not getting hurricanes

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Post by Disneyprincess1592 Thu Aug 31, 2017 4:20 pm

Doesn't hit Florida.. no way I want a hurricane

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Post by amugs Thu Aug 31, 2017 4:21 pm

For those who need color graphics - YIKES!!
2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 37 Eps_slp_min_noram_47

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Post by sroc4 Thu Aug 31, 2017 4:22 pm

@Disneyprincess1592 wrote:Doesn't hit Florida.. no way I want a hurricane

LOL  I knew what you meant. I did read it 2 or 3 times though

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Post by amugs Thu Aug 31, 2017 4:22 pm

EPS does just what I was talking about with SROC a blend HOLY HOOCHIMAMAS!!

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 37 DIlQfZzVYAAm7YT

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Aug 31, 2017 4:31 pm

@amugs wrote:EPS does just what I was talking about with SROC a blend HOLY HOOCHIMAMAS!!

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 37 DIlQfZzVYAAm7YT
Is that a gap to go right up the coast?
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Post by weatherwatchermom Thu Aug 31, 2017 4:33 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@amugs wrote:EPS does just what I was talking about with SROC a blend HOLY HOOCHIMAMAS!!

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 37 DIlQfZzVYAAm7YT
Is that a gap to go right up the coast?

jman that was my question as well?!
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Aug 31, 2017 4:37 pm

@weatherwatchermom wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@amugs wrote:EPS does just what I was talking about with SROC a blend HOLY HOOCHIMAMAS!!

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 37 DIlQfZzVYAAm7YT
Is that a gap to go right up the coast?

jman that was my question as well?!
I think it is going neutral and headed to negative which would capture irma no?
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Aug 31, 2017 4:39 pm

Cat 3 guys 115mph winds, holy snikes mugs!
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Post by sroc4 Thu Aug 31, 2017 4:49 pm

Harvey headed for the Tenn valley, and what should have been Irma, headed into the N Atlantic. Good riddance huh Ray? told ya

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 37 Rgb-animated

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Aug 31, 2017 4:54 pm

Can we say east coast threat or OTS, not many far from going up the coast, this is not good, I know still way far off but this no look good for those that want it to stay away.

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 37 Al11_210
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Post by Guest Thu Aug 31, 2017 5:04 pm

10 days out till it reaches the Caribbean. A LOT WILL CHANGE. Everyone relax. Come talk to me in 5 days

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