Tracking Hurricane Irma

Sanchize06 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:Majority of GEFS members look to still be east of Florida, heading for the Carolinas. Pretty big shift just from 0z. Still a long way to go for the East Coast.

Yeah the GFS is trying to keep the Eastern Seaboard in the game, but the 00z runs were mainly west, which I personally take more seriously than the off-hour 06/18z's

Yeah the 12z runs will be interesting

If they stay east into the carolinas, does that put us back in the threat as a coastal runner or will it still likely get pushed west inland, or do we still have no clue?

I still think there's a lot of time for a scenario where it goes into NC and comes north, but I guess we'll see. What's forcing it that far inland, the ridge?

Inland, or west?

Inland, I know the ridge is forcing it further to the west in the next couple of days, but what's preventing it from coming up the coast after landfall?

It is fake (jk), the models are trying to trick us, watch it suddenly decides to run the coast in a few days and give us a TS or minimal hurricane.  I think once we see that turn if there is one the models will start to show where she goes from there,  it may not be before then.  Just a opinion.

Sanchize06 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:Majority of GEFS members look to still be east of Florida, heading for the Carolinas. Pretty big shift just from 0z. Still a long way to go for the East Coast.

Yeah the GFS is trying to keep the Eastern Seaboard in the game, but the 00z runs were mainly west, which I personally take more seriously than the off-hour 06/18z's

Yeah the 12z runs will be interesting

If they stay east into the carolinas, does that put us back in the threat as a coastal runner or will it still likely get pushed west inland, or do we still have no clue?

I still think there's a lot of time for a scenario where it goes into NC and comes north, but I guess we'll see. What's forcing it that far inland, the ridge?

Inland, or west?

Inland, I know the ridge is forcing it further to the west in the next couple of days, but what's preventing it from coming up the coast after landfall?

The amount of interaction between itself and the shortwave trough diving into the central U.S. behind the big trough. The greater the interaction, the less likely to come up the coast. The less interaction, the further north the system can get before it eventually consolidates with the shortwave.

jmanley32 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:Majority of GEFS members look to still be east of Florida, heading for the Carolinas. Pretty big shift just from 0z. Still a long way to go for the East Coast.

Yeah the GFS is trying to keep the Eastern Seaboard in the game, but the 00z runs were mainly west, which I personally take more seriously than the off-hour 06/18z's

Yeah the 12z runs will be interesting

If they stay east into the carolinas, does that put us back in the threat as a coastal runner or will it still likely get pushed west inland, or do we still have no clue?

I still think there's a lot of time for a scenario where it goes into NC and comes north, but I guess we'll see. What's forcing it that far inland, the ridge?

Inland, or west?

Inland, I know the ridge is forcing it further to the west in the next couple of days, but what's preventing it from coming up the coast after landfall?

It is fake (jk), the models are trying to trick us, watch it suddenly decides to run the coast in a few days and give us a TS or minimal hurricane.  I think once we see that turn if there is one the models will start to show where she goes from there,  it may not be before then.  Just a opinion.

lol don't wish such a thing upon us aha (I know you're really not, don't worry, but would secretly like to experience the winds without any threat to life or property )

rb924119 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:Majority of GEFS members look to still be east of Florida, heading for the Carolinas. Pretty big shift just from 0z. Still a long way to go for the East Coast.

Yeah the GFS is trying to keep the Eastern Seaboard in the game, but the 00z runs were mainly west, which I personally take more seriously than the off-hour 06/18z's

Yeah the 12z runs will be interesting

If they stay east into the carolinas, does that put us back in the threat as a coastal runner or will it still likely get pushed west inland, or do we still have no clue?

I still think there's a lot of time for a scenario where it goes into NC and comes north, but I guess we'll see. What's forcing it that far inland, the ridge?

Inland, or west?

Inland, I know the ridge is forcing it further to the west in the next couple of days, but what's preventing it from coming up the coast after landfall?

The amount of interaction between itself and the shortwave trough diving into the central U.S. behind the big trough. The greater the interaction, the less likely to come up the coast. The less interaction, the further north the system can get before it eventually consolidates with the shortwave.

Okay thanks that makes sense. What about Jose? Is there any chance he weakens the ridge out east and allows for a quicker north turn?

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:Majority of GEFS members look to still be east of Florida, heading for the Carolinas. Pretty big shift just from 0z. Still a long way to go for the East Coast.

Yeah the GFS is trying to keep the Eastern Seaboard in the game, but the 00z runs were mainly west, which I personally take more seriously than the off-hour 06/18z's

Yeah the 12z runs will be interesting

If they stay east into the carolinas, does that put us back in the threat as a coastal runner or will it still likely get pushed west inland, or do we still have no clue?

I still think there's a lot of time for a scenario where it goes into NC and comes north, but I guess we'll see. What's forcing it that far inland, the ridge?

Inland, or west?

Inland, I know the ridge is forcing it further to the west in the next couple of days, but what's preventing it from coming up the coast after landfall?

It is fake (jk), the models are trying to trick us, watch it suddenly decides to run the coast in a few days and give us a TS or minimal hurricane.  I think once we see that turn if there is one the models will start to show where she goes from there,  it may not be before then.  Just a opinion.

lol don't wish such a thing upon us aha (I know you're really not, don't worry, but would secretly like to experience the winds without any threat to life or property )

Nah, I think we prolly escapes us but its still possible I guess.

Ray we are going to have to watch two key features very closely if your theory of a eastern Gulf track comes to fruition.  
First is that ridge over Texas, and second is the mean trough.  I do ot believe modeling is handling the nature of the mean trough very well at all, and additional changes in the modeling are afoot as we move ahead.  Notice the 48hr trends on the GFS.  The trend is to nose the higher heights stronger and further east over Texas, and also the trend is to build higher heights into the mid Atlantic faster.  I still think highest probability is a landfall between N Georgia to OBX with the EC of Fla still at risk for significant effects.

sroc4 wrote:Ray we are going to have to watch two key features very closely if your theory of a eastern Gulf track comes to fruition.  
First is that ridge over Texas, and second is the mean trough.  I do ot believe modeling is handling the nature of the mean trough very well at all, and additional changes in the modeling are afoot as we move ahead.  Notice the 48hr trends on the GFS.  The trend is to nose the higher heights stronger and further east over Texas, and also the trend is to build higher heights into the mid Atlantic faster.  I still think highest probability is a landfall between N Georgia to OBX with the EC of Fla still at risk for significant effects.  

I know others have keyed in but if you feel GA to OBX is the area, will she continue north from there or veer sharply west like some model runs have shown? Just want ur opinion, if you alrady answered sorry I am tired and been trying to talk to a million people about this LOL

Jman there is still so much uncertainty beyond day 4-5 that I don't know where it goes beyond that. It could come up the coast or OTS or cont inland and west. It all depends on what the steering layers look like at that time.

And GOm track is still not impossible either. I can def still see this track happening. I just think it's less likely than the one I suggest

sroc4 wrote:Ray we are going to have to watch two key features very closely if your theory of a eastern Gulf track comes to fruition.  
First is that ridge over Texas, and second is the mean trough.  I do ot believe modeling is handling the nature of the mean trough very well at all, and additional changes in the modeling are afoot as we move ahead.  Notice the 48hr trends on the GFS.  The trend is to nose the higher heights stronger and further east over Texas, and also the trend is to build higher heights into the mid Atlantic faster.  I still think highest probability is a landfall between N Georgia to OBX with the EC of Fla still at risk for significant effects.  

sroc4 wrote:Jman there is still so much uncertainty beyond day 4-5 that I don't know where it goes beyond that. It could come up the coast or OTS or cont inland and west. It all depends on what the steering layers look like at that time.

Agree.

Starting to see east trends

Frank_Wx wrote:

wow that's amazing. Any chance we see a double eyewall?

Frank_Wx wrote:Starting to see east trends

KING NAM LOL!

Frank_Wx wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Ray we are going to have to watch two key features very closely if your theory of a eastern Gulf track comes to fruition.  
First is that ridge over Texas, and second is the mean trough.  I do ot believe modeling is handling the nature of the mean trough very well at all, and additional changes in the modeling are afoot as we move ahead.  Notice the 48hr trends on the GFS.  The trend is to nose the higher heights stronger and further east over Texas, and also the trend is to build higher heights into the mid Atlantic faster.  I still think highest probability is a landfall between N Georgia to OBX with the EC of Fla still at risk for significant effects.  

sroc4 wrote:Jman there is still so much uncertainty beyond day 4-5 that I don't know where it goes beyond that. It could come up the coast or OTS or cont inland and west. It all depends on what the steering layers look like at that time.

Agree.

okay wasn't sure if we would have a better idea or not yet. So by what like Fri to sun maybe we know?

Frank_Wx wrote:Starting to see east trends

It's identical to 00z with regard to the mean, but has more a cluster to the west than 00z. Idk if I'd call this a trend lol

sroc4 wrote:Ray we are going to have to watch two key features very closely if your theory of a eastern Gulf track comes to fruition.  
First is that ridge over Texas, and second is the mean trough.  I do ot believe modeling is handling the nature of the mean trough very well at all, and additional changes in the modeling are afoot as we move ahead.  Notice the 48hr trends on the GFS.  The trend is to nose the higher heights stronger and further east over Texas, and also the trend is to build higher heights into the mid Atlantic faster.  I still think highest probability is a landfall between N Georgia to OBX with the EC of Fla still at risk for significant effects.  

I agree with the ridge part, but that should erode. The mean trough I think is a mute point at this time. The hurricane doesn't know that trough exists because of the ridge building in over top of it as that trough lifts out. The second player is the shortwave coming down the eastern flank of the decaying ridge, which should erode the eastern flank and interact with Irma. That's why I think it ends up there. If you saw my update yesterday I explained it in more detail.

Scott:

And I'm in no way suggesting anybody is in the clear yet ahaha your thoughts are just as valid and those folks should be paying just as much attention. We just (respectfully) differ in our opinions of the eventual outcomes aha

amugs wrote:

well that clears things up lol

rb924119 wrote:Scott:

Of course this is assuming Irma makes it this far S and West .

sroc4 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Scott:

Of course this is assuming Irma makes it this far S and West .  

You are not wrong ahahahaha

HEY MON - This is the deepest storm ever that would just obliterate anything in its path!!

WOW 853 MB ON THAT

180 mph and 931 mb at the 11:00 advisory