Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Since there isn't a whole lot else going on no need to start a new thread until someone, myself, Frank , Ray or whoever, does a big write up on Jose.  Euro def came back with Jose, in a CMC from yesterday kind of way, but both Euro and GFS ensembles means are still OTS.  HOWEVER, even though the means are out to sea there are still a small handful of members in each camp that are much closer to the coast.  Still a ways to go with this in the modeling.  

UKIE as I mentioned may happen last night came further N with the system and is sitting just off OBX at day 7



With 500mb

I really like a blend of the NAVGEM, EURO, CMC, AND UKMET right now, though I do believe we see a bit of a correction northwest with the operational, and a large correction northwest of the respective Ensembles. The Euro and GFS Ensembles, even the Operationals, are trying to drop way too much trough into southeastern Canada in my opinion, which is why they are largely out to sea still, though gradually correcting westward in time already. In this regard, I like the NAVGEM most followed by the CMC, though I still believe a further west adjustment will be probable in coming days as the temporal scale shortens and feedbacks with the Atlantic ridge are sensed/less trough is attempted to be dropped further southeast into southeastern Canada in response to a moderately strong persistent SOI base-state, progressive pattern and large-amplitude trough barreling into the western CONUS. **In my opinion**, NOTHING supports a trough breaking through the North American ridge to swing Jose out before landfalling, while A LOT of things support a westward adjustment. Have to see where modeling takes us. Btw, UKMET out to 144 looks a lot like the NAVGEM, though further west. However, it's at the fringe of its temporal range and is not being taken seriously at this time, even though I mentioned it in my blend above (I like where it looks to be going, but did not factor it in......yet). Be back this evening!

18z GEFS



0z GEFS



6z GEFS

My thoughts on Jose:

I'm not confident Jose makes landfall on the coast, but I do think he could get close enough to still bring some impact in terms of rain, some wind, and surge. He doesn't look like he will be overly powerful. Maybe a Cat 1 or weaker. There's a ridge over the Atlantic that tries to push him into our coast. However, there is also a negative PNA or progressive flow across the country that would suggest it keeps Jose offshore. Almost looks like he gets stuck in the middle which is why some models slow him down significantly at our latitude. Overall, I don't view him as a serious or concerning threat but he is a threat to bring some hazardous weather to our area.

A lot of GEFS members are west of OP

Navgem hammers the NYC area and stalls the south to the east

I'd have to agree with any of the yay party due to what I've seen rb write sroc the nhc shifting west and the models continual west shift but I have questioned a actual landfall too frank as the models look to push and pull as u said stuck in between. I guess it may come down to what has a stronger push.

A lot of tucked members

And I do not mean yay as in yay we get destroyed by a hurricane. Yay as in I feel from what I have seen westward shift is not done and landfall not impossible. Also wanted point out that Jose grows in size immensly so wouldn't ts conditions be pretty far from the center. And if pressure us really in the 950s you still feel that would b cat 1? Is that due to going extra tropical.

skinsfan1177 wrote:A lot of tucked members

Wow that's really close is movement from there nw or ne?

A number do landfall in Jersey ny and ct also a large amount go ots grazing area. Still long way to go.

The indies for the GEFS are impressive. A lot of members near the coast.

Holy cow fwiw 12z hwrf due North at 126 950 mb just to south headed due North looks like would b long island. 18z is a bit east but I'm go with rb and mugs who believe off runs aren't gr8.

amugs wrote:

That's still the 5 pm mugs look bottom left. Takes bit to update.

GFS slightly NW through hr 48 from 18z

Ridging seems a tad stronger out in the Atlantic too, could force it a little further west this run

Not much of a change at the surface weaker till he 54 then the same as 18z.

951mb and NW of 18z through 84. Going to be an interesting run

Def getting pushed nw heading up past Hatteras if Jose doesn't find a escape there may be a landfall.

No escape, dangerous run

Boy Jose gets massive winds would b far reaching if this played out.

Hr 114, moving NNW

Shoot the war is pretty strong we may see a nudge to Long island landfall here...

Sanchize06 wrote:Hr 114, moving NNW

This will def perk some concern especially if other models follow suit.