Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Shoot the war is pretty strong we may see a nudge to Long island landfall here...

Sanchize06 wrote:Hr 114, moving NNW

This will def perk some concern especially if other models follow suit.

Hr 120

Wow landfall in Long island... Edit miles off the tip into ri or mass.

Cmc is west a bit too.

jmanley32 wrote:Wow landfall in Long island... Edit miles off the tip into ri or mass.

This run may wake some people up lol

Any further west and this would landfall in NJ or NYC. Either way this run was a big hit for the area due to his size and especially for coastal areas.

Wait wth! Jose does a loop to come back for seconds?!

jmanley32 wrote:Wait wth! Jose does a loop to come back for seconds?!

And Lee is coming lol

jmanley32 wrote:Wait wth! Jose does a loop to come back for seconds?!

I really should be sleeping right now so I don't want to get too involved in the hopes of trying to get back to sleep after CMC comes in, but yes, though as a much weaker non-tropical entity. This would mean a potentially extremely scary situation if the next system comes north of the Bahamas, but let's focus on one at a time. FWIW cat-1 into Long Island, cat-2 just east of AC

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Wait wth! Jose does a loop to come back for seconds?!

I really should be sleeping right now so I don't want to get too involved in the hopes of trying to get back to sleep after CMC comes in, but yes, though as a much weaker non-tropical entity. This would mean a potentially extremely scary situation if the next system comes north of the Bahamas, but let's focus on one at a time. FWIW cat-1 into Long Island, cat-2 just east of AC

Yeah but still bizarre run and I'm guessing the rotation of the remnant could steer Lee into coast? That would surely buffet nj and NYC with a cat 2 to 1 passing that close. Not eastern side but still.

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Wait wth! Jose does a loop to come back for seconds?!

I really should be sleeping right now so I don't want to get too involved in the hopes of trying to get back to sleep after CMC comes in, but yes, though as a much weaker non-tropical entity. This would mean a potentially extremely scary situation if the next system comes north of the Bahamas, but let's focus on one at a time. FWIW cat-1 into Long Island, cat-2 just east of AC

Yeah but still bizarre run and I'm guessing the rotation of the remnant could steer Lee into coast? That would surely buffet nj and NYC with a cat 2 to 1 passing that close. Not eastern side but still.

Not even the rotation, just the presence alone, because it would provide the exact same alley beneath/weakness in the mega North American ridge and allow the next system to follow it right on up.

And yeah, add in new moon tides and it wouldn't be good for the whole region, unfortunately.

rb924119 wrote:And yeah, add in new moon tides and it wouldn't be good for the whole region, unfortunately.

Yeah at least ts force winds reach pretty far inland on that run. Is cmc stuck? And ho..Lee.

CMC is a bit west at hr 60, much stronger ridge in the Atlantic too. Should come in west of 12z. That ridge is key, it's trending stronger and forcing Jose close to the coast

You know the cmc is no longer the model that crazily exaggerates intensity in fact it's the weaker even if euro I've noted. That upgrade helped. I

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:And yeah, add in new moon tides and it wouldn't be good for the whole region, unfortunately.

Yeah at least ts force winds reach pretty far inland on that run. Is cmc stuck? And ho..Lee.

Looks like it, and yeah............I know :/ the unfortunate thing is that the pattern would likely support another East Coast threat, but I'm not really gonna stray too much into that at present aha Jose is enough of a concern right now lol

Yeah I spoke of the next in other thread as this is just for Jose.

CMC is way west, similar to GFS as far as track goes

Maybe a little east of GFS, but huge shift from 12z when it was the east outlier

Sanchize06 wrote:CMC is way west, similar to GFS as far as track goes

Wow thanks. Cmc on tt is acting up. If euro does same we are on. I hear ukmet though is east...

Landfalls on Cape Cod narrowly missing LI

jmanley32 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:CMC is way west, similar to GFS as far as track goes

Wow thanks. Cmc on tt is acting up. If euro does same we are on. I hear ukmet though is east...

Yeah, that did go east. UKMET has went from Florida to NC to OTS lol So even though it did well with Irma, it has been all over the place with Jose

I don't think UKMET is even running yet, Jman, and from the look of the hurricane model it wouldn't support that claim. But we'll see lol back to bed for this guy for a little while, I'll check back in a couple hours.

UKMET

I stand corrected, it is, but the site I use for its extended isn't updated yet.