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Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 15, 2017 1:16 am

Cmc has a huge swath of ts winds way inland. A lot of rain. Nearly identical to gfs. Bad news coming closer this shoes early Tues am.
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Post by rb924119 Fri Sep 15, 2017 2:03 am

00z GFS Ensembles have a hard northwest lean into the region with a strong mean pressure - 975mb. That isn't pretty. The more I think about it, the more I think the east shift of the UKMET is an over-correction and should start incrementally coming back west again, but we'll see. My concerns are certainly raised so far tonight, but let's see what the EURO does......

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Post by rb924119 Fri Sep 15, 2017 2:39 am

Although still a near miss, the EURO Op looks to have made strides toward the other guidance at H5 in my opinion. Less trough and higher heights to the northeast of Jose compared to 12z, with a slight west adjustment and slower speed. Thinking the Ensembles will resemble the Op, but I also think the EURO will continue to correct to have even less trough/higher heights northeast of Jose. Gotta wait and see.

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Post by rb924119 Fri Sep 15, 2017 2:46 am

CFSV2 correcting way west in recent runs, with the most recent showing a split between GFS-type and UKMET-type solutions. They all were well off shore yesterday and before. Interesting, if nothing else.

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Post by rb924119 Fri Sep 15, 2017 2:53 am

WOW BIG SHIFT WEST BY 06z HURRICANE SPAGHETTIS WITH NOW 50+% HITS IN THE VICINITY. Off-hour run, though, proceeding with caution on that. Still raising my eyebrows and level of concern some, though.

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Post by rb924119 Fri Sep 15, 2017 2:57 am

OH GOD THE 00z NAVGEM........not again lol

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Post by rb924119 Fri Sep 15, 2017 3:03 am

Unfortunately, my time to analyze is now over, and I won't be back until this evening. Sorry I can't be around more, but I have work :/ I will still try to follow along with the convo and models during the day when I can, though, so at least I'll stay somewhat up to date.

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Post by Sanchize06 Fri Sep 15, 2017 7:19 am

6z NAVGEM holds from 0z, NJ landfall

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 3 Navgem_z500_mslp_us_24

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Post by EnyapWeather Fri Sep 15, 2017 8:08 am

NJ is now in the cone.(5 am update) Shocked
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Post by amugs Fri Sep 15, 2017 8:11 am

@rb924119 wrote:CFSV2 correcting way west in recent runs, with the most recent showing a split between GFS-type and UKMET-type solutions. They all were well off shore yesterday and before. Interesting, if nothing else.

Rb you are going to nail this kid - all guidance coming around to yuor call - UKIE is dead on so is NAVY!!

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 3 Nvg10_prp_126.namer.thumb.gif.c1ace0ac29bfe79cb2293301a988420d

NAVY would be destructive in a big way for teh coasts days of Trop force onshore winds!!

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Post by Guest Fri Sep 15, 2017 8:42 am

From NHC 5:00 am Jose forecast Discussion.

"the global models are coming into better
agreement on the track of Jose. The UKMET is now more in line with
the other models in keeping the center of Jose offshore of the U.S.
That said, the most recent GFS and ECMWF runs show a farther west
track, so the official track forecast has been shifted about 30 n mi
in that direction."

2. "Jose could produce other direct impacts next week along portions
of the east coast of the United States from North Carolina northward
to New England, but it is too soon to determine what those impacts
might be or where they could occur. Interests along U.S. east coast
from North Carolina northward to New England should monitor the
progress of Jose during the next several days."

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 15, 2017 8:46 am

syosnow94 wrote:From NHC 5:00 am Jose forecast Discussion.

"the global models are coming into better
agreement on the track of Jose. The UKMET is now more in line with
the other models in keeping the center of Jose offshore of the U.S.
That said, the most recent GFS and ECMWF runs show a farther west
track, so the official track forecast has been shifted about 30 n mi
in that direction."

2. "Jose could produce other direct impacts next week along portions
of the east coast of the United States from North Carolina northward
to New England, but it is too soon to determine what those impacts
might be or where they could occur.  Interests along U.S. east coast
from North Carolina northward to New England should monitor the
progress of Jose during the next several days."
Oh boy now the nhc has their attention up. Recon missions today. We will see if that helps with anything.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Sep 15, 2017 9:07 am

It is definitely looking more likely than not at this point we will see some impact from Jose. How great the impact remains to be seen. The trough coming through the western U.S. is pushing the Great Lakes ridge North & East and depending on the timing - it tries to trap Jose off our coast. As mentioned yesterday there is another ridge in the Atlantic on his South & East side, so Jose has little room to wiggle out of. Anywhere from a NJ to LI landfall is on the table, but I am still not as confident he actually makes landfall. Today should be an interesting day of model runs considering Jose is inside the 4-5 day window.

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 3 Gfs_z500a_atl_19

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Post by amugs Fri Sep 15, 2017 9:13 am

YIKES!!

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 3 F108

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 15, 2017 9:21 am

@amugs wrote:YIKES!!

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 3 F108
What model is that? Wow every ensemble in the area wow. Do any make landfall?
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Sep 15, 2017 9:21 am

12z tropical models look east of 06z

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 3 12L_tracks_latest

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Post by amugs Fri Sep 15, 2017 9:23 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:It is definitely looking more likely than not at this point we will see some impact from Jose. How great the impact remains to be seen. The trough coming through the western U.S. is pushing the Great Lakes ridge North & East and depending on the timing - it tries to trap Jose off our coast. As mentioned yesterday there is another ridge in the Atlantic on his South & East side, so Jose has little room to wiggle out of. Anywhere from a NJ to LI landfall is on the table, but I am still not as confident he actually makes landfall. Today should be an interesting day of model runs considering Jose is inside the 4-5 day window.

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 3 Gfs_z500a_atl_19

Frank,

Landfall absolutely up in the air but if he gets close enough to the coast the effects will be be substantial imho - he may even transition to extra tropical as he gets up here from what I am seeing so far. This would expand his wind shield greatly . Time remains to be seen in teh next 48 hours.
One thing for sure I have told family and friends at the shore this morning to get their plans together just in case.

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Post by amugs Fri Sep 15, 2017 9:25 am

6Z GEFS

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 3 12L_gefs_latest

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 15, 2017 9:28 am

@amugs wrote:6Z GEFS

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 3 12L_gefs_latest
Wow look at that clcluster of 960 to 970 mb Jose hitting nj. Would put NYC and east on east side not good. Still many ots but that western cluster has continued to grow in members.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Sep 15, 2017 9:29 am

@amugs wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:It is definitely looking more likely than not at this point we will see some impact from Jose. How great the impact remains to be seen. The trough coming through the western U.S. is pushing the Great Lakes ridge North & East and depending on the timing - it tries to trap Jose off our coast. As mentioned yesterday there is another ridge in the Atlantic on his South & East side, so Jose has little room to wiggle out of. Anywhere from a NJ to LI landfall is on the table, but I am still not as confident he actually makes landfall. Today should be an interesting day of model runs considering Jose is inside the 4-5 day window.

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 3 Gfs_z500a_atl_19

Frank,

Landfall absolutely up in the air but if he gets close enough to the coast the effects will be be substantial imho - he may even transition to extra tropical as he gets up here from what I am seeing so far. This would expand his wind shield greatly . Time remains to be seen in teh next 48 hours.
One thing for sure I have told family and friends at the shore this morning to get their plans together just in case.

For the immediate coast I do think impacts can be substantial as well. It depends on the exact track. Does he come straight from the east? Or more South&East? I think that is a factor. We'll see what happens today. It's a very bizarre set-up which is one reason I can't get fully on board yet.

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Post by sroc4 Fri Sep 15, 2017 9:34 am

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Post by sroc4 Fri Sep 15, 2017 9:46 am

You can see on microwave imagery at the end of the loop Jose is getting its act together today as he moves into more favorable area for development (less shear) as seen by a more defined center at the end of the loop.  He is still over 28-29*C (82-84*F) SST. Plenty warm for further intensification in the next 24-48hrs.  I think peak intensity is Cat 2 for Jose but more likely strong Cat 1.  

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 3 Last24hrs

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 3 Sst10

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 15, 2017 9:49 am

Just wait until the media goes off and even more so any watches go up. Can u imagine the craziness a hurricane watch would bring. Get your shopping done this weekend just in case. Even if it's your normal shop no one wants get stuck in the store for hours.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 15, 2017 9:53 am

@sroc4 wrote:You can see on microwave imagery at the end of the loop Jose is getting its act together today as he moves into more favorable area for development (less shear) as seen by a more defined center at the end of the loop.  He is still over 28-29*C (82-84*F) SST.  Plenty warm for further intensification in the next 24-48hrs.  I think peak intensity is Cat 2 for Jose but more likely strong Cat 1.  

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 3 Last24hrs

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 3 Sst10
He def does look better even on ssttelite u posted. I'm think cat 2 just bc all intensity has been higher this season than forecasted.
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Post by amugs Fri Sep 15, 2017 10:06 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:12z tropical models look east of 06z

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 3 12L_tracks_latest

I would not use these until we are within 24 hours - these complex set ups they cant handle and aren't programmed to especially up here .

12Z runs today of Ukie will be interesting - all models have corrected to the Ukie and Navgem so far.

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