Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

by **jmanley32** Fri Sep 15, 2017 9:53 am

sroc4 wrote:You can see on microwave imagery at the end of the loop Jose is getting its act together today as he moves into more favorable area for development (less shear) as seen by a more defined center at the end of the loop. He is still over 28-29*C (82-84*F) SST. Plenty warm for further intensification in the next 24-48hrs. I think peak intensity is Cat 2 for Jose but more likely strong Cat 1.

He def does look better even on ssttelite u posted. I'm think cat 2 just bc all intensity has been higher this season than forecasted.

by **amugs** Fri Sep 15, 2017 10:06 am

Frank_Wx wrote:12z tropical models look east of 06z

I would not use these until we are within 24 hours - these complex set ups they cant handle and aren't programmed to especially up here .

12Z runs today of Ukie will be interesting - all models have corrected to the Ukie and Navgem so far.

by **amugs** Fri Sep 15, 2017 10:09 am

GEFS - WOW the cluster in SNJ at this time frame and those just inside the BM

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 4 DJxRp-DXoAAxuqt

by **amugs** Fri Sep 15, 2017 10:50 am

New moon Sept 20th to boot!

Current Time: Sep 15, 2017 at 10:50:09 am

Moon Phase Tonight: Waning Crescent

New Moon: Sep 20, 2017 at 1:29 am

by **amugs** Fri Sep 15, 2017 10:53 am

CMC looking like UKIE
12Z suite will be interesting

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 4 Gem_mslp_uv850_neus_18

by **jmanley32** Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:03 am

Recon is enroute. To see if a hurricane again.

by **jmanley32** Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:04 am

Nhc shifted cone now includes all of CT coastal nj nyc

by **hyde345** Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:08 am

Looks to be getting it's act together on visible satellite with an eye trying to form. Should reach hurricane status by 5pm update.

by **skinsfan1177** Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:37 am

All globals are east

by **Sanchize06** Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:42 am

Ridge is a little weaker again on the GFS, will likely be east this run

by **jake732** Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:42 am

Skinns is that a windshield wiper effect or that's the trend to head out to sea?

by **jake732** Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:44 am

And watch the euro be the one to come west:)

by **jmanley32** Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:46 am

Probably just some wiper effect I don't think we are near final solution yet.bfew days still imo

by **weatherwatchermom** Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:58 am

am I looking at the gfs right is this a touch more north and east of this mornings run? out to 96?

by **amugs** Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:03 pm

NOT A DIRECT HIT BUT ITS CLOSE

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 4 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_neus_16

by **Sanchize06** Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:06 pm

Well by hr 120 the blocking is much stronger to the north and east, so there might be a loop coming up on this run

by **amugs** Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:09 pm

He gets captured this run.
Looks to be east to the gulf stream and then get tugged west.
If that rough comes in a few hours faster or is deeper he comes into the coast.

by **sroc4** Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:19 pm

Keep in mind GFS was east with Irma as well at this time frame. Euro has trended west up through 00z. UKIE likely over corrected itself, and expect it to come back west as well.

by **jmanley32** Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:21 pm

Cmc looks about same so far.

by **Sanchize06** Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:24 pm

Ridging seems stronger through 24 on the CMC, this run may come more west lol

by **jmanley32** Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:47 pm

Why is that so slow.

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Sep 15, 2017 1:04 pm

by **jmanley32** Fri Sep 15, 2017 1:07 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:CMC

Is that west of 00z? I can't compare as tt frozen.

by carbomb31 Fri Sep 15, 2017 1:09 pm

Franks any change to ur thoughts or still feel this will just skirt the coast? Southern Monmouth county guy asking

by **sroc4** Fri Sep 15, 2017 1:12 pm

by Guest Fri Sep 15, 2017 1:13 pm

Screw this Jose dude!!! SHOW ME THE CMC HOUR 93 IN JANUARY PLEASE!!!!!!!!!

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Sep 15, 2017 1:13 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:CMC

Is that west of 00z? I can't compare as tt frozen.

Looks east to me

carbomb31 wrote:Franks any change to ur thoughts or still feel this will just skirt the coast? Southern Monmouth county guy asking

Still thinking no landfall. Will come close enough to bring some impact. Heavy rain, wind, beach erosion. Typical Fall Nor'easter I guess you can say. But stronger. We'll see exactly how close he gets.

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