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Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

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Post by amugs Fri Sep 15, 2017 10:09 am

GEFS - WOW the cluster in SNJ at this time frame and those just inside the BM

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 4 DJxRp-DXoAAxuqt

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Post by amugs Fri Sep 15, 2017 10:50 am

New moon Sept 20th to boot!

Current Time: Sep 15, 2017 at 10:50:09 am

Moon Phase Tonight: Waning Crescent

New Moon: Sep 20, 2017 at 1:29 am

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Post by amugs Fri Sep 15, 2017 10:53 am

CMC looking like UKIE
12Z suite will be interesting

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 4 Gem_mslp_uv850_neus_18

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:03 am

Recon is enroute. To see if a hurricane again.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:04 am

Nhc shifted cone now includes all of CT coastal nj nyc
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Post by hyde345 Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:08 am

Looks to be getting it's act together on visible satellite with an eye trying to form. Should reach hurricane status by 5pm update.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:37 am

All globals are east
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Post by Sanchize06 Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:42 am

Ridge is a little weaker again on the GFS, will likely be east this run


Last edited by Sanchize06 on Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:46 am; edited 1 time in total

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Post by jake732 Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:42 am

Skinns is that a windshield wiper effect or that's the trend to head out to sea?
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Post by jake732 Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:44 am

And watch the euro be the one to come west:)
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:46 am

Probably just some wiper effect I don't think we are near final solution yet.bfew days still imo
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Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:58 am

am I looking at the gfs right is this a touch more north and east of this mornings run? out to 96?
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Post by amugs Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:03 pm

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 4 59bbf9234bf81_2017-09-1512_00_17-500mbHgtMSLPNorthAmerica12zGFS.thumb.png.2c5ce7d354be1822cba4737f454eb0ad

NOT A DIRECT HIT BUT ITS CLOSE
Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 4 59bbf9234bf81_2017-09-1512_00_17-500mbHgtMSLPNorthAmerica12zGFS.thumb.png.2c5ce7d354be1822cba4737f454eb0ad

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 4 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_neus_16


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Post by Sanchize06 Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:06 pm

Well by hr 120 the blocking is much stronger to the north and east, so there might be a loop coming up on this run

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Post by amugs Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:09 pm

He gets captured this run.
Looks to be east to the gulf stream and then get tugged west.
If that rough comes in a few hours faster or is deeper he comes into the coast.

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Post by sroc4 Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:19 pm

Keep in mind GFS was east with Irma as well at this time frame. Euro has trended west up through 00z. UKIE likely over corrected itself, and expect it to come back west as well.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:21 pm

Cmc looks about same so far.
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Post by Sanchize06 Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:24 pm

Ridging seems stronger through 24 on the CMC, this run may come more west lol

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:47 pm

Why is that so slow.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Sep 15, 2017 1:04 pm

CMC

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 4 59bc04494c8b8.thumb.png.945e7e3314173e1992d3f30a4743a810

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 4 59bc0451cdea3.thumb.png.a1d15b021729aeedd30b41bdb617a175

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 15, 2017 1:07 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:CMC

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 4 59bc04494c8b8.thumb.png.945e7e3314173e1992d3f30a4743a810

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 4 59bc0451cdea3.thumb.png.a1d15b021729aeedd30b41bdb617a175
Is that west of 00z? I can't compare as tt frozen.
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Post by carbomb31 Fri Sep 15, 2017 1:09 pm

Franks any change to ur thoughts or still feel this will just skirt the coast? Southern Monmouth county guy asking

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Post by sroc4 Fri Sep 15, 2017 1:12 pm

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 4 GZ_D5_PN_120_0000

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Post by Guest Fri Sep 15, 2017 1:13 pm

Screw this Jose dude!!! SHOW ME THE CMC HOUR 93 IN JANUARY PLEASE!!!!!!!!!

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Sep 15, 2017 1:13 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:CMC

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 4 59bc04494c8b8.thumb.png.945e7e3314173e1992d3f30a4743a810

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 4 59bc0451cdea3.thumb.png.a1d15b021729aeedd30b41bdb617a175
Is that west of 00z? I can't compare as tt frozen.

Looks east to me

@carbomb31 wrote:Franks any change to ur thoughts or still feel this will just skirt the coast?  Southern Monmouth county guy asking

Still thinking no landfall. Will come close enough to bring some impact. Heavy rain, wind, beach erosion. Typical Fall Nor'easter I guess you can say. But stronger. We'll see exactly how close he gets.

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