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Post by amugs Sat Sep 30, 2017 8:27 am

Okay here is the 1st date of average snowfall map for our area and the USA!!
Long Range Thread 15.0  - Page 2 Img_2082

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Oct 02, 2017 12:37 am

@amugs wrote:Okay here is the 1st date of average snowfall map for our area and the USA!!
Long Range Thread 15.0  - Page 2 Img_2082

Mugs:

Is this average for the first Trace of snow, or measurable snow?
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Post by amugs Mon Oct 02, 2017 7:04 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@amugs wrote:Okay here is the 1st date of average snowfall map for our area and the USA!!
Long Range Thread 15.0  - Page 2 Img_2082


Is this average for the first Trace of snow, or measurable snow?

Good question. Honestly don't know it just said from the site average time period of 1st snowfall.
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Post by amugs Mon Oct 02, 2017 11:45 am

Long Range Thread 15.0  - Page 2 Gfs_asnow_namer_41

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Post by amugs Mon Oct 02, 2017 11:54 am

NINA - stay EAST BASED YOU!!!!!!!!!!
                         
 1.2            3                 3.4              4
13SEP2017     19.7-0.7     24.0-0.9     26.1-0.6     28.7 0.0
20SEP2017     19.3-1.1     23.9-1.0     26.3-0.4     28.7 0.0
27SEP2017     19.5-1.0     24.4-0.5     26.5-0.2     28.4-0.2

Long Range Thread 15.0  - Page 2 Wkxzteq_all

Lots of warm PAC Water by the dateline and just east though you see a cold tongue trying to move west

Long Range Thread 15.0  - Page 2 Sstanim

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Post by algae888 Mon Oct 02, 2017 4:45 pm

mugs this nina is not like 2007-8 look at the how much warmer the whole pac is....
Long Range Thread 15.0  - Page 2 Anomnight.1.3_2008.thumb.gif.fb8cd16bc48f6b5c6882a41fae5948c2
Long Range Thread 15.0  - Page 2 Anomnight.9.26.2007
Long Range Thread 15.0  - Page 2 Anomnight.9.28.2017

so while we may end up with a weak to moderate nina will our sensible weather end up la nina like. ie; s/e ridge western trough? i am not sold on this winter acting like a typical nina. pac to warm.
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Post by algae888 Mon Oct 02, 2017 4:50 pm

if i had to make an educated guess att i would say warmer than normal temps and +snowfall for our area. why go against the trend of the last several winters.
gfs close to our first fantasy storm....
Long Range Thread 15.0  - Page 2 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_52
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Post by amugs Mon Oct 02, 2017 5:22 pm

Al,
East based Nina''s are good for the North East and MA regions with a Easterly QBO. Not all the ingredients for a bang bang winter but two in the right camp. PDO looks like a horeshoe or warmth overall. Still time. Looks like middle of the month changes to get things interesting in a dynamical fall way.

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Post by amugs Mon Oct 02, 2017 5:52 pm

The HP over the Gulf of Alaska retrogrades west and breaks down thus giving a PNA spike in the west and a trough in the east. Loops to happen mid month if models aren't rushing this.

Long Range Thread 15.0  - Page 2 Figure10

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Post by amugs Mon Oct 02, 2017 6:11 pm

MJO PULSE going from phase 4 which is a warm east coast to a 5 along with a big easterly wind burst thus throwing the SOI buggy positive
MJO phases Long Range Thread 15.0  - Page 2 Ecmf_p10

Phase 5 map
Long Range Thread 15.0  - Page 2 Screen12


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Post by dkodgis Wed Oct 04, 2017 1:33 pm

Who remembers when the upper Hudson Valley gets its first freeze?
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Oct 09, 2017 8:04 am

SE Ridge is not backing down. Another week of mild temperatures. Though by the end of the week looks like there will be an onshore flow keeping temps in the 60's, but it will still be humid. By Saturday, could get to 80 again.

Long Range Thread 15.0  - Page 2 Gfs_z500aNorm_namer_23

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 10, 2017 6:36 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:SE Ridge is not backing down. Another week of mild temperatures. Though by the end of the week looks like there will be an onshore flow keeping temps in the 60's, but it will still be humid. By Saturday, could get to 80 again.

Long Range Thread 15.0  - Page 2 Gfs_z500aNorm_namer_23
This is nuts I know one place that's loving it. The electric companies cuz so many are still using ac. I for one am not and I read on another forum that warmth could last into nov. And from there not completely sure. I'm not a global warming person but what do you call this? It's not the first year.
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Post by HectorO Tue Oct 10, 2017 4:33 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:SE Ridge is not backing down. Another week of mild temperatures. Though by the end of the week looks like there will be an onshore flow keeping temps in the 60's, but it will still be humid. By Saturday, could get to 80 again.

Long Range Thread 15.0  - Page 2 Gfs_z500aNorm_namer_23
This is nuts I know one place that's loving it. The electric companies cuz so many are still using ac. I for one am not and I read on another forum that warmth could last into nov. And from there not completely sure. I'm not a global warming person but what do you call this? It's not the first year.

Meteorologists must have seen something. Before September got under way they were calling for a warm fall. I like stopped using my A.C but I had to use it yesterday to draw out some of the humidity.
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Post by rb924119 Tue Oct 10, 2017 6:27 pm

For those that would like to expand on this please use this as a springboard, but we have an interesting and fantastic educational situation unfolding with regard to our general pattern over the next couple of weeks; one that I've been waiting for to show its face. I'm referencing the discussion of what makes a particular atmospheric "player" a pattern driver versus a pattern enhancer. As Scott as has pointed out several days ago, and reiterating my previous points in addition to his, the SOI has been in a very persistent basestate for some time now, which promotes time-mean ridging in eastern North America, much like we are seeing in the modeling over the next two weeks. However, the MJO is unanimously progged to enter strongly into phases 4 and 5. Phase promotes widespread cool across the CONUS, while 5 promotes more significant cold east of the Mississippi in the month of October. This is in complete contrast to the recent stretch of ++SOI values, which begs the question: Which way will our pattern go? Will it follow the ridging induced by the SOI, or, the troughing evidenced by the strong MJO pulse? The answer is not necessarily mutually exclusive; rather, an "if-then" and "but". If you look at the trends in the modeling, you can clearly see how the ~Day 6-8 troughing is trending increasingly stronger as it comes into the East, supporting the simultaneous traversal of the poten MJO pulse into Phase 5. However, also note that this trough is both transient and surrounded by a "sea of warmth" in the time-mean, supported by the ++SOI. When looking at the mean temperatures over the next two weeks, you can see that even with this trough trending stronger thanks to the MJO, the temperature anomalies remain strongly positive, owing to the ++SOI. My point? This shows that the much larger SOI, which encompasses the entirety of the tropical Pacific, is a much larger influence on our synoptic pattern (a driver), than the MJO, which only incorporates/occupies *one section* of the tropical Pacific at any given time (a pattern enhancer).

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Oct 11, 2017 9:21 am

@rb924119 wrote:For those that would like to expand on this please use this as a springboard, but we have an interesting and fantastic educational situation unfolding with regard to our general pattern over the next couple of weeks; one that I've been waiting for to show its face. I'm referencing the discussion of what makes a particular atmospheric "player" a pattern driver versus a pattern enhancer. As Scott as has pointed out several days ago, and reiterating my previous points in addition to his, the SOI has been in a very persistent basestate for some time now, which promotes time-mean ridging in eastern North America, much like we are seeing in the modeling over the next two weeks. However, the MJO is unanimously progged to enter strongly into phases 4 and 5. Phase promotes widespread cool across the CONUS, while 5 promotes more significant cold east of the Mississippi in the month of October. This is in complete contrast to the recent stretch of ++SOI values, which begs the question: Which way will our pattern go? Will it follow the ridging induced by the SOI, or, the troughing evidenced by the strong MJO pulse? The answer is not necessarily mutually exclusive; rather, an "if-then" and "but". If you look at the trends in the modeling, you can clearly see how the ~Day 6-8 troughing is trending increasingly stronger as it comes into the East, supporting the simultaneous traversal of the poten MJO pulse into Phase 5. However, also note that this trough is both transient and surrounded by a "sea of warmth" in the time-mean, supported by the ++SOI. When looking at the mean temperatures over the next two weeks, you can see that even with this trough trending stronger thanks to the MJO, the temperature anomalies remain strongly positive, owing to the ++SOI. My point? This shows that the much larger SOI, which encompasses the entirety of the tropical Pacific, is a much larger influence on our synoptic pattern (a driver), than the MJO, which only incorporates/occupies *one section* of the tropical Pacific at any given time (a pattern enhancer).

Great post. I agree with everything. There will be times over the next 2 weeks (not including this one) where we'll see fall-like and possibly below normal temps. But it will be very transient. There is a sign from the GEFS we could get into a stretch of fall weather around Halloween. But that is very far down the road and could change.

Long Range Thread 15.0  - Page 2 Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_62

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Post by sroc4 Wed Oct 11, 2017 9:25 am

@jmanley32 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:SE Ridge is not backing down. Another week of mild temperatures. Though by the end of the week looks like there will be an onshore flow keeping temps in the 60's, but it will still be humid. By Saturday, could get to 80 again.

Long Range Thread 15.0  - Page 2 Gfs_z500aNorm_namer_23
This is nuts I know one place that's loving it. The electric companies cuz so many are still using ac. I for one am not and I read on another forum that warmth could last into nov. And from there not completely sure. I'm not a global warming person but what do you call this? It's not the first year.

Obviously In recent years warmer than normal relative to "Avg", meaning the 1981-2010 averages temp anomalies have plagued us.  However; what we are experiencing right now is not all that unusual given the current status of the Trop Pac.  A persistent SOI and La Nina like base state, although we are not currently officially in a La Nina and may not truly get there, has been a primary driver to our weather pattern as of late, as Ray stated above, with very little esle going on on a large scale to alter said pattern. Tropics are quite strat doesnt come into play for another 1-1.5months etc.  BTW great post Ray.  Also like Ray mentioned a very strong pulse in the MJO region from 4 where we are now (warm in the east) into 5 and maybe 6 is unanimously forecasted right now. I personally believe the base state of the emerging weak La Nina will dominate the overall pattern, but the MJO pulse will give us our shots of transient below normal weather in the 7-14d.  Also the possible recurving typhoon in the 6-10d, if comes to fruition, will likely become a fly in the ointment, or short term pattern enhancer/modifier as well.  So with that said the persistent ridging the Eastern half the country has been experiencing, and that is forecasted to continue to be where the pattern settles back into after our transients cool shots, and will likely cont until we get later in the season when wavelengths shorten, and other pattern enhancers/drivers come into play.  

FWIW.  JB on the Bell posted this yesterday.  Here are the temp anomalies through the Month of Oct thus far as well as the temp anomalies for the same time frame through Oct in 2013.  Pretty much identical.  

Long Range Thread 15.0  - Page 2 Ncep_c10
Long Range Thread 15.0  - Page 2 Conus_10


Oct 2013 we were headed into a similar ENSO period as we are forecasted to this season as well.  IE: A neg neutral ENSO that remained weakly negative throughout the season as seen on the ONI.  So a negatively leaning neutral ENSO period which might happen this year as well.  Just some food for thought.  

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

Long Range Thread 15.0  - Page 2 Oni10


Last edited by sroc4 on Wed Oct 11, 2017 10:10 am; edited 1 time in total

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by sroc4 Wed Oct 11, 2017 9:28 am

Great minds think alike Frank

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by amugs Wed Oct 11, 2017 10:47 am

Siberian Snow Cover Extent
Long Range Thread 15.0  - Page 2 IMG_20171011_101907.thumb.jpg.2295f23ab0c1914ce09539bfdc8c5d68

We are starting to see teh first signs of a strat warming event for wave 1 starting to shape up to perturb our PV by about months end
Long Range Thread 15.0  - Page 2 IMG_20171011_101923.thumb.jpg.be66746e6a8258c8ebf6b08f14b126e5

Coincides with this chart for the AO as well
Long Range Thread 15.0  - Page 2 DLyKZULXUAA0ZiC

SUN
Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 2 days
2017 total: 58 days (21%)
comparison
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
This Coronal Hole is facing Earth and may bring some effects to teh Northern Lattitudes tomorrow
Long Range Thread 15.0  - Page 2 Ch_oct11

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Post by amugs Fri Oct 20, 2017 11:35 pm

This is a good look of red over Western Gland region with a nice PNA !!

Long Range Thread 15.0  - Page 2 Ecmwf_z500a_namer_11

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Post by algae888 Sat Oct 21, 2017 9:12 am

@amugs wrote:This is a good look of red over Western Gland region with a nice PNA !!

Long Range Thread 15.0  - Page 2 Ecmwf_z500a_namer_11
Yes mugs and looks to have staying power. Check out the EPO and where it's headed very negative with the recurving typhoon influence.  November looks to start cold. pattern change on the way peeps


Last edited by algae888 on Sat Oct 21, 2017 9:14 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by algae888 Sat Oct 21, 2017 9:13 am

The first Cold Shot midweek looks to say mainly West and southwest of us but it will eventually get here
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Post by algae888 Sat Oct 21, 2017 9:18 am

Basically days 5 through 7 below normal eight through 10 slightly above normal and day 10+ looks to be significantly below normal Temps with a negative EPO and the ridge bridge over top. Check out today's 6z GEFS. That's a nice look wish that was early December instead of early November
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Post by algae888 Sat Oct 21, 2017 1:13 pm

Get ready for some winter weather in about a week to ten days. All major models mighty cold. Could see some white too!! Very Happy
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Post by frank 638 Sat Oct 21, 2017 1:31 pm

bring it on its almost nov and it still warm out some trees has color on them i am tired of this spring weather we should have this in april and may not now .bring on the cold frost cooler conditions i can not wait

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