Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

[algae888]

no sign of the gulf of Alaska low which would flood Canada and the U. S. with warmth. clearly very different than the last two years.

[Frank_Wx]

Notice as westerlies formed over the Dateline we saw slight warming in Nino region 3.4. That is unlikely to last as we're still in a La Nina base state and easterlies are likely to regain power toward the 2nd week of NOV.





Also, I will not be issuing a Winter Outlook this year. Time does not allow it. Extensive research has to go into these outlooks to gather all the facts. I will leave it to the pro's to handle.

[Math23x7]

Any contest thread this year?

[Radz]

Any contest thread this year?

Don't think we ever found out who won last year

[sroc4]

Interesting fight showing up in the md and LR.  MJO once again at the for front of the conversation.  GEFS regular and corrected  followed by the EPS regular and corrected.  Don't be surprised if the cold shots in the Md and LR end up warmer overall towards seasonal.  Right now I still see the cold shots as simply transient.  Don't have time to go into full detail but I'm already saving images for down the road.  -EPO is a great tele to have on our side but without the +PNA, -NAO and -AO and the trough off the west coast interacting with the core of the cold in Canada there is an escape rout for the discharge of the cold via -EPO blocking to escape off the west coast of the CONUS and to the NE into the NAO domain.  Fortunately there has been a relaxation of a sorts to the La Nina forcings keeping the SE ridge weak, but that looks to possibly change over the next few weeks.  Again MJO wave propagation important here.

[sroc4]

Here is the problem:  Take a look at what the 500mb Euro Ensembles have for 00z Nov 14th.  Once again notice the Blues(toughing) in the NW CONUS/W Canada.  




Don't believe me.  Think back to last winter Feb 2017.  -EPO, -WPO, +AO, +NAO with weak La Nina base state with a persistent trough off the west coast that interacted with the Canadian trough.  Result?  A mean 500MB pattern that looked like this:




My point here is be really careful how much stock we put into any significant cold this month.  I expect a few transient shots but when all is said and done expect a warm month overall.  IF the MJO does in fact get into phase 2 then a decent cold shot is def possible.  The past 7days the GFS has actually been better at handling the MJO outcome so the cool shot coming in a week or so may be real.

[Guest]

We're not looking at another month as ridiculously above average for November as October was are we?

[frank 638]

I don't know if anyone reads Joe cioffi Facebook anyway on his long range forecast he thinks by next Friday night we could have temperatures in the 20s even all the way down to the coast that's including NYC Long Island

[frank 638]

i also forgot to mention in the longrange for mid to late nov we could have temps below norm to slightly above norm .hopefully we are going in a right direction as we get closer to winter because i am sick of these spring temps already

[amugs]

Gfs temp next Fri night wowza freezer

[Math23x7]

Gfs temp next Fri night wowza freezer

Keep in mind that the GFS OP has a tendency to overdo cold air in the mid-long range.

[algae888]

Gfs temp next Fri night wowza freezer

Yes mugs are first arctic front of the season. Nws disco...

There is still the notion that Pacific energy aloft should bring clouds and at least a slight chance of rain Tue afternoon into Tue night, and went with a GFS/ECMWF compromise during this time frame. If there is precipitation Tuesday night, there could even be some mixing in of snow well inland as a colder air mass will be building in. The high builds in for the middle of the week. It is now looking more likely that a freeze will occur for much of the area Thursday night. Temperatures have been lowered in the forecast. The next system then looks to be an arctic frontal passage, and as a result, forecast high temperatures have been lowered significantly from guidance on Friday, with lows in the 20s and 30s Thu night, and highs only in the 40s on Fri. There could be some flurries with the passage of the front.

[algae888]

By the 11th of this month we should be below normal temp wise which is contrary to all lr guidance and lr forecasters. This is what a -epo/wpo can do with favorable mjo phases. If those features persist through winter we can expect some very cold periods which is unlike the last two winters

[algae888]

The cfs model which had a blowtorch end of November beginning of December now shows a negative AO and positive PNA during that same time frame with much more seasonable temperatures

[amugs]

Gfs temp next Fri night wowza freezer

Keep in mind that the GFS OP has a tendency to overdo cold air in the mid-long range.

Mike yes BUT look at the synoptic 's of the pattern and so if it is 4*F to cold it is still a frigging cold look after what we have been through temp wise. Wil the SE Ridge buold back after is a question or shall it be beaten back or pushed more east. The trough on the west coast retrograde's future west which argues for a trough on the east coast allowing a N to slightly POS PNA Ridge to form

[amugs]

Here is the snow that will be buold in like an ark in the hinterland of Canada. This will have a major effect downstream with the N EPO and WPO come the latter part of Nov into early Dec unlike the past few years where Canada toruched.


And the GEFS showing we may go after recoed lows latter part of the week for Friday and Saturday in some area maybe even NYC, MAYBE!!

[frank 638]

It is about time and I cannot wait till we get into December and the winter hopefully this will be our turn for a great winter

[aiannone]

Just some eye candy from the CMC lol

[algae888]

and the gfs...

[algae888]

cfs monthly went from this

Wednesday 12z  

to this. for december

[algae888]

this is what we are looking to see. I could care less about sensible weather on nov. 5th(although I will always welcome snow )


top image we do not want. look at all the blue over the pole and GL. that is where we were/are. bottom image has a -EPO, -AO, -NAO. this is what we want asp as we head towards dec. even though it looks warm on bottom panel for us , a look like that on jan 1st would be much different in our neck of the woods. this switch has been on guidance now for several days. let's see if this holds. i'll keep saying this, I love the -EPO/WPO ridge that has been a consistent feature for days now and looks to continue throughout ensembles (16 days). no let up I n sight.


strong signal there with smoothing on ensemble guidance.

[Radz]

Glad to see the torch forecasts fading and a more seasonal pattern taking shape in the medium range, a 7-10 day period of at or below normal temps would go a long way to erase the warm October blues... lets hope the trend continues

[amugs]

GEFS are hinting at this as well


A HUGGEEE HP over Siberia always argues for a trough over the east and a N AO - look at that over the pole - give me this sin JAN and we are 0 or below peeps!!

[sroc4]

this is what we are looking to see. I could care less about sensible weather on nov. 5th(although I will always welcome snow )


top image we do not want. look at all the blue over the pole and GL. that is where we were/are. bottom image has a -EPO, -AO, -NAO. this is what we want asp as we head towards dec.  even though it looks warm on bottom panel for us , a look like that on jan 1st would be much different in our neck of the woods. this switch has been on guidance now for several days. let's see if this holds.

Al be careful.  The maps your using above are the Mean Surface Low Pressure Anomalies and not the 500mb Anomalies.  The bottom image you show above would be warm in January or at any time of year for the east with a dominant HP in that position.  This would put us in a deep SW flow at the surface and when you look at the upperlevels you will see that is a deep SW flow aloft as well.  We want that HP centered N of the great lakes and not off the SE coast.   If we look at the concurrent 500mb maps for the image you posted above you will see we have the -WPO and maybe weakly negative EPO but the AO is positive and the NAO is likely either neutral at best but probably positive as well as the ensemble spread is likely leading to the positive looking heights over Greenland.   The PNA region is also negative for the image you have above which as you can see promotes the SE ridge in the east and SW flow aloft and at the surface in the east.  








Below is an example of what we want to start seeing if we are to get the cold air to infiltrate with any real staying power.  The -PNA has been and will continue to be a thorn in our side this month and likely into early Dec.  Again a favorable MJO impulse can influence the mean pattern such that a transient pull back of the western trough could allow a ridge to go up in the PNA region.  With the -WPO and -EPO locked in for the time being as Al points out if there is any ridging in the west the cold air spills east even with a +NAO and +AO.  We will likely see this happen heading into next weekend.  Like has been said by Al and Mugs(also Al), Al squared) Canada is building cold and snow so when we get the cold to come it should be cold!   What I will say is there is a chance that the ridge bridge being showed in the image below at the 500mb level would likely promote HP dominating over Siberia.  This might give us a really good chance at a true wave 1 or wave 2 attack on our strat. and increased chances at a SSWE headed into early part of Dec.  I'm still confident that Nov will likely end the month normal 2-5+ above normal T, but we will see.  Remember if you see an amplified MJO forecast ask yourself does the LR model forecast agree or disagree with it.  If the MJO forecast remains consistently amplified in the colder phases expect the models to correct to that.  If the MJOP looks to go into warm phases expect the models to correct to that.  And if we get a SSWE once again expect model mayhem until we get closer.  

[algae888]

Yes Scott I understand what you're saying but I would still like to see high pressure over the pole in Greenland which should be in conjunction with upper level Ridge. Also by January the wavelengths will be much longer and allow the cold air to come east that weird looking tucked in negative PNA right now will not look the same in January with the negative wpo / EPO and I very much disagree that November will be + 2 to + 5 I'm looking more zero two plus two. The GFS and CMC have come back to the euro idea of arctic front next week and most long-range guidance looks cold Beyond day 7 and stormy at that with the mjo it looks to be in The Circle of Death for the foreseeable future so very little influence on the pattern there. Just my two cents. what's looking eerily similar is 1995 flip from the very warm October to the very cold November through the rest of the winter not saying that's going to happen this year and very highly unlikely too but if guidance is correct looks eerily similar

[algae888]

I would also note that all long-range guidance for November the CFS the Canadian ships model and other guidance including you Euro weeklies look nothing like the pattern that we are in and headed towards. All three of the ones I mentioned were torches for November and December included at least the start. That's a very positive sign for me that they do not have a handle on what happening at 500 millibars

[amugs]

Scott - the GFS & GEFS love to (and it is noted by mets - PB, JD, JH, HM, BA) )stick a N on the WC and hold back the cold in the east during this perturbation in the atmosphere of changing seasons or transition. If you look at this from yesterdays run in the means on the OP GFS model this what it had.


to this


In the image you show above that is a N WPO and a Neutral EPO
with a Neutral PNA and a slight - NAO albeit weak but there so it may be fighting itself here.

So as you point out changes in models will be the rule and norm
If we go into the MJO pahses as per GEFS - we are warm, if we go via EURO we are about normal



Good news on the solar front as well


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